The effect of the Likud split on the Zionist scene

Gideon Sa’ar, a member of the Knesset of the ruling Likud Party, headed by current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, announced his defection from the party and the formation of a new political party, to compete in the upcoming Israeli parliamentary elections. Sa’ar had submitted his resignation from his previous Likud party, which is a legal necessity under the law of parliamentary blocs.

Before getting into the effects of the measure and its repercussions on the Zionist political scene, we must pause on the personality of Gideon Sa’ar and his political history, as Sa’ar is considered a member of the Likud party, which grew up in the core of the party and was the leader of his youth, qualifying him for a 16th Knesset seat in 2003. For the Likud bloc led by Sharon, who was 37 at the time.

Saar remained with Netanyahu in the Likud party after Sharon’s split and the formation of the Kadima party, and he gained the 17th Knesset membership in 2006 under Netanyahu’s leadership, and also continued to work in the Likud under the leadership of Netanyahu until the party returned to power in 2009, after Netanyahu managed to form a government through a coalition. The oath is carried out by the Kadima party headed by Foreign Minister Tzivi Livni, who won first place in the elections.

Sa’ar continued to work in the party, but left the official political arena in 2014 and returned to it in 2019, to compete with Netanyahu for the leadership of the Likud party in the internal primaries for the 2019 parliamentary elections, and suffered a heavy defeat. versus Netanyahu, but won an outpost, fourth on the list. Likud, and remained at odds with Netanyahu until he broke up on his own without any other influential members. The Likud and the Israeli right-wing public believe that Netanyahu is the one who returned them to power and held it for more than a decade.

Sa’ar was not the party’s first dissident after his return to power. Moshe Kahlon preceded him, who ran in the 21st elections with a separate Likud party, until he returned to the party, but the difference here is Kahlon’s participation in a government led by Netanyahu, but the new dissident Gideon Sa’er He He did not accept, as his fight mainly against Netanyahu corruption.

It cannot be ignored that Sa’ar has created an influential variable on the Israeli political scene, with the escalation of talks about the imminent holding of elections, the fourth in two years, in March next year. According to initial polls, he won a large number of votes, reaching 17 seats in the next Knesset (although it is too early to confirm the accuracy of the polls), which poses a real threat to Netanyahu’s ability to form a low-right government. your leadership; When two of the Israeli right-wing affiliates joined the Sa’ar party, the conversation intensified about former Chief of Staff Eisenkot joining the Sa’ar in the party.

The first to be affected by Sa’ar’s movement is the right-wing party led by Bennett. The voices fleeing the Likud now will not betray it. On the contrary, Sa’ar will be able to gnaw on his growing popularity, just as the Blue and White party faces a real threat of ending the political scene, after he failed to be a replacement for Netanyahu; It is also likely that Sa’ar will be able to attract circles from the center of the camp, and thus it is possible that, according to experience and historical estimation, he has ten seats, in which he has the ability to maneuver and represent the Qabban egg that decodes the scene politics.

The aforementioned effects, most of them are linked to the possibility of holding parliamentary elections in the next three months, but Netanyahu still has more cards that would destroy the new Sa’ar party, by moving towards a concession to the Blue and White party, It also suffers the possibility of failure and passing the budget, which means continuing. Political stability for a longer period gives Netanyahu ample opportunity to eliminate the rising party, especially since he has long experience in the affairs of his dissident Sa’ar.

Despite what Sa’ar has done on the Israeli political scene over the past few days, Netanyahu continues to lead the scene according to opinion polls, and he has the cards of the game and the chance to top the current scene with what he serves. It is too early to speak of the end of the Netanyahu era.