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The British newspaper The Daily Telegraph wondered who would succeed the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The report, translated by “Arabi 21,” stated that the longest-serving ruler of a Middle Eastern country will turn 82 this year, and the question is who will succeed him as the supreme guide of the Islamic Republic in Iran, especially after the news. that have been circulating for the past few years about his deteriorating health.
The latest rumor was that Iranian journalist Muhammad al-Ahwazi claimed in December that the ailing mentor had handed over his position to his 51-year-old son Mojtaba. In the past, however, the eight-year-old leader has escaped several challenges, including prostate surgery and an assassination attempt with a bomb planted in a tape recorder, which the Iranian government quickly denied, and the recent rumor about the inheritance of power of his son, which he said was an unlikely measure.
“Handing over power to his son will reduce the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic,” which replaced the monarchy, said London “Chatham House” researcher Sanam Wakil.
However, the question of who will succeed the guide has become important in light of the change of administration in the United States, and the possibility that President-elect Joseph Biden will return to negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear project, in addition to the presidential elections to be held this year.
Tension increased in recent days with the arrival of the first anniversary of the assassination of the famous American general Qassem Soleimani in a raid as he was leaving the Baghdad airport on January 3, 2019, and American forces sent B-52 fighters to the Gulf and submarines , in a show of force; To dissuade Tehran from any retaliation process.
On Saturday, Iran announced new plans to increase uranium enrichment rates at the Vodro facility, bringing it closer to nuclear weapons, in a way that increases pressure on the incoming Biden administration to build the deal that Donald Trump left in 2018. again.
From an Iranian perspective, the final decision on these key issues rests with the Supreme Leader. Wakil added that “his position carries the greatest weight, and his appointments will be from people who share his opinion.”
Although he did not name a successor, the guide looked beyond his tenure when he issued a statement on the 40th anniversary of the revolution in 1979 and the rise of the Islamic Republic. In it, he argued that the next four decades of the republic should rest on the shoulders of “the faithful young generation of Iranians who adhere to and follow the ideals of the Islamic Revolution.” Adherence to these ideals rests on the shoulders of the next guide, who “will set forth his vision of the Third Islamic Republic, whatever its form.”
In the event that the guide dies without choosing a successor, he will have the duty to elect the Assembly of Experts, whose 88 members are elected every eight years, a process that has only been carried out once in the past, which gives a limited precedent. Following the death of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, on June 3, 1989, the Assembly of Experts met in an emergency session to elect his successor. In a 2018 recording of the squad, Khamenei told his elected council in emotional terms: “I honestly don’t deserve this position.” He said: “According to the constitution, I am not qualified for this job,” indicating that one of the guide’s conditions is that he attain the highest degree in Shiite science.
This requirement was exceeded by former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who presided over the session, as the clergyman who belonged to the religious establishment’s middle class was appointed as an interim guide for a year. After that, the constitution was amended, allowing the appointment of a guide, albeit with a modest degree in Islamic science, allowing Khamenei to remain in office.
The relaxation of the conditions in the case of the current guide was a precedent, which meant drawing up new ones in the event of death. Who succeeds depends on the balance of power in the Iranian government, which in the previous period tended to favor the hardliners and Revolutionary Guards linked to the guide.
Several hardline candidates to succeed him have died, including Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, who died on Friday at the age of 86. This does not mean that the successor to the next guide is a reformer. And there are those who believe that the Revolutionary Guard, affiliated with the hard-line wing, will act swiftly and appoint its own candidate, in the event of Khamenei’s death.
“The final candidate must have ties to the Revolutionary Guard,” said Muhammad Jafari, an Iranian religious scholar living in exile. Khamenei’s son may have been supported by the Revolutionary Guards, but he does not have the support of high-level ayatollahs, who see him as incompetent in terms of religious knowledge, Jafari says.
But Sanam Wakil believes that the Revolutionary Guard will not move in this open way, “this will be seen as a military result” and “it is not excluded, but it is a small possibility”. In contrast, Judicial Chief Ibrahim Raisi, who was a candidate in the 2016 presidential election, is the strongest candidate according to many. “He’s conservative, and ideologically and personally, he’s close to Khamenei,” he said.
As the Trump administration continues to make its latest attempts to pressure Iran and force it into a new nuclear deal with tough terms, Tehran hopes the Biden administration will ease some of the harsh sanctions. However, Trump’s exit from the nuclear deal strengthened the militants.
The question remains who will succeed the current Supreme Leader; Because it will rule Iran for decades to come. “This is a critical year for the Islamic Republic,” says Wakil, adding: “At the micro level, the caliphate is the jackpot around which the battle will revolve.”
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