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Some observers were quick to point out that this agreement shows not only China’s ambition, but also the failure of the Trump administration’s so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which has pushed Iran to turn to China, and others have indicated that It will give Tehran a firm stance when negotiating with the administration of President-elect Joe Biden.
But Foreign Policy magazine believes they are exaggerating China’s willingness and ability to help Iran by defying the United States. He noted that although China has been Iran’s largest trading partner since 2009, it is still a secondary partner of China. Even in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are ahead of Iran when it comes to trade with China.
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, Sino-Iranian trade peaked in 2014 at $ 51.85 billion, equivalent to 1.2 percent of Beijing’s total foreign trade volume, and then declined since then. In the same year, China’s trade with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reached $ 69.15 billion and $ 54.8 billion, respectively.
In contrast, the volume of Sino-US trade in that year reached $ 555 billion, equivalent to 12.9 percent of China’s total foreign trade. Therefore, the magazine believes that Beijing will not sacrifice all this to get closer to Tehran.
The magazine emphasized that Tehran is for China, only one of the relationships that Beijing needs to manage in the region.
The idea of a comprehensive Sino-Iranian deal was proposed in early 2016 by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his official visit to Iran. Immediately afterwards, Chinese companies began arriving in Tehran, but were greeted with a lukewarm welcome from Iranians, who prefer everything Western, according to the newspaper.
Fear of sanctions
After the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, many Chinese companies also suspended their projects or left Iran just as their Western counterparts did, due to the blocking of payment channels and increased risks. when investing in the Iranian market.
Then, after announcing the deal, an Iranian businessman who was dealing with China sarcastically questioned media reports and indicated in the Iranian press that Chinese banks refuse to do business with Iran and close bank accounts of Iranian students and Iranian companies. in China due to the pressure of US sanctions, and said: “And how? Will participate in a deal to save Iran from US sanctions.”
As for the military association included in the agreement, which provides for Beijing to establish a military base on the Iranian island of Kish, the American magazine has questioned it, due to the popular Iranian rejection of any presence on its soil, in addition to the desire of China for not bringing Iran too close in its security field. Since 2008, Iran has wanted to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-led Eurasian economy and security alliance.
Despite apparent recent support from Russia, China has not allowed Iran to become a full member of the organization. Beijing is likely to continue to prevent Iranian membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the future, in order to preserve its relations with the Middle Eastern countries and not align itself with any party in this dispute, which will affect its interests.
Iranian maneuver
The magazine confirmed that this deal is primarily an Iranian maneuver at the expense of China, and that it is an “Iranian public relations tactic”, and that it is trying to calm the national public opinion of discontent due to the economic situation that China supports. Iran, and show that America’s maximum pressure campaign has failed.
He added that Beijing knows that if it chooses to cooperate closely with Iran, any future escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran (which could easily happen) would further strain the already delicate relations between Beijing and Washington. So if the United States plays its cards carefully, China is unlikely to side with Iran.
He explained that it will be the ultimate goal of China’s foreign policy in the coming years is to repair its relations with the United States, so any possible agreement with Iran will only be subject to this greater need.
