Morocco after normalization … a return to the Gulf embrace after a “summer cloud”

After dawn on June 5, 2017, citizens and residents of the State of Qatar flocked in search of shops, and supplies were about to run out, after their neighbors closed their land, sea and air ports. At that time, Morocco was quick to send planes loaded with aid to the small Gulf state, which formed a point in the sea of ​​disputes between the Kingdom of Morocco on the one hand and the Emirates and Saudi Arabia on the other. However, recent events on the scene indicate that these tensions are diminishing.

At the beginning of last November, the United Arab Emirates became the first Arab country to open a diplomatic mission in Laayoune, the largest city in Western Sahara, which is under the control of Rabat, in support of Morocco after the Front Polisario will announce the resumption of its armed conflict.

Almost a month after this step, Israel and Morocco agreed to normalize relations in an agreement concluded with the help of the United States, such that the Kingdom would join the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan in the implementation of agreements with Israel.

As part of this agreement, US President Donald Trump agreed to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory of Western Sahara, in a shift to a decades-long US policy.

Justice and development “in danger”
After the normalization agreement, the Moroccan government is subject to criticism from its loyalists abroad. The government is led by the Justice and Development Party, which is seen by some as the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Morocco, but whose leaders deny their ties to it.

The party has been at the helm of the government since 2011, when King Muhammad resigned some powers to avoid the effects of the “Arab Spring” protests, which led to a contrasting position between Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, which led the war against Islamists in the region.

Tarek Atlati, director of the Moroccan Center for Strategic Research and Studies, believes, in an interview with Al-Hurra, that the Brotherhood’s global organization is currently in a real crisis, not just from the party, due to the normalization agreement with Israel .

In the same context, Rachid Lazraq, professor of law and political science at the Ibn Tufail University of Morocco, said that the Justice and Development Party is going through a serious crisis but is able to contain it, due to the disagreement between the pragmatic wings and the bidder within of the party in terms of normalization.

And Lazraq believes that the party will eventually gain “the religious approval of the group – which has always used religion – to normalize,” thus securing the electoral bloc that votes for religion in elections scheduled for next year.

‘Summer cloud’
Despite this, Hassan Subaihi, an Emirati academic and political analyst, believes that the next phase between the United Arab Emirates and Morocco will witness a strengthening of relations, after the crisis between them reached a reduction in the diplomatic level and the withdrawal from the ambassadors of Abu Dhabi and Rabat.

Emirati-Moroccan relations had witnessed tensions in the context of Rabat’s position on the boycott imposed by the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt) on Qatar, the dispute over the conflict in Libya and the intervention from Abu Dhabi to try to return Israeli tourists who were stranded in Morocco, after air traffic stopped due to the Corona pandemic. Without consulting Rabat, last March.

But Al-Subaihi said: “Relations between the two sides have returned and strengthened more than before, and it was clear to everyone of its utmost importance.”

He added to the Al-Hurra website that “noble attitudes arise at the right time and in crises, and Morocco has gone through a challenge represented in the recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, which the United Arab Emirates immediately supported. “.

Al-Subaihi described the crisis in the two countries as a “summer cloud”, saying: “The relations established by Sheikh Zayed and King Hassan II” remain, to which Lazraq agreed, saying: “The relations of Morocco with the Gulf states are stable, as it is a relationship between the ruling families, especially with the United Arab Emirates. ” “.

“Saudi understanding”
At the beginning of last year, the Saudi channel “Al-Arabiya” aired a report questioning the Moroccan character of Western Sahara, which contradicted Riyadh’s position in favor of Morocco on this issue, so Rabat summoned his ambassador to Riyadh to query.

Following this report, Morocco withdrew from the Saudi-led Arab coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, saying it was “committed to the international political settlement initiative.”

The president of the Council for Arab International Relations (Carter), Tariq Al Sheikhan Al-Shammari, described the dispute with Saudi Arabia as a “misunderstanding”, referring to “Morocco’s withdrawal from the coalition and its neutral stance on the Gulf crisis. and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi “.

However, he added on the Al-Hurra website, “Morocco’s position must be seen in the context of its enthusiasm for its relations with the West and to distance itself from what is happening.”

He stressed that Rabat has close relations with Europe and has reservations on some issues because of that. He said, “I think Saudi Arabia gets it.”

“The First Al-Tabteena”
Regarding the UAE’s efforts to put Morocco on the standardization train, Al-Subaihi said Abu Dhabi “left the Arabs the freedom to choose, and did not push or pressure any country,” but added: ” The United Arab Emirates now have a great Arab and international weight, and this always makes it easier for them to attract Arab countries. “

Sobaihi agrees with what analysts and politicians have said that the Israel-Morocco deal is just one step to reopen the representative office between the two parties after its closure in 2002.

Sobhi said that Morocco’s relationship with Israel precedes recent normalization agreements. “In fact, Morocco was the first to be imprinted with Israel by the Arabs,” he said.

He attributed Morocco’s delay in joining the Arab countries that agreed to normalize relations with Israel to “interests”, saying: “What governs the relationship between countries are interests that include the American recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara.” .

He continued: “The US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara will strengthen normalization between Morocco and Israel. Public interests lead to strengthening relations and commitment to the agreements, and this is what happened in the agreement with Morocco.” .

In this context, Lazraq says that Morocco’s relationship with Israel exceeds the support of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia for Moroccan archives in exchange for normalization, referring to “Moroccan Jews, who are children of the Moroccan community within Israel, considering that the Moroccan monarch is the Commander of the Faithful, and the connection of the Principality of the Faithful with the Islamic and Jewish religions. “

He explained that Morocco considers its large Jewish community within Israel under royal patronage, noting that “Moroccan nationality is not lost,” which keeps around one million Jews of Moroccan origin living in Israel while preserving their Moroccan nationality, and therefore hence a special relationship emerged between Morocco and Israel.

Where is Qatar?
Morocco’s return to the Saudi-Emirati alliance raises questions about Qatar’s position, despite the leak of news about a close reconciliation in the Gulf, but Subaihi does not believe Morocco will be far from the Riyadh-Abu Dhabi alliance until let him return to it, saying: “The Kingdom was with Qatar because of the interests and the great relations between them.” .

He added: “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates knew perfectly well that Morocco would discover that Qatar is not the one that determines the future of the region. This was proven by the evidence when Rabat needed to support and support a solution to the problem of the Sahara, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were ready. “

While Lazraq said: “The Gulf in general has always been on the side of Morocco, which has fulfilled this reciprocity. As for the Gulf crisis, it had repercussions in Morocco, which preferred to be at the same distance from the two parties.”

Lazraq believes that Morocco’s position on the Gulf crisis has not changed, despite the recent notable rapprochement between this country and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, saying: “Rabat is clear about the need to resolve differences in order to face the challenges. that the region is currently experiencing, especially Iran. ” Morocco is likely to play a mediating role in this crisis.

Al-Shammari says: “Morocco did not take Qatar into account upon its return to the Saudi-Emirati alliance, as it has historical relations with the two countries.”

He added: “This tripartite alliance is not directed at Qatar, but it does not console him.” While Qatari political analyst Abdullah Al-Wahin does not see a change in Morocco’s relations with Qatar or other Gulf countries.

He ruled out that the normalization agreement would have any impact on Rabat’s rapprochement with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, saying: “The main country of this quadripartite alliance, which is Saudi Arabia, has not normalized its relations with Israel.”

Israeli news reports stated that “Riyadh had a role in pushing for an agreement between Israel and Morocco” and that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, was a key party in negotiations with the Moroccan King Mohammed VI on the resumption of relations with Israel.