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The most dangerous thing, from the Gulf point of view, since Aktay’s attack on the Emirates and holding it responsible for the tensions in the region, is its presentation of a vision that assumes that Cairo’s entry into an alliance with Ankara will open the doors to the entire East, whether with Russia, Iran or other parties, which means a total change in politics. The Egyptian strategy seems impossible, even gradually, from the point of view of the Egyptian state, according to informed sources. Thus, Turkey’s hypothesis seems difficult to implement, which is what Aktay realized through the official Egyptian reaction, which came through Chancellor Sameh Shoukry, saying that his country’s position is linked to what is doing Turkey in Libya, Syria and Iraq, which means overcoming the Turkish violations against the Egyptian regime, with Stop demanding the return of Egyptians fleeing to Istanbul for political reasons.
Cairo prefers to keep a winning card to avoid the possibility of a Gulf reconciliation without it
It is true that there has been coordination between the Egyptian and Turkish intelligence services indirectly through intermediaries for months, and then there was direct coordination that may not have occurred for years with this degree of intensity, especially in recent weeks. , but it was limited to specific levels. However, sources confirm that this communication has led to many understandings, especially with regard to stopping Egyptian media criticism of Turkey, with Turkish promises “not yet implemented” to take similar measures. These understandings, which are still in their infancy, clearly worried the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, because they arrived without coordination between them and Egypt, leading the latter to convey a “message of reassurance” that they did not there would be unilateral steps from Cairo to Ankara, and not especially with regard to the “unified Arab position against it on the Qatar question.”
Consequently, it appears that Egypt is using its understandings with Turkey as a pressure tool for profit in the negotiations to resolve the Gulf crisis, which are being carried out with the mediation of the United States, implying that they exclude any possibility of reconciliation. without Cairo. Despite the weakness of these possibilities, the Egyptians prefer to keep a winning card that they can use in the negotiations, which appeared in recent days during the media truce between Qatar and its neighbors, which Egypt did not comply with. At this time, Sisi’s contacts with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed have not been cut over the past period, but the Egyptian opposition to Erdogan and his regime has withdrawn. While the UAE wants to financially support the Turkish opposition, Sisi prefers to pursue other methods, be it with Erdogan or anyone else, due to many considerations.
However, the Egyptian-Emirati coordination related to Libya remains unchanged so far, especially in terms of military support to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s forces. As for Turkey, it seems that it has come to understand the Egyptian position in Libya, as war is no longer an option even though the political dispute and escalation continue, and what is happening today is only part of a panorama whose characteristics they will soon be clarified according to circles close to decision makers.
