IMF expects economic recovery … and excludes Lebanon



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IMF expects economic recovery ... and excludes Lebanon

The Corona virus has pushed the countries of the Middle East into an economic recession this year, but some recovery is expected, including that the countries of the Middle East, with the exception of two countries, Lebanon and Oman, will experience a level of economic growth the next year, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund.

This comes as the International Monetary Fund estimates that the world economy will contract by 4.4% this year, the worst annual decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Long before the spread of the “Crown” around the world, countries in the Middle East faced problems ranging from low oil prices and slowing economic growth to corruption and high unemployment rates.

Lebanon

The International Monetary Fund expects the Lebanese economy to experience one of the largest economic recessions in the region this year, at 25%.

The epidemic only brought the country to the brink after a wave of anger at the government before the virus spread.

Lebanese protest against government corruption, foreign exchange shortages, hyperinflation, constant power outages, and growing poverty. The coin is down 70% compared to the end of last year as people struggle to buy commodities.

Last August, a devastating explosion in Beirut’s main port killed at least 180 people, injured more than 6,000 and destroyed entire neighborhoods. The explosion left hundreds of thousands of people homeless.

The International Monetary Fund warned that “the worst-case risks are expected to be great, especially given the recent spikes in Covid-19 cases in many countries around the world that have reopened.”

Iran

Iran, for example, recorded its highest daily death toll from the virus last week. Its economy contracted 6.5% last year and is expected to contract another 5% this year.

However, the International Monetary Fund expects Iran’s economy to recover by 3.2% next year, in part due to the future government’s ability to handle the virus crisis, which it has struggled through so far.

The Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund, Jihad Azour, said: “Iran was one of the first countries to become a hotbed of the Corona virus, and now we are in the third wave of the epidemic, especially to the light of an economy that has performed poorly due to US sanctions. “

Oil exporters

Meanwhile, the IMF said rich Middle East oil exporters are expected to see their economies shrink 6.6% in 2020.

However, the Gulf states are expected to witness an economic growth rate of 2.3% next year.

The Fund stated that it based its forecasts on assumptions that the average price of oil reached $ 41.69 a barrel in 2020, and that it will rise to $ 46.70 a barrel in 2021.

Saudi

The IMF revised its grim estimate of the economic contraction in Saudi Arabia from 6.8% to 5.4%, as it is one of the world’s largest oil producers and one of the 20 largest economies.

The kingdom took a bold step this year by trying to increase revenue by raising the value-added tax three times to 15% and increasing tariffs.

Egypt

Egypt was the only different country in the region, registering a modest 3.5% growth this year after growing more than 5% annually for the past two years, helped by lower energy prices as an oil importer. .

However, Egypt continues to face challenges with its huge population and tourism receipts remain stagnant.

Emirates and Iraq

Meanwhile, other Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries, such as the UAE, will experience an economic contraction of more than 6% this year, while Oman’s economy is expected to contract by 10%. The fund said Iraq is facing a 12% recession.

Poverty and working hours

The World Bank estimates that the pandemic has caused between 88 and 114 million people to fall into extreme poverty, which is defined as living on less than $ 1.90 a day.

For its part, the International Labor Organization reported that the working day in Arab countries decreased by 1.8% during the first quarter of 2020, equivalent to nearly one million full-time jobs.

That number jumped to 10.3% in the second quarter of the year, equivalent to about 6 million full-time jobs.



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