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Republicans have a majority of 53 seats in the Senate, compared to 47 for Democrats. Currently, there are 35 seats open for re-election, of which 23 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. Consequently, the latter would need to win three or four seats to obtain a majority in the Senate. And if these seats and the White House win, the party will win the Senate, while Vice President Kamala Harris will have the last word in the event of a tie (50-50). This fact prompted Delaware Senator Chris Kunz, a close Biden ally, to express optimism about the opportunities for Democrats, at a time when the statistical analysis site, “Five Thirty Eight,” indicated. Com “indicates that the Democrats’ chances of restoring the Senate are 68 out of 100. Even the conservative senator, Ted Cruz, who is loyal to Trump, has warned that Republicans may face a” watergate massacre.
Among the Republicans facing difficulties is Senator Lindsey Graham. The latter presides over hearings to confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Amy Connie Barrett. He is fighting for his political career in South Carolina, against a wealthy opponent. This state is known to be a republic and no Democrat has won a political office since 2002. However, this race will decide whether the Democratic candidate, Jamie Harrison, is capable of changing reality. Harrison will need to expand the constituency by mobilizing African American and younger voters in record numbers, while still needing to win over some Republican voters. And what helps Democrats is Graham’s fickle stance on Trump. While he eventually became his most prominent advocate, this strengthened his support from more conservative voters, who historically viewed him with suspicion for his work with the Democrats, while displeasing the Democrats and independents who often voted for him. In addition, some argue that his positions helped to alienate Republicans who oppose Trump.
There are 35 seats open for re-election during the current session
Also, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia and Iowa have been the four states that have catered to Democrats for months, and Republicans feared the president would hurt them there. As for Arizona, it has been a Republican state for decades, although Senators John McCain and Jeff Flick have been described as unconventional Republicans. In 2018, Democratic candidate Kirsten Senema beat Republican Martha Maxali to become the state’s first Democratic senator since the mid-1990s. In 2020, Maxalie will defend the seat previously held by McCain, in which she was named after her death. He trails Democrat Mark Kelly in opinion polls. According to the Brookings Institution, the changing electorate can explain each of Arizona’s Senate elections in 2018 and 2020. Trends in recent decades have resulted in more Latino voters in the state, more white voters with college education, and fewer white without them. scores. In addition, a survey by Smara Clare and Chris Weber of the University of Arizona revealed that residents of the state are more moderate in both parties than is assumed.
In Colorado, the contest between current Senator Corey Gardner (Republican) and former Governor John Hickenlooper (Democrat) will help determine the balance of power in the US Senate. A poll conducted in early October by the University of Colorado American Policy Research Laboratory showed that Hickenlooper was 8 points ahead of Gardner (48% – 40%) among potential voters, while 11% of respondents He said he was “undecided”. This margin is extended and reflected in poll numbers tied to the presidential race, which give Joe Biden an advantage over Trump. So will Gardner be able to escape Trump? In debates and announcements, Gardner tried, time and again, to distance himself from the president, asserting his bipartisan credentials and acting on behalf of all Coloradans. For his part, Hickenlooper tried to link Gardner to Trump, recalling his previous statements against the health law.
Finally, Georgia, which has always been considered the red par excellence, and has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, since 1992, the party’s behavior seems more complex, with signs of increasing competitiveness there. According to “Brookings”, while the special elections in Georgia have more than ten candidates, three of them remain. Of these, Raphael Warnock, pastor of Martin Luther King’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, emerged as the top Democratic candidate. Candidate Kelly Loeffler, who has been appointed to replace Republican Senator Johnny Isaacson, faces stiff competition from Congressman Doug Collins for the Republican vote. But given the number of candidates in the race, tied to the mandate in Georgia that the winner of the election get a clear majority of the votes, this race is expected to proceed to the second round in December. In context, Warnock’s progress seems certain. The question, however, is: Which Republican competitor will finish second? Opinion polls indicate that the score is close to the top two Republican competitors.
The next question that arises: what if the Democrats really did win?
If Democrats can keep the House of Representatives and restore the Senate and the White House, the party will have full control over the federal government, for the first time in 11 years. Police reform, climate change, and healthcare are all on his agenda. But before that, it is highly likely that they will approve an aid package to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic and the associated economic crisis. After that, they are expected to fundamentally change the way voting and government work in the United States, by expanding voting rights, reducing the influence of money in politics, strengthening moral restraints, and perhaps even ending the disruption of the Senate, among the reforms they hope to achieve. Democracy works best in the United States and the rest of its agenda is easier to implement.
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