Saad Hariri: Hit or understanding?

Dar al-Dulab and Saad Hariri returned, tasked with establishing the government. When he resigned at the end of October 2019, his movement seemed to escape responsibility (even if he was wearing revolutionary clothes). When he returned, he suggested that he was ready to take responsibility. What has changed for him this year? Could someone claiming to have the breakdown key turn the clock back? When he resigned, the price of the dollar was 1,780 pounds, and when he came back, people celebrated because the dollar had fallen to 7,000 pounds. If he is now the savior, then it means that he was when he resigned, and it was the day he refused to return, but preferred to contribute to deepening the collapse, after being one of its founders.

When he resigned a year ago, he had the opportunity to return, armed with the reform paper approved by the Cabinet prior to his resignation. He did not accept the assignment at the time, under the pretext that he did not have the support of the two main Christian parties, but he came back and accepted today. It seems clear, then, that the decision was made to leave the ship in the face of sinking. Today, when it almost sinks, it is destined to float. Following the resignation, the decision or “advice” was said to have come from Jared Kushner, son-in-law and adviser to US President Donald Trump. Is the return today protected by another “advice” related to the demarcation negotiations and an atmosphere of regional calm, from Yemen to Baghdad, passing through Syria and Lebanon? Anyone who knows Hariri knows that his insistence on obtaining the assignment is not the product of his creation. Without an order, you cannot take any risks. The directive cannot be just French, but more than an expression of concern about the French initiative.

It is noteworthy that despite the great political division, it managed to obtain 65 votes, which represents practically half the number of deputies now plus five. The National Bloc was a surprise, as were MPs Jihad Al-Samad and Adnan Trabelsi. Support Hariri, like the deputy Jean Talusian, in contravention of the position of the bloc of the Lebanese Forces. The Tashnak bloc was not affected by all the pressure to dissuade it from its decision, so it insisted on continuing with the Hariri name. President Nabih Berri played an important role in persuading the “national” and Tashnak blocs to appoint Hariri, despite the attempt of the Syrian ambassador, Ali Abdel Karim Ali, to convince them otherwise. The irony is that what was previously announced by Vice President Elie Ferzli has been achieved. Hariri managed to obtain 22 Christian votes totally and completely. This is approximately 40 percent of the number of Christian representatives who participated in the consultations.
As a result, Hariri won the nomination of 65 deputies, while 54 members did not name anyone. At least half of them do not oppose Hariri’s return to Serail, the most prominent of which is Hezbollah. And after President Michel Aoun informed Hariri of the results of the consultations, in the presence of Berri, he left, refusing to continue with pessimism in the face of the great disagreement between Hariri and Deputy Gebran Bassil. He said: “The optimistic atmosphere is between the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun and President Saad Hariri.” He added: “There will be a rapprochement between the Future Movement and the Free Patriot.” As for Hariri, he came out with a short statement outlining the writing stage. And he spoke of “forming a government of nonpartisan specialists, whose mission is to implement the economic, financial and administrative reforms contained in the French initiative document, in which the main blocks of Parliament pledged to support the government to implement them.” He also expressed his determination to “work to stop the collapse that threatens our economy, society and security, and to rebuild what was destroyed by the terrible explosion at the port of Beirut”, stating that he would focus on “forming a quick government, because time is running out. ends, and the opportunity for our beloved country is the only and last. “
But will it be possible to quickly form a government? The contract included in the job confirms that writing will not be easy. There are major obstacles in front of him, the first of which is how to deal with the aid situation at that stage, and the second is how to reach an agreement on the government’s program.
Bassil thought that “this mandate is tainted by the weakness and lack of representation represented by the lack of numbers and the absence of support from the main Christian components, and whoever tries to ignore it tries to return us to Syrian tutelage, and this will not happen. “.
What Basil said from Baabda outlines a roadmap for the composition stage: “The current is with a reforming government of specialists with its president and ministers, and the atmosphere of the French initiative as well. Therefore, appoint a politician with distinction he led the movement not to name anyone. ” In short, he said that the current that bent in front of the start-up storm will remain on the observatory stage. It is a continuation of the office of the President of the Republic, who recalled, in his press conference the day before yesterday, that the authorship passes through Baabda, and if the consultations are binding, then his signature is binding for those who wish to form a government.
Author inquiries started yesterday for Hariri. Visits to former heads of government were replaced by phone calls, provided that Parliament opened today for the designated president to consult with parliamentary blocs, in preparation for the start of actual communication to form the government. Things are still blurry here. Hariri can choose between two. Or he seeks to implement the coup that Mustafa Adeeb did not achieve, then he goes to the confrontation from the soft side of the March 8 team, that is, the Free Patriotic Movement, and his successor the President of the Republic, and refuses to negotiate with They either coordinate the names and the program with them, or go with full understanding with the representative blocs represented in Parliament, in preparation for their government to gain confidence, and begin working to get out of the collapse, as announced.

Basil Salam in the assignment and the lookout in the composition.

If the first route is adopted, it cannot be ruled out that his fate will be the same as that of Mustafa Adib, whose facts have shown that his proposal for a government that elects its members by itself is not viable, and there will be two obstacles in front of him that will guarantee their removal. Most of the names of Christians in it, and the second is the confidence of Parliament, which the Hariri government will not be able to obtain, if the majority does not participate in it as it sees fit.
However, if Hariri opts for the confrontation option, he will not be helpless. It is based on a set of factors that he considers to be of interest: a commitment to French or American pressure on Aoun to walk with the assortment he offers, his “ability” to reduce the dollar exchange rate, the adherence of all to the French initiative, the American sanctions and the idea that was echoed in the Baabda Palace: I last chance.

Hariri between two governments: the dollar from 1700 to 7000

On the other hand, if Hariri takes the risk of taking these steps, the other party will not be handcuffed, neither constitutionally nor politically. It is enough for the President of the Republic to be a partner in the writing and signing, and without him there is no legitimacy for any government. Therefore, relevant sources confirm that there is no place to repeat Mustafa Adeeb’s experience. And when Hariri came forward as a natural candidate, he realized that Noa Adeeb could not be the basis for embarking on a serious path to government formation. So it was obvious that Hariri approved of it when he submitted his candidacy. This is what happened with respect to the Shiite action that it was agreed to call the double of Hezbollah and Amal, and this is what happened with Walid Jumblatt, who promised him two bags, one of which was balanced. Only the Free Patriotic Movement treated Hariri as if he did not exist. But if the matter is personal with Gebran Bassil, can he stay that way when selecting Christian ministers? Concerned sources say that what is true of what is not the current is also true of the current. Therefore, it must be present in the authorship negotiations regardless of the mechanism. This is something Hariri probably cannot bear, but in any case, the president of the republic will be on the prowl. Today starting from the House of Representatives. Will Berri manage to reunite Hariri and Bassil, so that the fourth Hariri government is an “improved and revised” version of the Hassan Diab government?

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