Israeli estimates regarding the likely date of Iranian retaliation against Soleimani



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Two former Mossad chiefs and a former head of the National Security Council in Israel suggested that Iran would not attempt to avenge the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani before Joe Biden assumed the US presidency.

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Speaking to the Jerusalem Post, Shabtai Shavit, who headed the Mossad between 1989-1996, said that “the patience of the Iranians never ends” and that “we must bear in mind that they will respond, they will wait for an opportunity to strike a high-quality target.” .

He cited the example of the attacks on the Israeli Embassy and the Jewish Community Center in Argentina in 1992 and 1994.

Shavit considered that the assassination of Soleimani in January 2020, together with the assassination of the head of the Iranian military nuclear program, Mohsen Fikra Zadeh, in November, for example, is for Iran a “double blow to its military activity in the Middle East” of the that has not yet been recovered.

He added: “Some say that (the assassination policy) is useless because one of them is leaving and the other comes to replace him … But the level of talent behind (Soleimani) refutes this argument.”

Danny Yatom, who led Mossad from 1996 to 1998, agreed, describing Soleimani’s assassination as “a matter of strategic value.”

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Yatom added: “There are reports that Iran is looking for an opportunity to strike an Israeli target or an American target. I am not saying it is impossible … but they waited a whole year and failed to get revenge on one of Iran’s most important figures.” , adding that “this informs us about the weakness of the Quds Force.” And the Iranian Revolutionary Guard today after the loss of Soleimani. “

For his part, the former head of the National Security Council, Giora Island, said that Iran “has no interest today in resuming a large-scale confrontation with anyone, especially two weeks before the presidential transition in the United States.”

He added, “So I don’t think anything exciting will happen in the next few days or hours just because it’s the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.”

Eiland added: “But Iran feels that at some point, it will have to take revenge, if not against America, then against Israel or Israeli interests … They may prefer to do so after Biden comes to power, as Trump is unpredictable. “.

It should be noted that the inauguration ceremony of the president-elect of the United States, Joe Biden, will take place on the twentieth of this month.

Source: “The Jerusalem Post”



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