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On Friday, the US secretary of state and Afghan government negotiators met in Doha on the eve of talks with the Taliban aimed at ending nearly two decades of war, despite little hope for a peace deal. soon.
The two arch-aggressors, the Afghan government and the Taliban, will meet in the Qatari capital starting Saturday, six months late from the scheduled date due to differences on the subject of the exchange of prisoners.
These US-backed talks represent an important step in the 19-year-old Afghan conflict, but a peace agreement, or even a ceasefire, is out of reach due to the extreme disparity between the negotiators’ goals.
Pompeo, who arrived in Doha on Friday, said in a statement that “the launch of these talks represents a historic opportunity for Afghanistan to end four decades of war and bloodshed,” and stressed that “this opportunity must not be wasted.” .
Pompeo told reporters while traveling to Qatar that the two sides should clarify “how to push your country forward to reduce violence and present what the Afghan people are asking for. Afghanistan is reconciled with a government that reflects a country that is not in war”.
President Donald Trump, running for a second term in elections scheduled for November, pushed for the withdrawal of US forces and an end to the longest war the United States has ever fought, which began nearly 20 years ago when Washington invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban movement after the September 11 attacks.
Vanda Philpab-Brown, an Afghanistan expert at the Brookings Institution, said the negotiations “will be long and arduous and can go on for years, with many pauses sometimes for several months and the fighting continues.”
Any agreement will be based on the willingness of the two parties to adapt their visions for the country and the method of sharing power.
The Taliban, who refuse to recognize the government of President Ashraf Ghani, will seek to turn Afghanistan into an Islamic “emirate.”
As for the Ghani administration, it will seek to preserve the status quo, supported by the West, for a constitutional republic that enshrines many rights and more freedoms for women.
So far, the Taliban have only made ambiguous promises to protect women’s rights through “Islamic values.” Many Afghans fear that any partial or full return of the Taliban to power heralds the resumption of past policies, such as the execution of women accused of adultery.
“As much as we want peace, we also want to preserve the gains made in recent years,” said Amin Allah, 35, a professor from Kunduz province.
He added: “I don’t want the school I work at to close, but peace is the priority now.”
Claim of “victory” –
The Taliban, who ruled most of Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, will be in a stronger bargaining position than at any time since their removal from power.
He declared “victory” in February after signing an agreement with Washington that set a timetable for talks that were to begin in March, in addition to the withdrawal of foreign forces early next year.
In return, the Taliban offered security guarantees that their critics said were ambiguous and easily reversible.
Shortly after the agreement was signed, the insurgents launched new attacks against the Afghan forces and maintained an intense pace on the battlefield.
The agreement does not stipulate that the Taliban must formally abandon the al Qaeda network of former Osama bin Laden, which enjoyed a safe haven in Afghanistan while planning the attacks on September 11, 2001.
However, the agreement requires the Taliban to “not allow” such groups to use Afghanistan as a base.
“The positions of the Taliban … indicate that the movement believes that its current position places it in a position of great strength,” said Andrew Watkins, an Afghan analyst at the International Crisis Group.
While the Taliban have generally emerged as a united front, the Afghan government has suffered from long-standing personal disputes and rivalries.
– Stop the fire –
The immediate point of contention is expected to be the question of stopping the bloodshed in the war, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians and displaced millions more.
The US agreement emphasized that the Taliban would only include a permanent truce “as an agenda item” in the negotiations, but Kabul insists on pushing for a ceasefire from day one, which the Taliban said was totally unacceptable. .
Watkins explained that the Taliban “do not trust the United States or the Afghan government enough to stop the fighting, until the peace talks reach a stage where their members consider that their group has really secured their interests.”
However, Philpab-Brown said, the Taliban would rather have a peace deal than have to fight for control of the rest of Afghanistan, especially Kabul.
Even if the Taliban and the Afghan government finally reach an agreement, the next stage remains unclear.
The United States affirmed that the future of Afghanistan is now in the hands of the Afghans and considered that if the peace process collapses and a civil war breaks out, that is its responsibility.
“Let’s be clear: this is not a peace negotiation. This is about the United States leaving” the country, said Christine Fair, an expert on South Asia at Georgetown University.
