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In the last 36 hours of his life, the commander of the Quds Force, Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, was meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, after he arrived by land from Damascus from Tehran on January 2, 2020.
For more than three hours, the two men discussed events in Iraq, and a Hezbollah representative was informed that the purpose of the talks was to help coordinate the work of the Iranian-backed armed factions in the region, in order to prepare them. for any possible confrontation with the United States.
Political and military strikes
Since his death, Iranian militias have stumbled in the region and been subjected to political “coups”, especially in Iraq after Mustafa Al-Kazemi became president of the government, and militarily, especially in Syria, where Israel has led carried out numerous raids on their sites without responding to them.
But many wondered about the role that the largest organization among Iranian arms, which is the Lebanese Hezbollah, played after the assassination of the “architect” of Iranian expansion in the region, especially since the leader of the party, Hassan Nasrallah, had indicated in his speech after Soleimani’s assassination, that “after Soleimani’s inauguration we no longer need to send delegations to Iran to request support or assistance, or to explain situations, circumstances or difficulties. He always came to us and was very close “.
Shortly after Soleimani’s death, reports emerged of a meeting held in Beirut to rally Iraqi factions loyal to Iran and organize them to avenge Soleimani. Some of them even spoke about the Iranian leaders’ request that the Hezbollah secretary general assume Soleimani’s responsibilities, but he refused for reasons related to his personal security, because Soleimani was fluent in Arabic and was responsible for overseeing operations. foreign members of the Revolutionary Guard, and he was heavily involved in directing and coordinating the actions of the Iranian-backed militias in the region, forcing him to travel between various Arab capitals.
Great impact of his absence in Hezbollah
Bashar al-Halabi, political analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at ClipperData-NYC, told Al-Arabiya.net, “Soleimani’s absence affected Hezbollah a lot, because it accompanied the establishment of this organization since its inception in 1982. , so he was by his side on the ground. The battle during the war in July 2006, and personally visited southern Lebanon.
“Soleimani is an irreplaceable figure not only for Hezbollah, but for the Iranian axis as a whole in the region, especially since it used to play a role larger than the size of any Iranian institution,” he said.
A turning point in the conflict
For his part, retired military analyst Khaled Hamadeh told Al-Arabiya.net: “The assassination of Suleiman represented a fundamental turning point in the conflict between the United States and Iran in the region, because the assassination of a valuable target Iranian was the size of the commander of the Quds Force, whose responsibilities were distributed among Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. ” He presented many challenges to Iran, titled “No Red Lines” on Iranian targets on the US list.
Nasrullah Hadd Mudarj
It also considered that “Suleiman’s assassination included in Hezbollah’s calculations the possibility that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was the second US target.”
“Soleimani’s assassination limited Hezbollah’s role to the Lebanese interior, in parallel with the cessation of its role in the deployment of force abroad, beginning with negotiations on the demarcation of the borders with Israel, when it did not express no objection, and ending with statements of “disavowal” of any violation of the borders with Israel, he said.
However, he noted, on the other hand, that “any deviation from the limits of the game set by the Americans will have high costs. Hence what happened with Soleimani and the Iranian and Hezbollah statements that followed, with revenge and revenge, controlling the tempo of any alleged “Hezbollah” operation. Across the Lebanese border or outside. “
unanswered
In addition, he stated, “There will be no response to the assassination of Soleimani, neither by Hezbollah nor by the Iraqi militias,” considering that nuclear scientist Mustafa Fakhrizadeh is a more valuable target than Soleimani, because he is linked to the nuclear agreement, but Tehran has not responded. to his murder. Because it does not have the ability to “hunt down” an American or Israeli target the size of Fakhri Zadeh or Soleimani. “
After the assassination of Soleimani, drastic changes took place in Iraq, especially with the coming to power of Mustafa Al-Kazemi, where he took many measures, all aimed at curbing the influence of Iran and its militias, such as his announcement to lay the foundations of the state and confine weapons in the hands of legitimate forces, as well as their control of the Syrian borders. Al-Iraqiya in exchange for the opening of the Arar crossing with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and this provoked the incitement of the Iranian militias, especially the Iraqi Hezbollah, against Al-Kazemi to hinder their mission.
Meanwhile, Al-Halabi considered that “the situation of Hezbollah today in Lebanon is better than that of the Iraqi militias, and the economic and financial crisis afflicting Lebanon as well as the decline in the level of the battle in Syria are factors that they made him focus more on the internal Lebanese situation, because his incubator environment suffers. ” He cannot be “comfortable” abroad at a time when the internal situation in Lebanon is not strong.
From here, Al-Halabi added, “Hezbollah’s role in the region has diminished, because it cannot manage important files in the region that Soleimani was managing.”
Qaani didn’t fill the void
Furthermore, he saw that Ismail Qaani could neither play the central role of Soleimani as the new leader of the Quds Force nor fill its void, especially in relation to the relationship with the military branches of the region. This was evident in Iran’s position in Iraq. According to Al-Halabi, if Soleimani were still alive, Al-Kazemi would not have been prime minister in Iraq, nor would he have taken the measures he is taking against Iranian militias.
Organize accounts
He noted that the Iranian regime, from the top of the pyramid to the bottom, “realized” the size of the loss it suffered after Soleimani’s assassination and reorganized its accounts in the region. Instead of focusing on each country and interfering with its details as Soleimani used to do, he now manages the archives of the region as a whole, and he confronted me. More bureaucratic than Soleimani, who was the inspiring leader and the intelligence, security and political mind of the Iranian regime.
Regarding the conflict with Israel, Brigadier General Hamadeh considered that “the assassination of Soleimani introduced new controls to this open conflict with Israel and to the US-Iranian conflict.” He noted that “expressions of intimidation, threats and intimidation fell from Nasrallah’s speeches on Soleimani’s assassination as soon as he did not oppose negotiations to demarcate land and sea borders with Israel.”
Moral effect
On the other hand, Muhannad al-Hajj, a resident academic at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said: “Soleimani’s assassination had a moral effect on Hezbollah, but the latter had grown stronger internally.”
He believed that “the US sanctions policy did not directly affect Hezbollah,” and said: “At a time when the Lebanese were denied access to their dollar deposits held in banks, we see Hassan Loan Corporation affiliate giving dollars to their customers. “
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