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When the Russian delegation visited Lebanon some time ago, they were informed that the Lebanese ambassador to Syria would be sent to represent Lebanon at the conference. However, after the sanctions against Gebran Bassil, the decision was made to raise the level of representation at the conference, as a sign of raising the level of confrontation with the United States of America. The step also includes a greater rapprochement with Russia, and one of the responses to the US decision to punish Bassil (and the Pact), and a return to the tone of heading east, especially as taking the Aouni Bassili stance. against the Syrian regime was one of the demands of the United States that Basil did not comply with.
Ignore the “Caesar Law”
This step will have multiple dimensions and repercussions, and it will not be seen with the approval of the United States, although it is not yet known if the conference will be successful and who are the parties that will participate in it. So far, it is certain that Lebanon will participate with the Minister of Social Affairs in the interim government, Ramzi Musharafieh. There will also be a technical video with the participation of Chancellor Charbel Wahba. This may be Wahebe’s first foreign appearance since taking office.
In such stations, Aoun resorts to a decision in which he expresses an emotional reaction and makes a decision, under an interim government, to raise the level of the political relationship between Lebanon and Syria, ignoring any repercussions of the Caesar Law and its consequences. This leads to a conclusion, according to Aoun, which is: “After Gibran, let the flood come.” All the path previously traveled by the time was due to threats to impose sanctions on Bassil, so the man froze any visit to Syria and stopped any attempt to normalize relations. This path changed after Bassil’s name was placed on the sanctions list.
The Russian option?
Here, we must return to the lighting of many Lebanese-Russian stations, which have enraged the Americans, from the great anger that Russian companies won tenders to explore for gas at sea, and the victory of Rosneft in the rehabilitation of oil refineries and tanks in Tripoli, and the visit of Aoun Russia, which he chose as a visit to announce his intention to build a Levantine alliance, and be the prelude to the presidential battle of Gebran Bassil. Fear of the Americans pushed to reduce this momentum, which seems to be renewed at this stage.
The conference and Lebanon’s participation in it will not be limited solely to the refugee file. And Bassil, who confirmed in his press conference that the sanctions imposed by politics will be removed by politics, knows that the way to escape this cordon will be by re-extending the lines of communication with many powers, the first of which is with the ‘Axis Powers’, and the second is to offer what can be offered to the Americans, to be able to remove their name from the list. Sanctions Here it is betting on the influence of Russia, which is playing a pioneering role in improving Syrian-Israeli relations and opening the door to negotiations between them.
The information reveals that Moscow is communicating between the two parties to refloat the system. Especially since the situation of Bashar al-Assad is very similar to that of Basil, who revealed that he had received many temptations in parallel to be under pressure to distance himself from Hezbollah and Iran, in exchange for improving his political position.
This dossier will not be separated from two main points related to the American conditions demanded of Lebanon, the most important of which is the demarcation of the borders with Israel, the demarcation of the borders with Syria, and the control of the crossings and their movement. … and the most important thing is to take down the Shebaa Farms file. Here, Moscow will play a prominent role in this file between Lebanon and Syria, which will complement the demarcation negotiations, and will surround the weapons of Hezbollah, which will be returned without need or excuse, with the absence of the role of “resistance to liberate the land” . This definitely takes a long way, and you will have many obstacles and mixed indicators ahead.
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