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In the small islands, the sons of Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa do not rule, and the eldest son, Hamad, is alone in the decision, surrounded by the powerful wing of the Khawalid, and the military elite that has produced the army, where the king he trained for the government and prepared his elite for three decades, when he was crown prince. From the time, marginalized from the real decision that the Prime Minister, Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa had. The prime minister has been removed from the decision since the king came to power in March 1999, in contrast to the wide influence of the western media on the man known for his militancy. The Prime Minister had no role in the transformation of Bahrain from a state to a kingdom in 2002, noting that this transformation is one of the most salient features of the Hamad government.
It is assumed, now, that the throne will pass from the king to his eldest son, the crown prince Salman, so that the latter choose the staff that helps him manage power. But I have always raised many questions about the great support that the king’s fourth son, Nasser, enjoys in exchange for his insistence on removing his crown prince from the military establishment, which has overwhelming influence in the country. At the defining moment in 2011, those questions became more apparent. At that time, I wrote many articles on “The Silenced Conflict: The Crown Prince’s Future in Bahrain” and asked why the king singled out Nasser and portrayed him as his father’s sword, while the crown prince was hiding from the scene , and various scenarios, not including the removal of the crown prince, were developed to avoid acute conflict. In the government apparatus, and the shame is in the region, but I assumed that the powers of the crown prince, if he were to win it, would be restricted by the influence of Nasser.
The potential dilemma facing the crown prince has already appeared in Abu Dhabi, where the government passed from the late Sheikh Zayed to the ruler of Abu Dhabi in the role, Khalifa, and his brother Mohammed bin Zayed, who was appointed crown prince in place of the son of Khalifa, and now he is the one who faces the administration of government affairs. His son is the crown prince. Consequently, “the option of a two-headed Bahraini kingdom or something like that was tried in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and it assured the ruling family of its cohesion, but it may not guarantee Salman the appointment of his son Isa in the mandate of the Covenant, “as I wrote in 2011.
The king’s renewed reverence for his son Nasser confirms the existence of a deliberate approach to enhancing his influence.
During the last years, the water flowed heavily under the bridge, we thought it changed the scene, but this belief is shaken again, so we return to the starting point; Since 2013, the crown prince seemed to regain influence, when he was appointed first deputy prime minister. It is noteworthy that the king indicated in his speech yesterday that the presidency of the Council of Ministers is entrusted to his uncle Khalifa bin Salman and his son, Crown Prince Salman. This is a signal broadcast for the first time, and perhaps this is another important topic in yesterday’s speech. However, the influence of the Crown Prince in the Council of Ministers does not solve the problem of his weakness in the country’s powerful military institution, where Nasser takes an effective position in it and heads the royal guard, and we know that the loyalty of the officers it can only be built through daily practice. The crown prince is criticized by powerful officers, who do not see him as worthy of the rank of field marshal, and see Nasser as more qualified on the military side.
The king worked to quell some of these concerns earlier this year as he intended to strengthen the Crown Prince’s presence in the army, by forming a supreme executive committee in the “Supreme Defense Council”, headed by the Crown Prince. I saw it as the first steps to be the eldest son of the king in the position of the military decision. My questions were left unanswered as to why he had been excluded from the military establishment for the past two decades. As long as the crown prince remains high in “defense”, Nasser will not be able to compete with his brother and form a competing center of power, since the party that dominates the army will be able to impose its decisions.
That reading is being shaken again and is being questioned, as if we were going back to the moment of 2011, when questions about the reasons for the continued promotion of the king of the position of his son Nasser increase. Not a few months had passed since the promotion to the post of Crown Prince in the army, until, in July 2020, Hamad made a remarkable decision by appointing Nasser as Secretary General of the “Supreme Defense Council”, and Abdullah bin Ahmed, husband of the daughter of the Minister of the Royal Court, Khalid bin Ahmed, current Commander of the Khawalid wing, Deputy Secretary General of the Supreme Defense Council. In doing so, Nasser and his allies, the Khawalid, are building a sustainable infiltration into the military establishment, led by Field Marshal Khalifa bin Ahmed, brother of the royal court minister. Nasser is the closest to this wing, compared to his half-brother, the Crown Prince.
The renewed and continued reverence shown by the king to his son, which he repeated yesterday, confirms the existence of a deliberate approach to consolidating Nasser’s influence. And if the king proceeds with the same behavior, then the chances of Nasser becoming a true center of power are set, which the next king, Salman, can only take into account. The province cannot play in favor of Nasser. He is married to the daughter of the ruler of Dubai, Mohammed bin Rashid, and perhaps Al Nahyan will not allow Al Maktoum to enter Bahrain.
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