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Michel Abu Negm wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat:
When the French president was asked about the cards he had to succeed in the mission to save Lebanon, he frankly replied: “My political credibility.” Today, this credibility seems to be at stake after the expiration of the first deadline set by Emmanuel Macron to incorporate a “mission government” independent of parties and made up of specialists and away from quotas, and in order to implement an economic-financial program. developed by Paris, to take into account the demands of the Lebanese people. And to which the “Lebanon Support Group” and the international financial institutions that will play an important role in lifting Lebanon out of its difficult situation adhere to.
The process of forming the next government headed by Mustafa Adib has reached a “bottleneck” after the obstacles that were put in the way, either in terms of bringing the “Shiite duo” to the Ministry of Finance, or by the desire of the President of the Republic for an expanded government, or to affirm to the other parties that they are “reluctant” to participate or even approach. The political dynamism that Macron created with his two visits on August 6 and the first of this month was lost in the maze of Lebanese political squares and in the complexities of the regional situation and the open war between Paris and Tehran. On the “carrot and stick” policy.
Paris is running out of patience. Three days ago, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that “the priority in Lebanon must be to quickly reach the formation of a government in charge of carrying out the necessary reforms for the reactivation of the country.” Yesterday, given the complexity of the situation, it was the turn of the presidency to remind the Lebanese political class, without specifying this or that group, the need to respect the promises they made to President Macron. According to the presidential official, as reported by “Reuters”, “It is not too late: everyone must shoulder their responsibilities and ultimately act only in the interests of Lebanon by giving Mustafa Adeeb the opportunity to form a government that adapts to the gravity of the situation”. In other words, Paris does not consider that the period of 15 days that Macron gave Lebanese politicians is “sacred” and that the important thing is to reach the formation of the next government to face the “dangerous situation” in which Lebanon finds itself. In diplomatic language, the Elysee Palace expresses its “regret” for the failure of political leaders to carry out a mission related to the “salvation” of Lebanon.
Communication between Beirut and Paris at all levels continues to overcome difficulties, and their first title was Lebanese, with the “Shiite duo” glued to the Ministry of Finance. According to Paris, he has “no problem” with regard to the sect of the Minister of Finance or any other minister, since what he is concerned about is the operation to rescue Lebanon. On the other hand, what constitutes a source of inconvenience and what you fear is that giving in to the will of the Shiite party is equivalent to overthrowing the essence of the French initiative and the agreed principles, that is, moving away from quotas, the arrival of a government of independents and thus lay the foundations of the reform project that Paris defends and the international community behind it.
Likewise, Paris sees in this accession a desire to continue dominating government decisions, which means putting the reform plan at the mercy of accepting one side or that. At the same time, the French team that follows the Lebanese file is aware that walking through a “confrontational government” will mean the multiplication of obstacles before Mustafa Adib, who does not want such a government to confront the Shiite duo or any other group, rather, it seeks a government that is productive, harmonious, and enjoys the greatest support.
French circles reported that a number of “challenges” await the next government, the first of which is to win the trust of the street and the trust of the international community and its financial institutions, and to win the trust and cooperation of the Chamber of Representatives, as it will not grant you the exceptional powers to obtain the necessary laws quickly. Likewise, the government must immediately initiate the required reform process. From this angle, his birth “is only the first step on the thousand-mile journey.”
From the beginning, the French team that followed the Lebanese dossier followed a “carrot and stick” policy. On the carrot side, Macron promised to mobilize his friends, the international community, and financial institutions through a new conference reaffirming the findings of the “Cedar” conference in spring 2018. As a bonus, Paris suggested inviting to the main political parties to a conference in France similar to the “Cell-Saint-Cloud” conference. “In July 2007, to fill the presidential void at that time. France also promised not to leave Lebanon, to keep up with it and to ensure a regional and international safety net. Unlike the United States, which imposes sanctions on Hezbollah and former ministers, Macron removed Hezbollah’s weapons archive from the debate, abandoned the call for early elections and restricted his concern to the economic – financial – social and construction record, leaving the political record. for a later stage.
In short, Macron proposed to the Lebanese politicians a “contract” to which he committed and hopes that the Lebanese politicians will deliver on their part with what they promised. But if this approach fails, Paris is willing to go the other way, which is called intimidation, that is, sanctions against “spoilers,” and Macron was explicit in his warning. Perhaps the strongest punishment for Lebanon as a whole is for France to remove its hand from the record and leave the Lebanese to their fate and their games without forgetting the overlapping regional and international dimensions in Lebanon, and one of its titles is recent US sanctions on two former ministers and Washington’s willingness to impose sanctions on other personalities and organizations in the near future. The question posed: Will the French hinting at sanctions be enough to twist the arm of the “rebels” against the French initiative, or will such an order increase their hardening and rejection?
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