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It is not an exaggeration to think that the Middle East is breathing the impact of the American electoral campaigns. The journey is no longer easy for Donald Trump and the group that supported him, consisting primarily of evangelical Protestants and white fanatics. This coalition is extremely durable and consistent in ensuring that Trump remains in the White House.
However, the problem is that other electoral groups were on Trump’s side and are beginning to see a change in their positions.
The most prominent of these is the age group over the age of 60, who generally vote at a higher rate than others. These manufacturers are in the weakest position in the face of the Corona epidemic, horrified by the position of Trump, who prioritized the economy and not to protect the lives of people in the crown. The American president seemed terrified by the burning of his main power card in the battle for his renewal, which is the economic newspaper, because the figures indicate that Corona cut nearly 22 million jobs, bringing the unemployment rate to 14.7% in April, the highest rate in history. Since 1948
With it, the economic damage caused by Corona seemed to be the worst since the Great Depression, 6 months before the opening of the polls.
That is why the Trump administration has been quick to seek to open up US markets. USA, avoiding health risks.
This also led to a further electoral decline for Trump among white working-class women, as Trump had gained a great advantage in his ranks in the last election. This group of people is also affected by medical care and the protection of a healthy community. The situation, which heralds more difficulties, was summarized by the White House economic adviser, who said that it is true that the unemployment rate is the worst result since the Great Depression, but expectations point to alarming figures, since June may registering an unemployment rate of about 25%, and this indicates that the White House is working under pressure, and the Trump administration is seeking a victory aimed at attracting voters. The Middle East Plaza remains the one that could offer Trump many opportunities.
The American movement to withdraw 4 batteries of Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia, in addition to its crew of about 300 soldiers, and some combat aircraft: the Pentagon only put the step in the framework of routine and for maintenance, of course, that does not it was true. This is because the reduction in the military presence in Saudi Arabia comes a few months after Washington strengthened its military presence in Saudi Arabia to counter Iranian threats, and the withdrawal of the “Patriot” from Saudi Arabia coincided with the dispatch of Iraq-like batteries to protect US forces from attack. Iranian missile. Trump’s ambiguous response came to confirm the existence of a hidden American message to Saudi Arabia. In response to a question asked on this topic during a White House meeting, he replied, “I don’t want to talk about it now.”
A month ago, after the continuing decline in oil prices, which led to the closure of US oil companies, Republican Senator Bill Cassidy proposed the withdrawal of US forces from Saudi Arabia, with the aim of pressuring them to reduce its oil production. In fact, it was Washington that controlled Saudi oil and its prices.
At the same time, relations between the United States and Iran have witnessed improvements and relaxation in some of the files.
In Iraq, it is understood how to form a new government and extend Iraq’s exemption so that it can buy energy from Iran for a period of 120 days.
Washington and Tehran are also preparing to exchange two prisoners, Iranian scientist Cyrus Asfari, in exchange for former US soldier Michael White. This means that indirect negotiations completed this exchange.
The tweet from the leader of the Iranian Revolution opened the door to broad conclusions and jurisprudence, and this climate contributed to facilitating the opening of negotiations between Lebanon and the International Monetary Fund.
This new climate, the first of its kind since Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, led some to conclude that something new happened in the context of the negotiations between the United States and Iran, and that the President of the United States is on the move. Around the corner from owning a card to re-establish relations with Tehran for use in electoral campaigns.
However, informed American diplomatic circles disagree with this conclusion, as do Iranian sources.
US circles say the doors to indirect communication between Washington and Tehran are still in place, but that communication is one thing and negotiating the nuclear file is another. Therefore, informed sources suggest that the goal will be more pressure on the Gulf states to pressure them to cut oil production to restore high prices and save the US oil shale sector ahead of the election. No, more than that, these people believe that the negative atmosphere will not return soon, because the conditions to produce a favorable climate for negotiation may not be safe until after the US presidential elections, to which Iran is betting despite the difficult economic reality that is living due to sanctions. Therefore, the expectations of some people come to believe that war through war or alternative war will not be overlooked again and their indications are numerous.
Next Wednesday, the Secretary of State of the United States, Mike Pompeo, arrives in Israel, which is the day of the inauguration of Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz as replacement head and head of government.
It is noteworthy that Pompeo will meet with the head of the Mossad agency, and will discuss the timing of the implementation of the Israeli decision to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank next July, as well as the Iranian archive and the sanctions imposed, in addition to the situation in the Syrian arena in light of Israel’s discontent. From the US facilitation of the birth of the Iraqi government and the extension of the US exemption to Iraq to buy energy from Iran. On the other hand, Washington is not satisfied with China’s vast investments in Israel.
Washington anticipated Pompeo’s visit when speaking about a move by United States Secretary of Defense Mark Asper to withdraw US forces participating in the multinational force in Sinai. Israel is vehemently opposed to the measure, noting that the United States’ involvement amounts to about 400 soldiers out of a multiple force of approximately 1,100 soldiers.
It should be noted that Sinai has witnessed in recent years several attacks by terrorist groups against Egyptian security forces, while a secret Israeli report to the Foreign Ministry predicted that there would be security instability in Egypt and Jordan after Corona.
ISIS has also returned to its “vitality” in the region between Syria and Iraq, in what some considered to be extremist terrorist organizations as one of the most prominent parties to the alternative war in Iraq and Syria, especially since its previous major threat is already it does not exist, which was demonstrated by the attacks in terms of lack of professionalism. Its previous maximum capacity, its capabilities were mainly limited to roadside bombardment and light weapon attacks, and this appears to be what is needed.
But the troubling problem is that terrorist cells can spread quickly and without being able to control them.
About two weeks ago, Hezbollah arrested in Syria and near the Lebanese border an extremist terrorist cell that was targeting the city of Tripoli in Lebanon, with the aim of reviving new cells and causing explosions.
At a time when the Israeli media quoted a security official, who described him as high-ranking, that the situation in Lebanon lacks stability and that the situation will worsen due to bankruptcy, but added that it is not clear whether this deterioration will strengthen or weaken Hezbollah.
He also quoted Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi as saying he would put a new military strategy in the context of changes in the Middle East, followed by a change in combat regimes on several fronts.
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