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Patricia Jallad wrote in Call of the Fatherland:
The Lebanese are on a date tomorrow, with the issuance of the second price for the fuel pricing schedule issued by the Ministry of Energy and Water after issuing a price on Monday. If the Minister of Finance, Ghazi Wazni, does not reduce the subsidy by 5%, the price of the plate will not change or may decrease slightly. If the subsidy is reduced from 90% to 85%, the price of gasoline will increase by 8,000 pounds to 48,000 pounds.
Gasoline and diesel are on the way to eliminating subsidies. Everyone agrees that the time has come to stop the drain on the Lebanon’s Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves and to end the smuggling of subsidized goods for the benefit of rich and poor alike. And when this happens, the poor, whose percentage exceeds 55%, only have to drink the most bitter cup and go hungry, in the total absence of the state, and adapt to the phenomenon of the price of a plate of gasoline that reaches 165 thousands of pounds or more depending on the change in the price of a barrel of oil globally and the dollar exchange rate locally.
The Lebanese Central Bank’s gasoline and diesel subsidy is known to amount to 90%, which includes the cost of transported goods, shipping and insurance … a cost paid from the “central” reserve, and for so much out of the pockets of the Lebanese.
The remaining 10% is provided on the black market. From here on, importers and distributors of hydrocarbons raised their voices, demanding an increase in the price of gasoline and the tariff to the owners of the stations, which amounts to 1,900 pounds, to cover their operating expenses while they incur the non-cost. supported 10% according to the black market. price in exchange for selling the fuel in local currency.
After several meetings with the Minister of Energy and Water, Raymond Ghajar, an agreement was reached between the minister and the Directorate of Petroleum to set two prices per week instead of one. This is mainly to be able to keep up with the constant fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, which reached 15 thousand pounds to one dollar, and secondly, to keep up with the “silver”, which depends on the price. international one dollar. barrel of oil recorded 4 weeks ago.
Auror Feghali, director general of Petroleum at the Ministry of Energy and Water, told Nidaa al-Watan that “issuing two fuel prices does not mean that the price will increase periodically in preparation for the removal of all subsidies.” The reason for the issuance of two quotes is due to the fact that it was possible to keep up with the variation of the dollar exchange rate, which registered a continuous daily increase for days, reaching 15 thousand pounds. If the exchange rate goes up, fuel prices go up with it, and if it goes down, it goes down with it only by 10%.
He explained: “It was agreed with Rome to issue a price on Monday and another on Thursday, but as the deadline is very close, we decided to modify it this week to make it Monday and Friday, considering that gasoline consumption increases at the weekend.” by approximately 50%. “As for the approved price for the dollar exchange rate, to be based on the determination of the price of the gasoline plate, he said that” the average price is calculated for the four days prior to the date of issuance of the pricing schedule. . “Regarding the determination of the TVA value, he confirmed that it is relative and not fixed, since it varies according to the price of the specified plate. As for the reward for the owners of the stations, it is the responsibility of the Ministry of Public Works and Transportation, which determines it more or less according to the cost of transporting fuel in tanks.
So, two elements are involved in determining the price of the gasoline plate: the dollar exchange rate on the black market of only 10%, and the international price of oil, which is calculated in Lebanon on the basis of “platts”, that is, the price. registered per barrel of oil internationally, in the four weeks prior to the date of issuance of the quote by the Ministry of Energy.
The opinion of the station owners
But would issuing the two quotes comfort the station owners so that they could keep up with exchange rate fluctuations and cure their anger? A member of the Gas Station Owners Union in Lebanon, George Braks, explained to Nidaa al-Watan that “the two prices of the fuel pricing program benefit the citizen only” psychologically “, thus stopping the price increase of the newspaper in two stages instead of one payment. “
He said: “The owners of the stations have presented studies to the Ministry of Energy and the General Directorate of Petroleum on the operational cost, which has collapsed, but no one responds to the adjustment of the royalty.”
Regarding the lifting of fuel subsidies, he said, “it is not permissible at present due to its negative repercussions on the high exchange rate of the dollar, since the demand in the black market for foreign currency will increase to about 8 or 9 million dollars. “. per day only instead of the current 4 or 5 million, which will increase. “The dollar exchange rate on the black market reaches 25 thousand pounds and up to 30 thousand. And if the subsidies for medicines and gasoline are eliminated equally , the demand per dollar will increase to about 14 or 15 million dollars a day, which will cause the loss of gasoline from the stations even if the price of the plate is 300 thousand lire, due to the inability of importers and station owners to get dollars to buy this stuff.
Regarding the role that the electronic platform announced by the Banque du Liban could play to curb the rise in the exchange rate, since its price would be set at around 10,000 pounds per dollar, provided that the Banque du Liban intervened to control the market , Brax asked: “Where will the Banque du Liban come from in dollars? From the black market? Where the amount is minimal,” he replies. He considered that there is no other solution than to form a government that gains the trust of the international community, to carry out reforms and a criminal investigation …
Therefore, the final and total withdrawal of the raw material is currently not possible despite attempts to release it little by little, highlighting that the rationalization stage began without introductions. Overnight, the Ministry of Economy reduced the subsidies for many food products and kept the basic ones and for specific items such as meat, beef and milk … Today, the Ministry of Finance can discount 5% of the subsidy in the gasoline plate. .until the platform begins to stimulate transparency in the exchange rate The dollar in the foreign exchange markets, and the start of the promised financing card, which is still shy to talk about it and generalities. All this, if it happens, will be useless without a political consensus on the formation of an effective government.
In the event that fuel subsidies are eliminated by 100%, the price of gasoline can be as follows:
– If the exchange rate of a dollar in Al Sawda ‘is 14 thousand pounds, then the price of a gasoline can be 165 thousand pounds.
– If the dollar registers 20 thousand pounds on the black market, the price of the plate will reach about 240 thousand pounds.
The dollar exchange rate can reach 30 thousand and gasoline 300 thousand pounds … if the subsidy is raised by 100% to raw materials and food.
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