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The Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa published the “complete political history of the virtual Hariri government”.
The Prime Minister-designate, Saad Hariri, arrived last night at the Baabda Palace with two envelopes: the first included a government formation of 18 ministers and the second contained the CVs of the group of ministers he appointed, and the size of the scientific and professional competence. The accompanying name, and questions and clarifications about many of them were exchanged, before Aoun gave his observations on the process of distribution of the bags, promising to study this formation and give an answer on it. Aoun calmed his resentment over Hariri’s failure to comply with an understanding reached last Monday that the next meeting (yesterday) would be to put together a comprehensive proposal, and based on Hariri’s first proposal on the distribution of portfolios between sects. and sects, and then an agreement on names. But what happened is that Hariri brought with him a whole variety of bags and names, and Aoun’s initial response was that he also had a vision of government … After the meeting, Hariri came out in a positive atmosphere and said that ” Aoun promised me that he would study the training and that we will come back and meet “… And after approximately two hours, the Presidency of the Republic issued an official statement. In it, it was noted that President Aoun presented to the President-designate an integrated proposal that includes a distribution of portfolios based on clear principles, and the President of the Republic and the President-designate agreed to study the proposals presented and follow up on consultations to address the differences between these proposals.
This was an indication that there were two propositions and enough differences to conclude that the “environment is negative” and the problem has not been resolved … as well as it was enough to conclude that Hariri’s entry to the meeting with Aoun in hand and the formation of the government and its departure from the Baabda Palace without issuing authorship decrees means that the dispute is entrenched … This has never happened before, and it is customary for the president-designate to bring a final, complete poster with him to the Baabda Palace Except for the training agreed in advance. Regarding what happened, in the facts and interactions, we present these details and points:
1- The formation presented by Hariri of 18 ministers divided equally between Muslims and Christians, was the following:
٭ In terms of political distribution, there are three equal blocks: 6 ministers for the president of the republic + the Free Patriotic Movement – 6 ministers for the prime minister + Future, Miqati and Jumblatt – 6 ministers for the Shiite couple + “apostate” and nationalist.
٭ In terms of sectarian distribution: 4 ministries for Sunnis, especially health and communications – 4 ministries for Shiites, the most prominent of which is finance and employment – one ministry for Druze, which is the Ministry of Relations Foreign (the Druze minister also receives the agriculture portfolio) 4 ministries for the Maronites, in particular those of defense, justice and energy, among which are those of Defense, Justice and Education – 3 ministries for Catholics among the most prominent – And industry.
Among the well-known names of the Hariri collection: Nicola Haber for the interior, Joe Al Saddi for Energy, Youssef Khalil for Finance and Lynn Tahini for Culture.
2- President Aoun rejects this formation for three reasons: The first reason is of principle and is related to the role of the President of the Republic in the formation of the government “formed by the President appointed in agreement with the President of the Republic.” Consequently, Aoun considers that he is the co-author and not the recipient of a government “formed by the designated president, distributing his portfolios and appointing his ministers, so his role is not limited to accepting or rejecting the formation presented by the designated president. The other reason is political, and has to do with the political and sectarian equation, the equation of sizes and balances in government. President Aoun refused on the one hand to appoint Christian ministers, especially the ministers of interior and energy, and on the other hand he wants him and his Christian team (the current one and the Tashnag) to have 7 ministers, so that it constitutes for him a guarantor and established force within the cabinet independently of its allies, while giving it a composition. Hariri has 6 ministers, and the other three are divided between the “Marada”, the nationalist and the future. Hariri avoids the number 7 because it represents the obstructive third party in the government of 18 ministers, and will not be in the hands of any political or sectarian group.
3- Prime Minister Saad Hariri, through this training, scored political points in his favor, the first of which was that he threw the government ball into the President of the Republic’s court and did what he had to do and he removed the responsibility, in addition to showing confidence in himself and in line with the promises he made to form a government of specialists in good conduct. Under the umbrella of the French initiative and according to the criteria established by the French paper roadmap.
But when Hariri throws a de facto government to the table in Baabda, he risks his fragile relationship with President Aoun and the new government, because when he takes responsibility from him, he throws it on Aoun’s shoulders and holds him accountable for the obstruction and delay in the birth of the government, and consequently, the responsibility for the consequent interruption of international support, the intensification of the financial crisis and an explosion. Social situation.
In practice, we are faced with “this reality”: a complete government on Hariri’s side and a “government project” on Aoun’s side … The solution is still theoretically possible if there is an understanding to reconcile the two “cards” and Hariri agrees to make amendments to its composition. It’s proven that Aoun won’t accept this formation as it is … Will Hariri agree to reconsider ?!
4- The “arduous and complicated” government negotiations between Aoun and Hariri are accompanied by a political separation of forces, the most prominent of which is the distribution of the Shiite duo between the two parties. President Berri is a strong supporter of Hariri and eases his affairs to the extent that he responded with him by presenting a list of names to choose from among them the names of the two ministers, “Amal” (this is the first time that Berri violated a principle that he followed when naming him and at the last moment), and to the extent that he contributed to overcome the obstacle of Jumblatt. And to prevent the gap between him and Hariri from widening (Berri convinced Jumblatt to accept “foreign affairs” and gave him the option of agriculture rather than tourism).
Hezbollah has a different position and is committed to the President of the Republic, and the party does not agree to give a list of names to Hariri for him to choose, and will not do the same, but will give Hariri two specific names for him to choose. take over the labor and labor ministries (Berri took money and tourism), and the party does not hand over the names of its ministers to Hariri before making sure. That Aoun is satisfied and accepted, and that an agreement was reached with Hariri regarding the government. Consequently, Hezbollah does not agree with the name of the two Shiite ministers proposed by Hariri, even if they are not provoking it, and the problem for him is that he does not want to give Hariri the opportunity to point to Aoun or that the president of the republic show that he is the only obstructive who did not give the names of his ministers.
5- The creation process has now stopped at this point, and the accusations resulting from Hariri’s formation and Aoun’s reaction have advanced. Prime Minister Hariri is now accused of remaining evasive and procrastinated, and is still within the scope of the game of tossing the ball and interested in taking responsibility for it and polishing his image by presenting a fait accompli government that is on the government record. to a dead end. President Aoun is accused of transgressing the constitution when he delivers a proposal to Government Hariri in exchange, and that it undermines the characteristics of the mission government and replaces it with a government cloned from previous governments, even with cosmetic amendments. This is the second time in days that Aoun faces charges for violating the constitution and the powers of the prime minister, such as the one he faced after the meeting of the Supreme Defense Council a few days ago and the issuance of decisions that are of Powers of the Council of Ministers
6 – The emerging danger in the government file is that the authorship crisis is not limited to a battle of fencing and quotas, suitcases and names, but that the government battle is developed in the light of a great political tension resulting from the opening of judicial files and the process of settling political accounts, and in the face of growing financial and social pressures. The failure in the formation of the government would have led first to the overthrow of what was left of the French initiative, and to a change in the program of President Macron’s visit to Lebanon, which would remain but would be more touristy (check the French forces working in the framework of “UNIFIL”) rather than political (confined to a formal meeting with Aoun at the Baabda palace), failure to form the government would increase the severity of the “political battering rams” and accelerate the pace of economic and social collapse. . Given the vacuum of government, all these pressures will be directed towards the presidency of the republic … and with this the possibilities of going from a government crisis to a “government crisis” will increase.
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