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The president of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, did not change his habits, so he freed many positions and distributed them on various axes and fronts, including blame and reproach, and some of anxiety and fear, and some of them warnings of total devastation. Jumblatt’s words deserve a pause in many topics and archives, but the most important thing is that despite all the calamities and afflictions that we live in Lebanon, what he said to the point that “anyone from any sect thinks of an adventure military is crazy, “which raised many questions. And the comments and analysis, especially since the problems that are pressing Lebanon today acquire an economic and financial character, but it was reflected in the political situation and began to knock on the doors of security stability. In addition, this talk recalled what French President Emmanuel Macron had said in the last press conference he dedicated to Lebanon and clearly indicated the presence of countries in the region willing to militarily confront Hezbollah in Lebanon. As soon as Jumblatt finished his warning, the accusing finger turned to the head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, of his willingness to conduct this catastrophic experiment on Lebanon as a whole, and not just against the party and forces.
As for the reason that led some to place Geagea in the dock on this issue, they attribute his familiarity with the Lebanese situation to several factors, the most prominent of which is that he has strong external ties with the Americans, the Saudis, and countries interested in undermining Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon by all means, including the military. They say that the main reason for the disagreement of Saad Hariri, head of the Future Movement, with Geagea, is the conviction of the former that the head of the forces had an important role in creating the great gap between Hariri and the kingdom. They themselves continue that one of the reasons is also that the forces were an armed militia and were considered the most organized at that time among the militias that were present on Lebanese soil, and therefore their former cadres are able to reactivate their activities when as necessary and as expeditiously as necessary, and they will also see to it that Christians surround them when problems and bloody disputes arise. With the other parties, especially the Shiite side.
Observers also offer another reason that led to the accusations against Geagea of preparing to embark on a “military adventure”, and that is that he is capable of reaching enough weapons to redraw new lines of contact in Lebanon, and is a fan of federalism. for a long time, and it stands to reason that it works To try to put it into practice, if possible.
In exchange for all this data, talks about such a military adventure remain mere plans or projects, unless you get an international green light, not just regionally. The Russians are now on the borders of Syria, and any developments Radical military in Lebanon will affect the situation there. And about Russian policy in the region as a whole. The Americans have also made strenuous efforts to reach a peace agreement between the Arab countries and Israel and to begin negotiations to demarcate the borders between Lebanon and its enemy in the south, and it will not be easy to persuade them to give up all this in for the sake of uncertain results.
Perhaps it is from this approach that Jumblatt described as “crazy” those who are preparing for this issue or who are preparing to ride this wave because the logical reading today is completely opposite to this trend, and it cannot be trusted. desire of some countries in the region to make their dreams come true, without the approval of the main countries, not to mention the difficulties. The process of fighting against Hezbollah and its allies, and the evils and disasters that will befall Lebanon as a whole, will have a worse outcome than the years of war that we live as Lebanese, so its end will also be formalized and will store huge accumulations of hate ready to burn under the ashes.
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