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“Asharq Al-Awsat” monitored ambiguous expectations among black market traders, which pushed the price of the dollar to the threshold of 7,700 pounds in limited and tense transactions before the noon speech, under pressure from the flow of information on a situation on the rise. Then, the situation was completely reversed and the price rolled in less than two hours to a level of approximately 7,200 Syrian pounds, then oscillates between 7,300 and 7,400 pounds, after it was confirmed that the presidential message did not contain signs that could hinder the path of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s mandate to form the government.
The Beirut Stock Exchange was left out of the scope of interaction with the new developments, because the time of the speech coincided with the end of the working day at noon, and consequently it maintained the narrow trading pattern and focused on the shares of Solidere (Beirut Central Real Estate), where only about 13 transactions were carried out, with a total of amounts not exceeding $ 110 thousand For around 26.5 thousand shares, including an operation that included 20 thousand shares for a bank. Note that the combined capital value of the shares is approximately $ 6.5 billion.
At the same time, it was noted that the unprecedented low in the prices of some segments of international debt securities traded in the international financial markets did not constitute an incentive to purchase or speculate in order to improve prices in the event that the government proceeds advanced. and the prior commitment of the President in charge of expediting the frozen negotiations with the management of the International Monetary Fund and the activation of promises. The French initiative to hold a new conference and mobilize international support to provide financial and assistance aid.
Bankers linked to external investors affirmed that the conviction of “uncertainty” still dominates the decisions of those interested in the foreign securities markets of the Lebanese government, which have lost all their vitality after the current interim government suspended the payment of assets and interest for all segments of the international bond portfolio whose value exceeds more than $ 32 billion. This, in turn, led to serious asset losses, which reached the bond price limits of between 15 and 16 cents on the dollar.
And the negative anticipations were added to the fact that the government did not make enough efforts to communicate, during the following months, to stop the payment, with the local bondholders who owned about $ 11 billion of the portfolio, nor with outsiders who store about $ 15 billion in bonds. Note that the Banque du Liban also has around $ 5 billion worth of Eurobonds, and it continues to count them at the issue price as part of its hard currency reserves.
It is clear that transactions in the financial markets, according to the bankers, will remain governed until further notice by the conditions for the actual progress of the treatments, after Lebanon lost most of its confidence in the possibility of an internal consensus on a Integrated recovery plan that guarantees the recovery of its financial and monetary sectors from the continuous collapses that hit most of the economic pillars. It caused the loss of more than 300,000 jobs in the private sector and disrupted the balance of the social fabric, expanding the poverty belt to include around 60 percent of residents.
According to this assessment, experts agree on the importance of tracking internal roads and international climates in the next phase. They give specific weight to the course of the negotiations on the demarcation of the borders with Israel and the speed of their advance, since it is the most prominent and strong indicator on which the future and comprehensive perspectives will be based to begin to explore the expected wealth. of oil and gas in the south of the country, without neglecting the effect of the flow of internal developments on the “brake” of deterioration and the possibility of positive market developments. Effective, in the next few days, in case serious indicators appear that lead to facilitate the formation of the post-mandate government.
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