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Rania Chattoura wrote in the agency “Akhbar Al-Youm”:
“The dollar exchange rate on the black market” … is the news that the Lebanese are waiting for, to calculate their money or wages … and in this light they determine their purchasing power, after the Lebanese pound collapsed and lost about 80% of its value, which automatically led to a significant increase in Consumer Prices.
Multiple prices!
This financial and monetary crisis and the attempt to find “patchwork solutions” led to the multiplication of the exchange rates of the US dollar, and its margin ranged from 1,500 Lebanese pounds as the official exchange rate (which is practically limited at the time of the prices of the three basic products: medicines, wheat and fuel), and enter the price in the parallel market. Or the black one that was trading today between 7570-7620 Lebanese pounds per dollar.
And between the official price and the black market, the figures multiplied:
The price of the dollar in the exchange houses (the purchase is at least 3850 and the sale is at most 3900),
– The price of withdrawals from banks (3000 – 3850 pounds)
– Electronic transfer price (3800)
– The price of the dollar according to the exchange application (3850 – 3900)
The dollar price of subsidized food products (in the range of 3,200 pounds per dollar)
– The price of the dollar for students who complete their education abroad in the academic year 2020-2021, it is almost agreed to fix it at 1515, as long as it does not exceed the ceiling of 10 thousand dollars.
Fund conditions
Faced with this multiplicity in exchange rates, and the unprecedented deterioration of purchasing power that it left behind, economist Walid Abu Sulaiman said that if the exchange rate is not unified within the terms of the International Monetary Fund, we will reach a big problem, that will perpetuate the chaos of cash, and therefore the lack of control. Monetary policy, in addition to more negative economic repercussions.
Abu Suleiman considered, through the agency “Akhbar Al-Youm”, that increasing, reducing or rationalizing subsidies to basic materials will drive a greater increase in the price of the dollar in exchange for a greater decrease in the price of the lira and, therefore Of course, purchasing power will erode.
Therefore, when the IMF establishes the basic conditions, including exchange rate bailout and unification, the main objective of the IMF is to start organizing monetary policy and then move towards gradual exchange rate stabilization at a specific ceiling. .
to import
In this context, Abu Suleiman considered that despite the disadvantages of the situation, it is possible to stop a “good point”, which is the contraction of the balance of payments deficit due to the reduction in the value of imports by 50 to 60%, so this value will soon reach 10 billion dollars, with reference to La Banque du Liban insuring between 6 and 7 billion of them, so there is a gap of 3 billion that is covered by the market black, pointing out that this gap will increase as the demand for the dollar rises, that is, reducing the deficit in the balance of payments gradually leads to the control of the currency.
High price …
In response to a question, Abu Suleiman stated that the price of 1500 LBP would not be returned. In fact, what is expected is to set the price at 5,000 or 6,000 LBP to achieve its liberalization in a later period.
What about the possibility of repricing at a certain ceiling? He said: The dollar amounts should be available in the Central Bank to intervene and pump them to the market in any need or crisis, noting here that the cost of fixing the price of the dollar is at the ceiling of 1500 LBP. It was very expensive for the Central Bank, and he added: The dollar can be restored to the price of 6000 pounds. But the condition is to undertake the necessary reforms respecting the reforms imposed by the International Monetary Fund.
And while emphasizing that these conditions are not a “spite” in Lebanon, but rather a summary of studies that were carried out in various countries of the world that were affected by financial, monetary and economic crises, Abu Suleiman concluded: In conclusion, the key is politics!
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