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The first indication of the background of the maneuver is what the newspaper “Yediot Aharonot” reported on the Chief of Staff of the Army Aviv Kochavi, who declared in internal deliberations that the maneuver should be carried out, even if it led to the infection of 1000 soldiers with the Coronavirus. He justified his position by saying that “there is no other option.”
It is taken for granted that a maneuver of this magnitude and depending on the scenario from which it was launched, and in light of what Israel and the region are witnessing about the spread of the epidemic, is undoubtedly the result of an assessment of a situation. made by the military leadership. In his view, it concluded with the completion of the maneuvering decision, which could theoretically have been delayed for several months, especially since the last similar maneuver was more than two years ago. This means that it is the result of the fears that dominate the institution of political decision-making in Tel Aviv for scenarios that the region can reach, and that it is required to raise the level of preparation for the most dangerous for “Israel”, above all because one of the traditional tasks of the military is to prepare to expand the range of options before political leadership.
The assessment of the risks inherent in regional environmental developments on “Israeli national security” at this stage is materialized in the lack of commitment to the effects of the US sanctions that should have led, according to the National Security Research Institute for 2020 , to the uprising of the Iranian people or an American war. The regime of the Islamic Republic falls, or its submission, by sitting at the negotiating table on US conditions. However, none of these scenarios materialized. It did not even lead to a decrease in the military support it provides to Hezbollah and the rest of the resistance forces in the region, which led to a refusal to show flexibility towards the basic problems of the region.
Not betting on sanctions is strategic. This is placing Israel and the rest of the United States’ allies on highly excluded paths more than two years ago. And it forced them to look for additional alternative options to contain the upward path of resistance axis capabilities, despite the US attack that still continues, starting with Iran, passing through Iraq and Syria, and ending in Lebanon.
In parallel, the Israeli commitment to the path that had been started in Lebanon since October 17 last year has also dissipated. Tel Aviv saw in him, regardless of the just demands made by its participants, an ideal opportunity to achieve two levels of results: isolating Hezbollah politically and governmentally, stripping the party of its audience, and imposing restrictions on its options and the development of its activities. capabilities.
On the other hand, Hezbollah, faced with the worsening financial and economic situation, demonstrated its determination to install the deterrence equation that protects Lebanon and the resistance from the Israeli threat. This was evident in his determination to respond to the martyrdom of one of his resistance fighters in the vicinity of the Damascus International Airport more than 100 days ago. What gives this determination exceptional importance at this particular stage is that the internal Lebanese context represents, in the Israeli perspective, an opportunity that can be bet on to impose restrictions on Hezbollah by exploring options to respond to specific Israeli attacks. , which is tempting the decision-making establishment in Tel Aviv to expand the scope of the attacks launched in Syria against Lebanon, and the basis for changing the internal equation in Lebanon.
It is not a temporary matter that the maneuver starts from the scene of the forces of Al-Radwan (the elite forces in the resistance) storming the Galilee area in northern occupied Palestine. And that the first mission of the army is to repel this incursion, and then move to the initiative-response stage, as revealed by the army, as reported by Israeli media reports. In addition to training to face the scenario of exposure to “swarms of Iranian cruise missiles and drones that attacked us from Syria, Lebanon and two other countries”, apparently Iraq and Yemen, according to other reports. On the basis of precedents that the enemy fears a repeat, with more dangerous versions, the occupying army has also adopted a scenario of “Israel” being subjected to a missile attack “similar to the attack on the Aramco facilities in Arabia. Saudi, but multiplied by a thousand “. In other words, “Israel” would be exposed, as confirmed by Channel 13 military commentator Alon Ben David, to “thousands of cruise missiles and drones.”
The scenario of the maneuver also reveals the deterrent role that the resistance managed to achieve.
These operational scenarios, which constituted the starting point for the enemy’s maneuver, mean that they are based on the premise that developments in the region are heading towards the most dangerous scenario. This brings us back to the admission by the enemy leadership of the failure of their bets, beginning with Iran and ending with Lebanon. The scenario of maneuvers at this particular stage reveals the depth of the presence of Hezbollah’s option to assault the Galilee region, with the political and military leaders. And that Hizbullah still has the determination and the ability to implement that, and the internal developments that Lebanon is witnessing have failed to dispel these dangers, if “Israel” initiates what Hizbullah believes should be responded to at this level.
The most important thing in this context is that the scenario of the maneuver also reveals the deterrent role that the resistance has achieved, and whose most prominent manifestation is its presence in the enemy’s leadership, which should be taken into account when studying its aggressive options. This contributed to strengthening the deterrent force of the resistance in Lebanon, in the face of some of the options that seemed to have persecuted the enemy leaders in the previous stage. It is also true that it will also help to slow down the progression of any confrontation towards war, in the event of a military confrontation.
At the same pace, the scenario of expanding the scope of the military engagement is also preparing for a major war in the region in which “Israel” is exposed to thousands of precision cruise missiles and remote drones. This also reveals the regional deterrent role of the Axis of Resistance Coalition, in the face of an American-Israeli war in the region, starting or rolling. And this was evident on more than one regional station. Consequently, it is clear, and more importantly, that the scenario of “swarms” of mobile and precise “drones” and missiles is digging deep into the consciousness of decision makers in Tel Aviv.
There remains an issue that must remain present when evaluating any development that seems for a moment to constitute an opportunity and a motive for the enemy, to initiate aggressive options aimed at radically changing the local (Lebanese) and regional equation, which is that there is a emerging that has been and is on the upward path, which is the change of power equations (in a broad sense) radically. The scenarios from which the maneuver was launched is one of the manifestations of this recognition. This variable in the power equations represented an invalid marker for some options and a limiting factor for others.
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