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According to the analysis:
“During a visit to Paris last month, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made it clear that Washington is not satisfied with France’s strategy to help resolve the economic and political crisis in Lebanon.”
The analysis indicated that “French President Emmanuel Macron is leading international efforts to lift the former French colony from the clutches of its deepest crisis since the civil war that broke out between 1975 and 1990, and has twice traveled to the Lebanon since the huge explosion in the port of Beirut in August. He wreaked great havoc on the city. “
He added that “Macron is trying to use the historic influence of Paris in Lebanon to persuade rival Lebanese politicians to adopt a road map and form a new government tasked with rooting out corruption, which is a prerequisite for donors. international organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, disburse aid worth billions of dollars. “
And the analysis continued: “He was scheduled to return for a third visit on December 22, but postponed the trip on Thursday after testing positive for the coronavirus, and Army Commander Francois Le Quanter will replace the president on the forces visit. French women on the ground, while an official involved in organizing the visit said: “Macron can speak with the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, but there are no other plans at this time.”
He noted that “from the beginning, the 42-year-old leader faced the stagnation of the divided Lebanese political class, which clashed with each other and ignored international warnings of state bankruptcy, as well as Washington’s rejection of his plans.”
In the analysis, Nadim Khoury of the Arab Reform Initiative said: “The Lebanese political class is caught in its own contradictions and is happy to buy time.
He stressed that Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri cannot form a government and, internationally, the United States will not facilitate French efforts to form a government.
The US objection to Macron’s plan centers on Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group that enjoys enormous power in Lebanon and has been designated by Washington as a terrorist organization.
Three French officials said Paris was initially unwilling to fill this role for Hariri, after it had previously failed to implement reforms. But without progress in forming a credible government, Macron did not oppose the nomination.
He continued: “France says the elected arm of Hezbollah has a legitimate political role.”
The United States has already imposed sanctions on three prominent Hezbollah allied politicians, and during a dinner in Paris last month with eight ambassadors, some of them ambassadors from European countries, Pompeo made it clear that Washington would impose more measures if Hezbollah were part of the government. according to two people familiar with the matter. Visit him. “
Responding to assurances that the United States is dissatisfied with the French efforts, a French presidential official said that President Donald Trump and Pompeo had repeatedly expressed their support for the French initiative to form a “government worthy of assistance. international”.
The official added that the United States participated in two donor conferences hosted by France, confirming its support.
The State Department said in a statement after Pompeo’s meeting with Macron that on Monday they discussed “major threats to global security, efforts to combat violent extremism, destabilizing behavior by Iran and Hezbollah’s malicious influence in the Libano”.
Without the support of the United States, international organizations and donors will not give Lebanon the funds it needs to emerge from a financial crisis that, according to the World Bank, will likely cause more than half of the population to fall into poverty to 2021.
After pledging amidst the rubble in Beirut not to abandon the Lebanese people, Macron seeks to show some foreign policy success in the region after emerging empty-handed from high-level initiatives on Libya and Iran in recent years.
For the outgoing US administration, taking a firm stance on Hezbollah is crucial to demonstrating that its broader Middle East policy, including maximum pressure policy on Iran, is effective.
Three diplomats said: They do not expect President-elect Joe Biden to change policy quickly, given the nature of the US position based on bipartisan support and other priorities for the new administration.
Biden also said: He plans to retract President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy on Iran, which he described as a “dangerous failure,” but sources familiar with his thinking said he would not distance himself from the use of sanctions, and disagreements with Washington exacerbated which has always been a difficult challenge for Macron.
He recalls: “When he had lunch with President Michel Aoun and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri on September 1, his goal was to make sure that Berri, head of the Amal Movement, met the deadline to form a new government.
Macron insisted on a time limit ranging from 10 to 15 days, according to a source familiar with the meeting. Berri responded, that he is one of the strongest figures in Lebanese political life and has participated in the election of key ministers in the past, saying: “God willing … God willing.” And Macron raised his hand, clarifying his refusal to do so and reiterating his demands.
Macron’s office said: “The president continues his contacts with various political actors in Lebanon, as he had promised before.”
A week later, and although Macron said that he had “accused all the factions of supporting his plan, the United States blacklisted two former ministers, one of them from the Amal movement, for their links with Hezbollah.”
Shortly thereafter, Macron said, in response to a question about the United States’ unwillingness to his efforts: “You are right in saying that the sanctions policy followed by the American administration, without consulting or coordinating with us, has led to a tense situation “.
Since then, sanctions have been imposed on the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil Sehr, on the President of the Republic Michel Aoun, which is Lebanon’s largest Christian party, due to his ties to Hezbollah. US, European and regional diplomats say: “New sanctions are on the horizon.”
Hezbollah has become the dominant force in Lebanon, with elected representatives and government positions, and while Iran’s support has been affected by US sanctions, the party remains a pillar of regional influence. from Tehran.
French officials say US punitive measures have done nothing to change the situation on the ground, and a French presidential official told reporters on December 2: “They have not stopped anything, but they have not paved the way for nothing”.
In an online conference by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dorothy Shea, the US ambassador to Lebanon, said that while preventing the failure of the state in Lebanon is the top priority, Washington believes that Hezbollah “only serves its masters. Iranians, “and said the US measures have an impact.
Israel, America’s staunchest ally in the Middle East, sees Iran as its biggest threat, and Hezbollah sees its main threat to its borders.
Iranian officials said: “Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah is in contact with Tehran to discuss how to deal with Macron’s initiative, but they will not allow Hezbollah to weaken.”
Meanwhile, Macron found himself alone as he blamed Lebanese politicians for failing to honor their commitments.
Macron said: “In January”, to this day, these commitments have not yet been fulfilled. There is nothing to show that they were more than mere words, and this is what I regret. “
