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The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached an agreement with Russia that provides for the establishment of joint military points in the vicinity of Ain Issa, north of Raqqa. The agreement between the two parties is supposed to prevent a military operation threatening Turkey from early December.
On Wednesday, the Gree Spi / Tal Abyad Military Council announced that it had reached an agreement to deploy joint observation points with the Russian military. The council’s commander, Riad al-Khalaf, told a press conference that “they reached an agreement to establish 3 joint observation points to the east, west and north of the city on the international highway.”
Russia began to implement the first stages of the agreement with the SDF and sent a military police convoy to the center of the Ain Issa district, which included heavy military vehicles and vehicles, and was accompanied by military groups from the 25th Division. of Special Mission (before Tiger Forces). The Russian flag was flown at a number of headquarters and institutions within the city, and deployment operations and the establishment of joint observation barracks are supposed to continue until the end of 2020.
The Qasd accepted the Russian offer after making some amendments to it and agreed, under the amended agreement, a partial withdrawal of Ain Issa and the participation of the regime forces in various points of contact with the opposition and the Turkish army, but the actual control remains and the supreme word of the SDF, which is a scenario similar to the scenario that was applied. In the Tal Rifaat and Manbij areas in the Aleppo countryside for the past two years, which is a successful experiment for the SDF, during which it managed to preserve the two areas and at the same time did not completely hand them over to the regime and Russia.
The Syrian regime has not issued any official statement on the recent agreement in Ain Issa, and it appears that it is not satisfied with the concessions of the SDF as a price for the alleged protection of the Turkish military operation. A member of the Russian Reconciliation Center, Sheikh Omar Rahmon, said in a tweet: “The agreement provides for the establishment of joint points and then the gradual handover of the Ain Issa camp to the regime forces and Russia, and the activation of state departments in the region, and the implementation period of the agreement extends from eight months to one year. “
Rahmoun added: “The SDF raised the Russian flag at some of its headquarters in Ain Issa and refused to raise the flag of the Syrian regime. What happened was to laugh at their beards and avoid reality, and only what happened in Manbij de continued American malice and the employment of Qasd will not happen in Ain Issa. “
Military analyst Captain Abdul Salam Abdul Razzaq said that “the agreement reached by the SDF with Russia is a tactical agreement, through which it is trying to get through the difficult period in which it is living without losses in the geography of control, but at the same time he doesn’t want to pay a high price for it. “
He added to Al-Modon that “the agreement provides for other undeclared provisions, such as increasing the amounts of crude oil flowing into the system, and more regularly, and allowing the importation of grain and cotton from the eastern Euphrates regions, and these advantages are in exchange for staying in Ain Issa and modifying the terms of the first Russian offer. ”
Abdul Razzaq considered that “the regime has a great interest in any agreement with the Qasd, even if it does not fully fulfill its ambitions. These agreements establish a new stage in which the regime will return to the region and can then benefit from the wealth, and this it is also a Russian interest. “
The recent agreement between the SDF and Russia raises an important question about the position of Turkey and its supporting opposition factions in the “Fountain of Peace” area east of the Euphrates, and will the agreement prevent battle? Will the Ain Issa file become the Manbij and Tal Rifaat files, or will the Afrin scenario be repeated again in 2018? When the Russian forces had a military post at Kafr Janna and before the start of the battle, they withdrew completely, paving the way for the entry of the Turkish army and the factions.
“The agreement is tiered and does not meet the demands of the SDF, nor does it meet the aspirations of the regime and Russia, so we do not see it obstructing the military operation, which will start as soon as the moment is ripe,” Hisham Skeif said. , political official of the “Peace Brigade” of the National Army.
In turn, the researcher at the “Bridges Center for Studies” Abd al-Wahhab Asi said: “Such a deployment may partially hinder a possible military operation by opposition factions in the Ain Issa axis, but if Turkey insists on launching an attack , it can go on to maneuver, that is, avoiding the sites of the observation points “. Russian or the joint regime with the Syrian regime, similar to the tactics the latter followed during its military operations in northwestern Syria between 2019 and 2020. ”
He added to Al-Modon, “Russia may have invested in Qasd’s concerns that Turkey and the opposition factions will implement a new military operation, in order to strengthen the presence of the Syrian regime east of the Euphrates and expand its tasks that they limited themselves to patrolling small numbers and very light weapons in the Ayn al-Arab area as long as their forces allowed. ” With a safe passage to their areas of influence in the Hasakah governorate, and therefore, according to the new deployment, the regime forces will have a military presence in greater numbers and a greater extent, possibly with heavy weapons.
He added: “There is no reason for the certainty that Turkey will launch a military operation in the Ain Issa axis, and there is still the possibility of launching operations in other axes, such as Darbasiyah, making the SDF losers in both cases, that is, by giving the regime and Russia additional free profits without any real guarantee. ” .
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