If the support stops, the situation will be catastrophic



[ad_1]

About 11 months ago the monetary financial collapse began and a series of accelerating factors accumulated on it, such as the spread of the Crown pandemic, the explosion of the port of Beirut and then the resignation of the government. During this period, the forces of power in Lebanon were preoccupied with an issue related to determining losses and the party that was supposed to bear them. Do you think this issue is still a priority for the next government whose ministerial statement was drawn up at the Pine Palace?

– The government needs the trust of the people to be able to pay attention to priorities. Confidence inside before outside. Lebanon’s policies over the past half century have produced a rentier economy that destroyed the country’s potential and organized a network of relationships between banks and ruling politicians on the basis of quotas, sectarianism and sectarianism. This system has failed economically, financially and socially, and Lebanon has become a looted country, although it is not a poor country. Therefore, the priority is that there should be no place for these rules in the formation of a government that must work quickly without forming committees and wasting time and paying attention to a set of basic issues. It must deal with the disastrous consequences of the Beirut port explosion in terms of accommodation and reconstruction, and face the impact of the Corona pandemic and the repercussions of the financial, monetary and banking collapse that resulted in a collapse of the exchange rate, inflation. prices and unemployment higher than 50% of the labor force, and poverty in more than 50% of the population. The scene is bleak, even if we don’t seek to paint a bleak picture.
Among the indirect priorities, the port of Beirut should be rehabilitated as soon as possible, given its contribution to the Lebanese economy. First, second and third electricity. These are priorities that should not be delayed.

The Central Bank of Lebanon has warned the government about the imminent depletion of its financial resources in foreign currency that it could use to support basic products and food. Do you think we have really reached the stage of canceling subsidies despite urgent social need amid the rising price of the dollar and the erosion of people’s incomes?
So far, we have speculated on the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves, but it seems that the announced figures are not far from reality. If we continue to use existing reserves, the bank may not be able to support imports of medicines, oil, medical supplies and wheat soon. This is a fact. If the subsidy stops, companies will tend to get the dollars they need to import from the parallel market, which means that an increase in the price of the dollar can be hell. So the poor class will not dream of daily sustenance. Therefore, the state must act quickly to protect the erosion of individual income and to preserve and raise the very low remaining purchasing power, otherwise we will witness a catastrophic situation in a politicized society. But any radical solution to the Lebanese problem falls into the basket of a radical solution between the United States and Iran.

Rumor has it that the only way to launch the economy is by creating a new banking system. Do you think the powers of authority realize the importance of this path based on the recognition of real losses, or are they trying to avoid this path in a desperate attempt to repair the current collapsed model?
The banking system in Lebanon is based on the idea of ​​”Bank of the East”. Lebanon has been the center of attention for many Arab investors and its wealthy who suffer from problems in the countries where they live. Also, when the dollar was falling in Lebanon, we were protecting the dollar in Lebanon, not the pound. We were giving very high interest rates and it turned out to be depositors’ money. The banking system was one hundred percent rentier. Do we need this volume from the banking sector? How can the new banking system attract investment? The political situation must first be investigated. People’s confidence in the banking system has greatly deteriorated and needs direct state intervention in this system, as happened in England and the United States and others that intervened after the 2008 crisis. We must move towards building a real economy.

* Dean of the Faculty of Business Administration at Al Maaref University

Subscribe to «News» on YouTube here

[ad_2]