Jordan and the normalization of the gulf: a dance on the strings of the Emiratis

Amman | At a time when the domestic political scene is completed with the royal insistence that parliamentary elections be held as they are (despite the sharp increase in the number of deaths and injuries from the emerging Corona virus, and the administrative confusion of the state as a consequence of the worsening health and economic situation), the state of withdrawal practiced by the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems representative. For King Abdullah II, since the announced normalization of the Gulf with Israel, on the way to the solution. The king visited Abu Dhabi last Tuesday without prior public agreements, to attend the tripartite summit (Wednesday) that brought him together with new typists from the Emirates and Bahrain. The Arab movement is the first after the US elections that it could impose another type of equation in the region.

The visiting Jordanian delegation was formed from what might be called the first constituency that brought together the court and intelligence services with the head of the executive authority (although it had not yet obtained the confidence of Parliament). Thus, Abdullah was accompanied by his former personal adviser, Bishr Al-Khasawneh, who was recently appointed Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who is also Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs, as well as Director of General Intelligence Ahmed Hosni Hatogai, while Crown Prince Hussein was absent from the first meeting. With typists from the Gulf.
The photos of the tripartite summit (with the participation of the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa) published, taking into account social distancing and the use of masks, did not say much, but the official headlines – as usual – were loose and brief . However, the absence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the Kingdom’s two direct neighbors, raised several questions at home, especially in light of the summit that coincided with the visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Tel Aviv, and his meeting with his Bahraini counterpart, Abdul Latif Al-Zayani. The only constant is that the Jordanian presence on the territory of the UAE, with a free participation, means a total acceptance of the last step of normalization that does not serve the interests of Amman from several angles.
Away from Manama, which does not constitute a political weight in the region, there is an urgent Jordanian question: Does Abu Dhabi work in the interest of Amman, or does it want to win the Jordanian sheep egg to precede Riyadh, and specifically to facilitate relations with Israel in the lands of the kingdom and connect with the Mediterranean? Whatever the answer, the agility of the UAE is not hidden in foreign policy compared to Saudi Arabia. Here is the Emirati ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al-Otaiba, as part of his participation in a meeting organized by the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, explaining the reason for the normalization: “The annexation would have provoked a very negative reaction. To Israel, it puts Jordan under pressure and forces the United States to defend an extremely unpopular decision in the region. It will risk all the progress that we have made in terms of opening up with Israel. “

The absence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt at the Abu Dhabi summit raised doubts within Jordan

The court knows how to read external signs and, therefore, will spare no effort to reach out to those who approach it, and this is the case of the Emirates that are regionally active, while Bahrain joins the choir in which Amman it has always played a security role since the outbreak of the Bahraini movement, as no one forgets the contribution of the Jordanian gendarmerie to Quench it. Abu Dhabi, which “secured” two kingdoms in the region, is openly toying with its own options outside of Riyadh (showing recent leaks over the UAE’s criticism of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman), as if it were trying to come out of association with him on more than one front, be it in war. On Yemen or the relationship with Israel or the countries of the Palestinian ring, and even on the Syrian issue, even the Qatari rivalry assigned to it. In the latter case, Amman’s position appears to be an impetus for rapprochement with Doha after being open to it and obtaining diplomatic representation.
Linked to all of this, the Palestinian Authority’s actions that boycotted its position on the “deal of the century” with the Jordanian position are more widely understood, and now it is moving away from cutting security coordination and working to restore the situation along the way. which was with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Ramallah’s move cannot be read far from what Amman is doing, with reference to a recent meeting that brought Safadi together with Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah to offer his condolences to top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat. . It is clear that the visit was more than a duty of condolence, as it was followed by the king’s congratulations to Abbas on the anniversary of “Palestinian independence” announced by Yasser Arafat following the decision to withdraw from Jordan and the occupied West Bank. in 1988.
On the corner, and despite the postponement of international military exercises in Jordan since the beginning of the year, the most important of which is “Eager Lion”, the Jordanian army formations are participating in the exercise “Saif Al-Arab” in Egypt, with presence also from Bahrain and Emirati. After days, it is clear that there is also a Saudi and Sudanese presence! In conclusion, Jordan keeps diplomatic options open, but needs to resolve the priorities of its alliances that are at the forefront of the economic situation and the related aid, grants and investment opportunities that Amman aspires to, either from Washington or from the Gulf capitals behind Tel Aviv.

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