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Far from the realm of politics, there is the possibility that Trump’s victory will constitute a fundamental change in the relationship of the United States with the rest of the countries, since his victory could suggest to others that Washington has abandoned its aspirations to assume leadership in the world. This heralds a period of chaos and raging conflict, as states resort to the law of the jungle and compete for survival. A new term for Trump may prove what many fear: … America’s power is a thing of the past.
Trump’s first term provides a comprehensive guide to what will come next. Under his leadership, the United States withdrew from some of its key commitments. The US president determined the course of the confrontation with China and pursued an inconsistent policy with Russia, while the administration’s close and exceptional relationship with Israel, in addition to its association with the Gulf states, accelerated the process of transformation of the US policy. Middle East. The question of the creation of a Palestinian state was put aside and the focus was shifted towards the creation of balanced alliances against Iran and Turkey.
Trump and his advisers have a worldview that, while immature, is for the most part consistent. A vision embodied in the slogan “America first”, and in a vision that presents the world as a scene of commercial and military competition, in which the United States has no friends, but simply interests. Despite its starkness, this vision is a reflection of what historian Arthur Schlesinger referred to 25 years ago as the desire to “return to the womb.” Schlesinger underestimated the importance of the United States being a permanent force in the world, sometimes driven by its values toward external ties. Yet the isolationist drive, especially in its inherent and hostile manifestations, has been around for a long time. However, Trump simply expressed one of his versions, which is the view that others are playing the role of Americans as fools, that international institutions are shameful tools in the hands of those who want to undermine the sovereignty of the United States, and that bloodshed and terror elsewhere cannot really affect a giant republic surrounded by two great oceans and weak states.
Style and content
Trump’s first term was marked by arrogance, name calling, and fabricating disagreements with allies, as well as cajoling dictatorships. It was also characterized by administrative inefficiency, which was compounded by the Republican Party’s unwillingness to work in the field of foreign policy. So the second term is an issue that requires thinking in terms of content (management policies) and style (management style and its employees).
From a political point of view, the greatest suspicion relates to Trump’s desire to be re-elected to ensure his place in history, a motive well known to presidents in their second term. Usually the president tries to fulfill his wish by looking for big deals: Israeli-Palestinian peace is always preferable. For Trump, it’s fair to say that the big deals were central to his character as a businessman that brought his accumulated business wisdom to the realm of government. The biggest deal it could conclude is trade negotiations with China, which would also mitigate growing strategic tension between the two countries. As for the less important agreements, they can include an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement or a reconciliation with Russia. To secure these deals, Trump may be willing to compromise a lot. In fact, no negotiation is available with these grand deals, and the rivalry between Washington and Beijing has been rooted not only in the geopolitical logic of a rising China, but also in the deep mutual suspicion and desire of Chinese President Xi. Jinping, to purge his region of American influence. Even if Trump wants to reach an agreement, Beijing is likely to refuse to come to the table with him.
America can become a monument, not a failed state, but a failed vision, a colossal force in decline.
At the same time, the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are unlikely to produce better results than the Palestinians could have achieved under the Clinton administration (and far worse), and there is no doubt that they will fail to fulfill their aspirations for a demilitarized state with Jerusalem as the capital. . Here the style stands out. Trump’s rhetoric toward traditional allies is an almost constant insult – he certainly doesn’t pay much attention to their interests or concerns. Although you may think that the United States is really capable of moving forward on its own, you will find that it is difficult to reach an agreement with China that is opposed by major Asian allies, or to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace while Arab regimes remain behind. their luck, or negotiate a deal with Russia if they are. Europe opposes it.
Even more important, Trump will always find himself in limbo due to his lack of managerial competence. Frustrated by the bureaucracy, he will realize that foreign policy work is not simply done by the White House. Unmanned or inefficient bureaucracies always impede the conduct of business, both intentionally and unintentionally. Trump’s hand will not be completely tied; If you order US forces deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq, or even Europe, to return to the country, that will happen (it seems remarkable that stakeholders have managed to slowly push you toward the withdrawal of forces from Syria). But if you insist, you can withdraw them and cancel those commitments (such a reduction would once again feed your peacemaker image). There is no reason to believe that Trump’s arrogance, self-pity, inconsistency, narcissism, hostility, and powerlessness will disappear after his miraculous victory over his Democratic opponent. His shaky and volatile version of “America First” would do far more damage than traditional “back to the womb” isolation.
Law of the jungle
While the Trump presidency has been troublesome and bad in the way it tarnished America’s reputation, the outcome will be far worse for those who have been the most critical of the president. This means returning to a world where there is no law other than the law of the jungle. A world closer to the chaos of the 1920s and 1930s, but worse, where no country is present and willing to come to the aid. Or rather, the world will become monistic-radical, in which all instruments of power can be legitimized under the pretext of necessity. Countries will be more inclined to possess nuclear weapons and will reconsider resorting to assassinations, biological weapons and routine sabotage as a means of achieving security.
As a superpower, the United States will be seriously weakened in a context of internal conflict. Winning a second term for Trump by cracking down on voters, the elusiveness of the Electoral College, and the deft maneuvering of Republican politicians can result in an unstable political system. The Republican Party, as it stands now, is doomed to demographic failure, especially as it draws its greatest support from a narrow and aging segment of the electorate. Politically motivated violence has happened on American streets and there may be more. A civil war may not break out immediately, but we can imagine political leaders being targeted and killed by supporters on either side, all at the instigation of the victorious Trump and his angry opponents and extremists. Of course, America’s foreign opponents will find ways to start the fires.
The major consequences of the second Trump administration are difficult to predict. Another state that could transform the way everyone views America. Since its inception, this country has been the land of the future, the destination of business prosperity, and a promising place regardless of its failures and tribulations. In his second term, he may become a mere monument, not in a failed state, but a failed vision, a colossal force in decline whose time has come and is over. The United States faced such a radical makeover of its image before, when the Civil War questioned the country’s existence as a unified nation and the Great Depression cast doubt on its political and economic model. Either way, the extraordinary presidents were inspired by the ideals of the nation’s founders, keenly aware of the need to lead Americans toward a better future. For this reason, some of President Abraham Lincoln’s key legislation has focused on opening up to the West, and for the same reason, President Franklin Roosevelt assured Americans that they have nothing to fear but fear itself.
Then came Trump’s slogan: “Give America back its greatness.” The president has come under the influence of a vision of decadence that undermines all the good America can do in the world. Surprisingly, Trump’s vision of greatness lacks substance, and his political appeal rests on resentment, loss, fear of disqualification, and even despair. A second term means that the United States will enter a deep and multifaceted crisis similar to the crises of the 1750s and 1830s. But this time, the country will have a leader who is powerless because of his narcissism, his incompetence and, even more, his lack of understanding what one of his Republican predecessors has often called “the last and best hope for man.”
(On Foreign Relations – Adapted)
Gone are the days of “global leadership”
Trump’s victory may be narrowly underestimated in three states as a fluke. A second term may herald the worst for outside observers: Either the system is fundamentally flawed, or the United States has experienced some kind of moral collapse. Either way, his days as a world leader are over. And the country that built international institutions, affirmed the basic values of freedom and the rule of law, and supported allies, will disappear. America will remain a great power, of course, but of a completely different kind.
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