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Hayam Al-Qasifi wrote in “Al Akhbar”:
Although the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, blamed the Shiite duo and rejected their accession to the Ministry of Finance, this does not mean that there is a coup against their ally. His statement is mere political routine, foreign messages and activation of the current popular base.
The first impression of President Michel Aoun’s statement appeared to be a coup against his ally Hezbollah, and that by placing points in the government formation letters, he was sending a message to the party to abandon the Shiite duo’s accession to the Ministry. Finance, and that the threat of US sanctions did what it did, just as the French hinted at the need to honor Lebanese promises. This is a first impression. But a quiet political reading that gives Aoun’s words other dimensions. So, did the President of the Republic need this look to announce that he refuses to assign a sect to a ministry, after last week it was celebrated with contradictory messages about his intention to sign any formation that President-designate Mustafa Adib presents him with? , and to throw the ball in the court of Parliament? Or was Aoun’s message more external than internal?
It is true that the president of the republic formally equated in criticizing the performance of representatives of the Sunni and Shiite sects in the composition process, which was considered to be sending a clear message for the first time to his ally, but in reality it is not it deviated a lot from the party in the general form of the composition process, away from the resentment that grows in the rules. His nationalist bias towards Hezbollah for reasons not exclusively related to the government. However, popular discontent is a matter that differs from domestic and foreign political goals, and current observations on the party’s management of the authorship battle or demand for expanded decentralization have nothing to do with the larger headline. which relates to the next phase. Aoun’s first and last objective is related to strategy, and in this sense he does not depart from his ally, nor can he separate himself from him to chart the future path of his successor, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement and his permanent candidate. to the presidency, so it is not possible to bet on his coup against his ally on the eve of the end of two-thirds of his presidential term. . This is the point, because Aoun and MP Gebran Bassil distinguished themselves from President Nabih Berri and his opposition to him, and the party of mutual responses does not at all mean leaving the party at this sensitive stage, which they use to send public warning signals .
It was natural that Hezbollah did not respond to the president of the republic, who left separate voices attacking all critics of the duo’s accession to the Ministry of Finance, headed by the Maronite Patriarchate, because Hezbollah actually still needs this Christian and presidential coverage that their ally has assured him for the past few years. Especially after Bkerke broke up with the party. At the same time, it needs the President of the Republic to float in the grassroots, and the movement is one of them. Just as the decline in the popularity of the national movement in the Christian street is a fact and not an interpretation, the current needs a new push of impudence to re-inflate its internal bases. And fighting the Lebanese Forces is not enough on its own and does not pay off overall. Rather, a speech under a loose constitutional title that rejects the uniqueness of any party in a ministry does not harm the party as long as the key to the composition is still in its pocket, while the Aouni are gathered under the mantle of Aoun and the chief. of the National Movement. How is the case and the objective, a ministry that has joined the Amal Movement, which the Aounists accuse of being “the tip of the iceberg of corruption”.
Hizbullah does not hurt the words of the Aoun and Bassil movement, and they meet to neutralize the party in terms of sending the harshest message to President Nabih Berri, and thus the two parties will regain their popularity, which they need after months of inevitable withdrawal under the weight of the demonstrations and then the explosion of the port and the stumble of the government. The party knows perfectly well that Aoun has to face any external pressure, and generally chooses to back down from such pressures. Bassil’s position on the US threat to impose sanctions on him makes it increasingly necessary for him to turn around corners, giving “mixed” messages in many directions, to assure Americans that he is not giving the party what it wants. and that it respects the constitution (which it recently violated when making inquiries related to the formation of the government), AND it sends a message to France that it is joining Hezbollah with its initiative, unlike other powers that obstruct authorship.
Aoun withdrew from his speech the gloss of the position of the Maronite Patriarch, Mar Beshara Boutros al-Rahi, diverted attention from him, and regained the initiative to impose his own rhythm on the songwriting process, even though the matter required his agreement that the more numerous Christian sects would not obtain sovereign portfolios, at a precise moment in relation to these sects and a crisis. His presence at the trial. Aoun gave Hezbollah more space in the formation of the government, returning things to zero point, because this means at the present time a stagnant government, awaiting the conclusion of the electoral battle of the United States and the relationship of the new administration with Iran. This presupposes the normalization of the resigned government, whose conduct at the present time may be the best available political option, regardless of bad economic and financial factors.
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