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Official Israeli political circles remain silent on the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, despite accusations from Tehran and the threat of revenge.
This comes amid a hidden debate between the political and security levels over the viability of the assassination attributed to Tel Aviv, at a time when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu renewed the use of the Iranian nuclear scarecrow in the face of the change in US administration in the White House.
In isolation from Iranian threats, the Israeli army has been on alert for months, which has become a regular scenario, and Hezbollah is expected to retaliate for the death of one of its members in a raid attributed to Israel months ago. at sites in Damascus.
Preparation and estimates
The state of alertness of the occupying army in the Syrian Golan continues in light of escalating Iranian threats, as explosive devices were discovered a few days ago at the limits of the ceasefire line, followed by Israeli incursions into Damascus, and the Israeli army was also preparing on the front lines of the Gaza Strip, which occasionally witnessed rocket fire. In southern Israel, it encountered raids and artillery shelling in the Gaza Strip.
In addition to security assessments and the repercussions of the assassination of Iranian academic Fakhrizadeh in Israel and the region, Israeli political and military analysts estimate the strategic viability of the assassination and the profit-and-loss equation for Tel Aviv.
The analyzes arise amid a discrepancy between the political and military position, reflecting the state of official Israeli confusion over the Iranian nuclear dossier with the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States, despite the consensus that Fakhri’s assassination Zadeh serves Netanyahu’s interests by staying at the forefront of the political scene in the event of new elections.
Iran promised a severe response after the assassination of Fakhrizadeh (Anatolia)Silence and prompts
Regarding the security implications and controversy on the Israeli scene regarding the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, and the official silence accompanying Netanyahu’s security establishment and government, Ayal Aleimah, a military analyst on the official Israeli channel , believes that official Israel remains completely silent on the assassination, despite what was published by The news and the nomination indications indicate that Tel Aviv, alone or with the coordination, cooperation and participation of the United States, is behind the operation .
In his address to Al-Jazeera Net, the military analyst explained that Israel is estimated to be the party that benefits the most from the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist, as well as the administration of outgoing President Donald Trump, which may have been aware of the assassination. as believed by belief and assumption, despite official Israeli silence. .
On the security implications of preparing the occupation army for the possibility of Israel being hit by an Iranian attack, the military analyst suggests that the Israeli army has been prepared and alert for a long time, so the matter has been returned as usual, either on the northern border with Lebanon, in front of the Gaza Strip or in the Golan along the Golan line. Stop the fire.
IDF Chief of Staff Avivi Kochavi inspects the northern front after the assassination of Fakhri Zadeh (Al-Jazeera)Preparation and climbing
To confirm the readiness of the Israeli army for any escalation scenario, the military analyst recalled the field trip that Army Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi made to the northern border, 48 hours after the assassination of the Iranian scientist, in a message to Tehran that the Israeli army continues its military activities and operations and monitors Iranian movements and Iranian positioning. In Syria.
The military analyst suggested that the Israeli army, prior to Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, continued its operations and activities on the Golan front on a regular basis. Rather, it made assessments and weighed all the possibilities, anticipating all scenarios, and came to the conclusion that Iran would not immediately and directly respond to any operation attributed to Israel. It will not undertake any military action that may lead to a general confrontation and therefore refrained from raising the readiness of the army to the highest level, despite warnings from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs to all its citizens around the world. world about the consequences of Iranian operations.
Despite these estimates, the Israeli military analyst claims that Tel Aviv monitors, monitors and monitors where Tehran is headed with the file of the assassination of the nuclear scientist, and conducts an intelligence analysis of Iranian statements and positions, emphasizing that the belief Israeli official confirms that Iran will respond to the assassination, but the question remains, which is it confuses Israel, is it the location, timing and nature of the response?
The timing of Fakhrizadeh’s assassination is linked to the US elections and Biden’s victory (Getty Images)Motives and opportunity
For his part, Israeli political analyst Akiva Eldar believes that the timing of the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist is linked to the Fund’s decision in the US elections and Biden’s victory, as well as the possibility that Israel will head for snap elections. in 2021, and therefore it is no coincidence that the US president-elect, as well as the countries of the European Union, expressed their resentment that The assassination occurs during the transition phase and the end of Trump’s term, who tries to seek a victory box in the Middle East, and complicates the regional files on fire before leaving the White House.
In his address to Al-Jazeera Net, the political analyst explained that Trump, who remained silent and was content to republish a tweet from Israeli military analyst Yossi Melman, praising the murder of Fakhri Zah, followed Netanyahu’s approach, who expects new elections next year, and declined to comment on the Iranian accusations against Israel. And his involvement in the murder, and he was content to tweet hours after the murder, saying: “This week I have done a lot of work and I cannot speak in detail about all of them.”
He noted that Israel often refrains from talking about or addressing the operations and killings carried out in Syria and the region, and even around the world, and is blamed on Mossad. And that Israel will continue the same assassination approach, and Israeli estimates indicate that Tehran, facing difficult economic conditions and the Crown crisis, will distance itself from leading an attack that could lead to a military confrontation with Tel Aviv, especially as wants to give Biden a chance to settle the nuclear deal.
Netanyahu does not want to wait for Biden to take office (Reuters)Netanyahu, Biden
The Israeli political analyst suggested that the prime minister does not want to wait for Biden to take the reins of power in the White House, and Netanyahu, who faces files on corruption charges and is heading for new elections next year, has re-employed the Iranian scarecrow to woo the Israeli public and promote that he is the savior of Iranian nuclear energy and the godfather of normalization with countries. Arabica.
In light of the shuffling of cards from Trump and Netanyahu, it is not unlikely, as the political analyst puts it, that “the Biden administration is pushing to force Israel to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and employing regional peace and the normalization to force Tel Aviv to accept that, and the leadership to denuclearize the Middle East. ” It is the proposal that Tehran has shown its willingness to accept the mandate of former President Barack Obama, who backed down and eventually succumbed to Israeli pressure, and the question remains whether Biden is willing to take on Netanyahu to achieve it.
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