No elections before mid-2022



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Negotiations to end the Libyan crisis remain difficult. It is true that the knots are gradually being resolved, while all the interested parties are ready to agree on a new roadmap. However, these negotiations face complex problems, as a result of many demands or objections to specific people, including participants in dialogue sessions. In Gammarth, Tunisia, the “Political Dialogue Forum” continues, facing accusations of bias in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters, but at the same time there is good progress, according to monitoring sources, in the ongoing negotiations for virtual means of communication since the end of last month, and by direct meetings. Since last Monday, to build a transition phase that ends the crisis in mid-2021.

The current vision includes electing a new government that will hold elections within 18 months, during which the constitution will be drafted with the possibility of extending it for a further six months, which means that the Libyan elections will not be held before the second half of 2022, which is a distant date compared to what was announced by the head of the Al-Wefaq government, Fayez Al-Sarraj. In reference to next March. In addition, the dialogue project includes the provision of seven months to stabilize the constitutional basis on which the elections will be held to finalize the primary phase. Should the forces fail to prepare them, the forum sponsored by the United Nations would work on it, taking into account the provision of safe return for the displaced and deportees in the coming months.
On the other hand, there are matters that have not been agreed upon, among them the constitutional norm for elections in the absence of a new constitution, which means that the elected authority, when it begins its work, must draft a constitution, which makes even the transfer of power to an elected government and parliament is the beginning of another transitory stage, which is what Some parties reject it, preferring first to adopt a constitution and then hold elections on its basis. The draft forum also faced criticism regarding the stipulation that “Islam is the main source of legislation”, a point that some tribes demand to amend it and recognize the custom as one of the sources of legislation, while pending issues have not been resolved. Among them is the new government selection mechanism.

Egyptian sources reveal that Al-Sarraj secretly visited Cairo for a few hours.

As for the city of Sirte, since yesterday, over three days, it has hosted the meetings of the military committee “5 + 5”, which includes representatives of the forces of Al-Wefaq and Khalifa Haftar. The meeting was held to discuss the mechanisms for a ceasefire on the ground, amid optimism that many of the trouble spots would be resolved and that security institutions would be unified, as well as an understanding on a mechanism that would prevent the fighting again. Despite this, sources on the side of Haftar, as well as Al-Wefaq, speak of “plans to spoil the negotiations”, through assassinations that in turn represent pressure on the two negotiating delegations. So far, things are going well, amid the anticipation of announcing what will be achieved by the end of Thursday, with the possibility of extending the meetings or agreeing on a new round of committee dialogue.
Moving to Cairo, a high-ranking Al-Wefaq delegation arrived, meeting with intelligence and security officials for hours, and it is rumored that among its members Al-Sarraj himself, on his first visit to El Cairo in years, after receiving his government’s interior minister, Fathi Bashagha, last week on an official and public visit. . Although Cairo is silent on the details of any visit by Libyan officials unless they meet with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, the visit by the recent Tripoli delegation represents a break in the stalemate that lasted about two years, in between of an initial agreement to organize an announced visit to Al-Sarraj soon within the meetings that are being organized, and this is a change. Basically, either from Egypt, which did not welcome the man and describes him as the illegal head of government, or from the latter, who leaned towards Turkish positions.
Egyptian sources say that an essential part of Cairo’s change of tone towards “Al-Wefaq” is due to the recent emphasis on goodwill in recent weeks, as well as the concessions that were made to return to coordination, while the question of convergent opinions became possible, especially with all the solutions and proposals presented. Reconsidering some of the decisions and actions taken recently, the sources add.

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