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The Lebanese economy will experience one of the biggest economic recessions in the region this year.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast that the Lebanese economy will witness one of the biggest economic recessions in the region this year, at 25 percent.
And he warned that “the worst-case dangers are expected to be great, especially given the recent increases in Covid-19 cases in many countries around the world that have reopened.”
Iran, for example, recorded its highest daily death toll from the virus last week. Its economy contracted 6.5 percent last year and is expected to contract another 5 percent this year. However, the IMF predicted that “the Iranian economy will recover by 3.2 percent next year, in part due to the future government’s ability to handle the virus crisis, which it has struggled with so far.”
On the other hand, the Fund predicted that “rich oil exporters in the Middle East will see their economies shrink 6.6 percent in 2020. But the Gulf states are likely to witness an economic growth rate of 2.3 percent next year. “
He based his forecasts on “assumptions that the average price of oil reached $ 41.69 per barrel in 2020, and that it will rise to $ 46.70 in 2021.
The IMF revised its grim estimate of the economic contraction in Saudi Arabia from 6.8 percent to 5.4 percent, as it is one of the world’s largest oil producers and one of the 20 largest economies. The kingdom took a bold step this year by trying to increase revenue by raising the value-added tax three times to 15 percent and increasing tariffs.
Egypt was the only different country in the region, registering a modest 3.5% growth this year after growing more than 5% annually for the past two years, helped by lower energy prices as an oil importer. . However, Egypt continues to face challenges with its huge population and tourism receipts remain stagnant.
Meanwhile, other oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, such as the United Arab Emirates, will experience an economic contraction of more than 6% this year, while Oman’s economy is expected to contract by 10%. The fund said Iraq is facing a 12% recession.
The World Bank estimated that the epidemic has caused between 88 and 114 million people to fall into extreme poverty, which is defined as living on less than $ 1.90 a day.
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