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Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc and form a new Middle East axis, despite the economic obstacles these countries face, so what are the chances that this bloc will become a major player in the region? ?

The leaders of the three countries held their third such meeting in a year and a half, on August 25, less than a week after Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s first visit to Washington, and following the signing of the agreement. of peace between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.

The three leaders established an executive secretariat in Amman with an annual rotating headquarters starting this year at the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

An old alliance renewed

This is not the first time that the three countries have formed an alliance with each other, according to Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies expert Sameh Rashid in his interview with Al-Hurra.

In 1989, he announced the creation of the “Arab Cooperation Council” between Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Yemen, “and it was a great surprise for the Gulf countries and Syria.”

Rashid added: “The vision of Egypt at that time is similar to the current one, which is that the Gulf states are not guaranteed, Iraq is a strong and rich country, and Jordan and Yemen are a thorn in the back and head of Arabia. Saudi “.

However, this alliance collapsed a few months after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. ”

What are the goals of this group?

At the third summit, the leaders discussed regional political issues, but focused on the economic, as they emphasized “the importance of strengthening cooperation and adopting the best forms and mechanisms to translate strategic relations on the ground, especially economic and vital ones, such as electrical connectivity, energy projects and the common economic zone, and take advantage of national capacities in pursuit of the integration of resources ”. Between the three countries “.

On the political level, the three countries highlighted their support for the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and highlighted the need to intensify efforts to reach political solutions to the crises in the region, such as Syria, Yemen and Libya, as well as the Ethiopian Renaissance dam dilemma.

‘Broken links’

Regarding the reasons for the return of the alliance between the trio, Rashid says that there are a number of reasons, including that each country has “forced” alliances with countries and parties stronger than it, so the relationship with these parties remains. unbalanced and affects the policies of the three countries in many files.

He clarifies that the confined alliances are that “Egypt is with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Iraq is with Iran and Turkey. Jordan is with Saudi Arabia and Israel,” noting that the three countries are trying to break these ties and intimidate each other. .

However, Iraqi security expert Hussein Allawi believes in his interview with Al-Hurra that the new axis does not nullify current alliances.

He says: “The new idea of ​​the Iraqi Prime Minister is to change the planning method of Iraqi foreign policy from circles to the style of spaces, that there are parallel spaces, whether economic with the Gulf, an Islamic space towards Iran and Turkey, a space Arab towards the Arab Maghreb countries and a European and American space and other friendly countries. And I support Iraq. ”

However, Allawi indicates that what is distinctive about this new bloc is that it is “one of the important independent axes that moves away from the politics of the eastern or western axes, and also gives Iraq the opportunity to meet with its counterparts, already be it Jordan or Egypt. ”

He added: “We are a rapprochement with the peoples of these countries, and in return there is an understanding between these societies, whether at an economic, political or security level, which makes this group one of the axes of moderation in the region. to strengthen ties and the exchange of trade, knowledge and experts. ”

It seems that all three countries think the same logic, as Rashid says, “Egypt is currently defining its alliances in various directions, but there is one thing between them, which is the search for similar countries to have a comparative economic or strategic advantage, and this it is very available in Iraq and Jordan, although they are, Yemen would also become a fourth party on this axis. “

The Jerusalem Institute for Strategic and Security Studies analyzes the problems and power of the three countries that make up the new axis, seeing that Egypt has worked in the last two years to increase its activity and influence in the Middle East, especially in the north. Africa and Mediterranean issues, while continuing to work on most other issues side by side. Along with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

As for Jordan, according to the analysis, “regardless of its diplomatic capacity and coordination between the parties, it is threatened in the midst of successive events, while Iraq still has much to cut back to return to its regional importance.”

The analysis also indicates that the recent peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates threatens to sideline Egypt and Jordan, after the two countries played a major role as major Arab hubs in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and are also concerned about the marginalization of the Palestinian cause, because unlike the Gulf states, they will be directly affected by their geographic location.

“spine”

The Al-Quds Institute, in an analysis of the expert on strategic and political developments in the Arab world, Joshua Krasna, considers Jordan as the “backbone” of this new axis, due to its strategic location.

It points out the possibility of establishing a commercial channel that passes through Aqaba in Jordan from the port of Nuweiba in Sinai to Iraq, as well as the integration of the electrical networks of the three countries.

Amman, for its part, is seeking to free up stalled deals with Iraq, such as the activation of a joint industrial zone on the Jordanian-Iraqi borders (which were delayed due to the Iraqi slowdown). And the establishment of a pipeline to export Iraqi oil from Basra to Aqaba.

Four days before the summit, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi had unleashed statements about the “New Sham” project in an interview with The Washington Post, saying that “the new Levante project according to the European version will be presented to the leaders of Egypt and Jordan, explaining that the project will allow capital inflows. ” The technology between the three countries is freer. “

What are the chances that the Cairo – Amman – Baghdad axis will become a major player in the region?

Rashid believes that the formation of the new axis “does not necessarily mean the success of the coordination, since the reasons for its failure are present and strong.”

He clarifies that “Iraq will not be able to easily act outside of Iran’s control, and the Jordanian decision cannot be completely independent of American approval and Israeli acceptance, and the Gulf money still has a strong word for Egypt.”

However, Rashid affirms at the same time that “the establishment of an axis, alliance or bloc between the three countries will certainly give them power and give each of them a participation or a role in the issues that concern the other two countries. , which means an opponent of the role and influence of Iran, the Gulf and Washington. “

“When the power of Egypt (human and military) meets the resources (oil) of Iraq, with the mindset, sophistication and position of Jordan, the other parties should be concerned,” he explains.

But Rashid does not want the current coordination to become “an institutional organization or alliance, at least in the short term.”

Krasna agrees with him, saying that “the tripartite combination may allow them to have more influence and” strategic depth “vis-à-vis powers outside the region and the Gulf states, but in the end, all three countries are poor (despite the Iraq’s oil resources) and depend on generosity. Economic partners are richer. ”

“None of the three countries has the capacity to be a funder for others and, therefore, their aspirations and regional strategies will be limited,” he explains.

But Allawi believes that this bloc can really help solve some of the thorny issues in the region, “where mistrust prevails, and withdrawal from war is more than withdrawal from peace. I hope it will be a quiet axis away from the conflicts of will in the region, everyone will prefer to contact them and treat them as a result of attractiveness and impartiality. ” The three countries “.