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Beirut – Raya Shartouni: On Friday, Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri began consultations with national political forces to form his government.
And Hariri had obtained during the parliamentary consultations session 65 votes out of 118, while 53 deputies did not name any other person and two were absent from the consultations.
And amid the harsh political and economic conditions looming over the country, all possibilities remain, especially in regards to the extent to which the president in charge of the success of this mission can lift Lebanon out of the crises that threaten it. afflict.
Furthermore, the most difficult obstacle remains, resolving disputes between political parties, especially since each group seeks to guarantee their participation in the future government.
Observers described that the issue of forming the Hariri-led government is not easy, especially as it will face internal and external obstacles at the same time.
During a press conference in the capital, Beirut, after he was assigned to form the government, Hariri said that he would form a government of non-partisan specialists as soon as possible.
** The equation is complicated
Lebanese writer and political analyst Tony Abi Negm told Anadolu Agency that “the current problem in forming the government is to satisfy Hezbollah and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil.”
Abi Negm considered that “if Hariri is able to satisfy them, he will not be able to carry out reforms and he will not be able to get aid”, describing the equation as complicated.
And he added: “If the government is formed with the coverage of Hezbollah, there will be no help, neither from the IMF nor from Arab aid.”
And he continued: “Hariri faces two options, or to form a government by consensus as everyone promised, and to be able to do it by consensus with the interior, the doors are closed to the outside, especially because he will not be able to form a government without Hezbollah and without the approval. of the President of the Republic “.
He added: “The issues are thorny and not easy, especially given that the scenario has regional and international complications that stem from the US presidential elections and which lead to conflicts in the region and Arab-Israeli normalization.”
He concluded by saying: “All these tensions are taking place, plus Lebanon has become a tester because of Hezbollah and its weapons, and its main base.”
Recently, protests were held in Lebanon, calling for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 to hand over Hezbollah weapons.
It is noteworthy that “Hezbollah” possesses advanced weapons and missiles, which has created a dispute between the Lebanese parties between those who support the pretext of “confronting Israel” and those who consider it an illegal weapon, and demands that the decision to war and peace is restricted solely to the hands of the state.
The group also controls the Lebanese political decision, so the state knows its right from its left only through its dictates, while the economy collapses for its position on the sanctions regulations of the United States and Europe, accusing it of supporting corruption, money laundering and smuggling operations.
Regional and international voices are calling for the need to disarm “Hezbollah”, due to the behavior of the party involved in various countries in conflict in the region.
Internal punishments
For his part, the writer and political analyst Johnny Mounir considered that “despite today’s positive occurrence and the American and French signals towards the prime minister, there are very great internal obstacles and complications will appear in the coming days.”
Despite the positivity that is taking place today and the American and French signals towards the prime minister, there are very great internal obstacles, and complications will appear in the coming days.
Mounir pointed out these complications, saying: “The issues centered between Basil and Hariri are about names, bags and who will be in government.”
He continued: “It is clear that Basil said he wants a techno-political government (specialists and politicians) and Hariri technocrats (only specialists) and here is the problem.”
Al-Hariri knows perfectly how to walk
As for the leader of the Future Movement, Mustafa Alloush, he told Anadolu Agency: “There may be obstacles, but Prime Minister Hariri is fully aware of how he is proceeding in this regard.”
Alloush added that the designated prime minister “will try to overcome obstacles and the blocs that appointed him will help him form the government,” without details.
** hard way
For his part, writer and political analyst Tony Paul said: “It is clear that the Shiite duo insisted on appointing the Minister of Finance and keeping the seat for him, and so this matter will apply to the rest of the political forces, who will follow the same approach. “
He added: “The promises made by Hariri to form a government of specialists are unlikely, and as a result of this situation there is a difficult and arduous road ahead.”
He continued: “And the President of the Republic hinted in his last speech that writing will not be easy, especially because the latter wants to guarantee his participation and guarantee the participation of the Free Patriotic Movement.”
On the eve of the parliamentary consultations to appoint Hariri, Aoun addressed MPs in a speech and said: “I hope you will think carefully about the effects of the mandate on authorship and on reform projects and international bailout initiatives, because the current deteriorating situation cannot continue after today. “
Aoun added at the time: “Today, I am obliged to assign and then participate in writing, in accordance with the provisions of the constitution. Will the person responsible for the commission and authorship be obliged to address the corruption sites and launch the workshop on reform?”
“We do not forget,” said the writer Paul, “the only positive factor is the sword of the sanctions imposed on Hezbollah and its allies, and avoiding that (these sanctions) may be conditional on facilitating the government’s mission.”
He concluded by saying: “Because it seems that the international powers are aiming to have a government for a period of 6 months in Lebanon to manage the crisis temporarily.”
Accused of providing material support to “Hezbollah” and “participating in acts of corruption”, the US Treasury Department announced, in early September, that it had “blacklisted” former Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil and the former Lebanese Minister of Works Yusef Fenianos.
** Obstacles will not impede government formation
Political analyst and writer Ghassan Hajjar explained that Hariri will face obstacles during the government formation process, saying: “It is true that there are obstacles, but they will not impede the formation process.”
Hajjar added: “Today, the international pressure on Lebanon is great and neither party was ready to move towards the collapse of the country, and neither party would be willing to take responsibility for that.”
He added that “the obstacles will not prevent the formation of the government and Hariri is aware of the political distribution in the country.”
He stressed that “Hariri will negotiate with the parties at home to get the best possible exit for the government, and there are practically no partisan faces in the future government.”
He believed that “the US sanctions against Hezbollah will not affect the government formation process, especially since it is not tied to a specific date or time,” and noted that “the sanctions will continue to be a pressure card on the party.”
And on whether the domestic parties will wait for the US elections to begin to facilitate the formation process, he said: “This matter is illogical. In practice, if the US administration changes, it will not immediately assume its mission and will begin to work on its archives. “.
In recent weeks, conversations have emerged in Lebanon claiming that there are some political parties at home awaiting the US presidential elections scheduled for November 3 (as they will determine the future of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, which in turn has an impact on those matches).
No possibility of forming a technocratic government
In turn, the political writer opposed to Hezbollah, Ali Al-Amin, explained that “there are doubts about the extent of Hariri’s ability to form a government under the proposed terms, knowing that Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement insist that they have a presence. in government”.
And the secretary added: “Within the existing balances, I do not see an opportunity for Prime Minister Hariri to form a technocratic government that does not represent the political parties or the main parliamentary blocs.”
He stressed that “the only possibility is for Hariri to accept the requirements of these forces and to form a government to be convened by the internal parties.”
And he considered that “the matter will remain pending, since some refer to the issue of anticipating the result of the US elections and the subsequent results that may lead to the regional level.”
He concluded by saying: “The government situation today reflects the lack of real responsibility of the political parties, which insist on reproducing the crises and the quota system that led the country to its path.”
Hariri returns to the head of the Lebanese government, following the apology of the former prime minister-designate, Mustafa Adib, on September 26, for the failure of his mission to form a government following the bombing of the port of Beirut on August 4.
This is the fourth time that Hariri has led the Lebanese government, having assumed the first in 2009, then the second in 2016, before his third government collapsed in 2019.
The third Hariri government submitted its resignation on October 29, 2019, under pressure from popular protests demanding economic and political reforms, to be succeeded by Hassan Diab, whose government resigned 10 days after the Beirut port explosion.
Lebanon has been suffering, for months, an economic crisis that is the worst since the end of the civil war (1975-1990), in addition to severe political polarization, in a scenario in which the interests of regional and western countries collide .
(Anatolia)
