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“News from Kuwait”:
Since the message that President Michel Aoun sent yesterday to the Lebanese was announced, attention has shifted to the Baabda Palace and political anticipation has prevailed, amid astonishment and questions.
The surprise is due to the sudden timing not related to any occasion, especially since a week separates the “calendar date” of a presidential message, President Aoun used to send it in late October on the anniversary of his election. As for the questions, they focused on the motive and motive for this “message” and the stakeholder and what comes next. .
It is natural that the appearance of President Aoun is directly related to the government file and the parliamentary consultations that will take place today.
As expected, a second postponement of these consultations was neither announced nor justified, after the room for maneuver in this area was greatly reduced, in the face of international pressure that a government demands as soon as possible, and in the face of the internal pressure derived. from accelerating collapse and the need for government, and in light of trends. This led to the separation between the commissioning and authorship processes and to deactivating or undermining the Government’s Road Charter at least during the commissioning stage.
President Aoun would not have arrived with this “message-position” and with this high political and constitutional “ceiling” if he had not felt an ongoing process to surround and besiege the Presidency of the Republic, paralyze its capacities and deal with it from the beginning. background that “the pact is practically finished”.
This process began a year ago, when Al-Ahed was the main target of the October 17 uprising, which affected the entire political class in its fragments, but was singled out for the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, the man of the Alliance and its main symbol.
Later, with the economic collapse and the explosion of the port of Beirut, the rate of blame and consequences on the president of the Republic, allied to Hezbollah, accelerated, reaching the point of calling for his resignation in parallel with the demands to overthrow the government. and early parliamentary elections, and this month the issue of the powers and role of the president of the republic was raised widely on the sidelines. The start of negotiations to demarcate the borders between Lebanon and Israel, the declaration of a “framework agreement” by Ain al-Tineh, and the formation of the Lebanese negotiating delegation without coordination with the Shiite duo and without the knowledge of the prime minister.
However, things take a different turn with the “government crisis” dossier that began with the apology of Prime Minister-designate Mustafa Adeeb and its mission was not completed. It was rooted in the delay in calling consultations for new assignments, then determining them and postponing them for a week, and the matter revealed a direct confrontation between Aoun and President Saad Hariri. And about a change in the nature of the problem and the complex that went with Mustafa Adeeb with the “Amal-Hezbollah Movement” duo and converted with Saad Hariri with the “Aoun-Basil” duo.
What happened was that Hariri resolved his matter and decided to return to prime minister under the roof of the French initiative, and decided to assign him before the consultations without the need to wait for his results and refer to them, and without the need of the president of the Republic and a prior understanding with him, considering that the understanding with the Shiite bilateral is enough to cross the allocation threshold. He has no problem in “giving” the Ministry of Finance and the right to appoint ministers, and that the votes of the Christian deputies distributed among the Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt and Franjieh blocks are sufficient to ensure a minimum level of “Christian coverage.” “, bearing in mind that the” letter “is presented at the drafting stage and is not considered at the commissioning stage.
The way Hariri acted in the last two weeks in terms of restricting his contacts and understandings to the three parties Berri, Jumblatt and Franjieh, avoiding a previous understanding with the President of the Republic and denying any contact with Basil, caused a “leap political “for President Aoun, who seemed wary of establishing a quadripartite alliance that would start out of the government’s battle for battle. Presidency of the Republic and pave the way.
The new government, in principle, is the government of the last epoch (if it succeeds it will be extended until the end of the legislature, and if it fails and falls the pact with it will fall), it is the government that will prepare the internal conditions and equations for parliamentary and presidential elections, and it is the government that will take over the government and rule the country should a presidential vacuum arise. Like the Tammam Salam government at the end of President Michel Suleiman’s term.
It seems that President Aoun first suspected Hariri’s desire and enthusiasm to become prime minister again, having repeatedly stressed that he would not return and would not be prime minister again during his tenure, and secondly he suspected the new alliance of the quartet and their plan to besiege and isolate Basil, in a way that would weaken and marginalize the Christian component of the government. Which has been mainly restricted to Gebran Bassil and Suleiman Franjieh in second place.
Thus, President Aoun is acting from the background that he is waging his last decisive political battle, and that whoever wins the battle for the current government wins the battle for the presidency, and whoever loses now loses later.
But Aoun also believes that he has not yet reached the finish line, and there is still a long time and a political distance that separates him from the end of his term after two years … Aoun, who was elected president in recent days President Barack Obama and in light of an American-Iranian intersection in the region, he is grudgingly passing a mandate. Hariri takes the battle with him to the arena of authorship, and is waiting as Hezbollah, who strongly supports him in this battle, who will be the new American president.
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