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After more than 40 days have passed since Lebanese President Michel Aoun assigned former Prime Minister Saad Hariri to form a new government, with no success so far, it appears that Macron’s agent has gathered to wait, which led to him to launch a threat to the political class in Lebanon that they will not provide any aid to Lebanon. Before forming a new government and making reforms. The French president’s remarks came on the sidelines of the opening of a second international conference in support of Lebanon four months after the Beirut port bombing, and at a time when differences between Lebanese officials continued..
French President Emmanuel Macron and United Nations Secretary General António Guterres presided over the Second International Conference to Help and Support Beirut and the Lebanese People, which was held via video technology last night, Wednesday (December 2, 2020), with the participation of about 30 heads of state, government and ministers, as well as international organizations, multilateral donors, non-governmental organizations and representatives of Lebanese civil society.
Threats from the French presidency to stop aid and financial support and demand reforms did not come out of nowhere, as International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva said Wednesday that the Fund is committed to helping Lebanon implement the reforms are needed, but the country still needs a coherent financial framework and a reliable strategy to rehabilitate its banking sector.
The need for international pressure
Lebanese affairs expert Jasem Ajaka, professor of economics at Lebanese University, testified on Al-Mashaya news program DW Arab: “Lebanon alone would have managed to form the government and implement the necessary reforms if the situation were normal, but with the presence of a faltering political class, consensus efforts have failed, demonstrating the importance of external pressure on the existing political class in Lebanon to implement the promised reforms. And the formation of a consensus government“.
Ajaka added that the importance of this “French warning” to stop the subsidies comes with the erosion of the Lebanese Central Bank’s cash reserves and the deterioration of the economic situation..
Lebanese President Michel Aoun renewed the call to the international community during the second international conference “to help Lebanon and not abandon it and the wealth it represents for humanity, stressing that the process of liberation of the Lebanese state from the system of political corruption will continue, economic and administrative ”. By adopting a standard that applies to all political forces. ” He said: “ Lebanon is currently negotiating with the World Bank a loan of $ 246 million for the Social Safety Net and Emergency Crisis project, ” in the hope of obtaining urgent approval from the World Bank Board of Directors, as reported the news agency. French.
Hariri announced his desire to form a new government and lift Lebanon out of the crisis. Will he survive in that? Photo from file
The reasons for Hariri’s failure
The Lebanese daily An-Nahar reflected in an article entitled “What solution between the ideal government and the quota government? The lack of government formation is the result of differences between Hariri and rival political parties to impose different points of view within the expected formation “. According to the Lebanese newspaper, the direction that Hariri insists on the formation of a government of names that are not affiliated with political parties, so that it can inspire confidence in the Lebanese interior, while some insist on an independent technocratic government. That he was pressured by Hariri to be a disciplined and practical task force, which may fail Hariri’s efforts to form the government.
For his part, the expert on Lebanese affairs, Hassan Makled, believes that the DW Arabia evening newscast: Among the reasons for the failure of the government formation is that the United States did not support the French step as required, which led to the existence of a margin of time for the political parties in Lebanon to be able to benefit from lost time. In order to achieve interests, and contributed to the deterioration of the situation in Lebanon, as he said.
In conjunction with the efforts to form a government and the positive climate that the authority parties are trying to sow, public anger prevails over the method adopted to manage the crisis and distribute quotas.
Activists believe that the political system in Lebanon has once again become prominent through its understandings and the sharing of sites and ministries, while Lebanon is witnessing the largest economic collapse in its history due to high rates of poverty and unemployment. .
Expected scenarios
Last Tuesday, the World Bank warned that the severe economic crisis in Lebanon has made the economy vulnerable to a “grueling recession”, describing it as “intentional” with the failure of authorities to contain the collapse, calling for the formation of a government to rapidly implement a comprehensive reform program.
In a statement, President Aoun said: “The international community can provide basic assistance to Lebanon in this context, through the means available to the United Nations and the European Union, in terms of combating the theft of public funds and tracking transfers. illegal capital abroad “..
He noted: “The many tragedies that befell Lebanon, and that the Lebanese face today, exceed their ability and capacity to bear, as the economic hardships the country is going through have burdened their shoulders, affected their savings and jobs. and they have threatened the future of their children. ” As published by the German news agency.
The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, close to “Hezbollah”, confirmed that French President Emmanuel Macron had failed to hold “the second international conference in support of Beirut and the Lebanese people with the presence of a new government, as expected.” The Lebanese daily quoted Le Figaro newspaper on the eve of the conference that the French initiative had reached a dead end, sparking the frustration of Macron, who visited Lebanon twice to advance the political process..
The expert, Ajaka, confirmed that the political forces in Lebanon are stagnating because they are pinning hope on the next US president, George Biden, of whom some hope to handle the Lebanese dossier differently than the Trump administration, which imposed financial sanctions. to Lebanon in order to weaken Hezbollah’s authority in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese affairs expert.
In a country full of parties and under a power-sharing system, Hariri’s efforts to form a consensual government and implement the necessary reforms may fail, without stronger international intervention, especially from the United States of America, which may represent a hope for the long awaited Lebanese people..
Author: Alaa Jumaa
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