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European diplomatic circles do not hesitate to express their fear of the great dangers that threaten the Lebanese entity as a result of the serious crises that almost suffocated it. What raises the level of fear in these circles, to panic, is the unlimited selfishness in the behavior of the ruling political class. Except for their corruption that drove the country to this depth, their murderous selfishness and vested interests in seizing power at any cost, even at the expense of the misery, hunger and displacement of the Lebanese, put Lebanon in the unknown . And French President Emmanuel Macron, who is preparing for his third visit to Lebanon in a few months, has expressed his contempt for a political class that is unparalleled in the world and perhaps throughout history, whose only concern is clinging to power, even at the cost of the misery of the Lebanese and the risks of the disappearance of Lebanon. .
Indeed, no one can understand how some of these officials are not ashamed to hold onto positions within the government, despite the fact that their lack of birth and the approaching moment of impact leave Lebanon facing existential risks.
This is because the Middle East is facing major changes and transformations that may lead Christians in Lebanon to pay the price, as happened in 1989, and perhaps more.
The world is concerned about the big issues in the Middle East, and in the coming months, there are three big quotas in the region: a fourth Israeli election is likely to be held within two years, which will make the president-elect’s administration Joe Biden is interested in ousting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And find him an alternative, capable of understanding him more. There are also presidential elections in Syria, which must be accompanied by the determination of the framework for the final settlement of the solution, with which this means mapping the internal influence in Syria. Finally, there will be the Iranian presidential elections next June, which will produce a president of the hard-line movement, most likely Qassem Soleimani’s aide, Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf.
And Iran, which suffered two painful blows, with the assassination of the exporting engineer of its revolution and later the architect of its nuclear program, has suffered and continues to suffer harsh sanctions for its economic situation.
However, the Iranians, who are known for their long patience, patience, and long breath, continue to bet on time, believing it works for the sake of strengthening their cards. Iran, realizing its position as a balancing factor between two Turkish and Israeli-Gulf axes, believes that Turkey has many major problems, but is closely watching the development of the situation in the Gulf, following the normalization steps with Israel. It may be that they are betting on the internal stability of the Arab countries that went to normalization, due to the lack of acceptance of a large Arab segment, which grew up in a culture of hostility towards Israel, this step.
Iran is betting that American allied countries in the Gulf have neither the desire nor the interest in a huge fire breaking out with Iran, because they are in danger of confrontation.
Likewise, Iran is capable of restoring phantom wars, through its regional network in the region, as it has managed to build its solid regional network with the Houthis in Yemen and “Hezbollah” in Lebanon and its extensions in the region, in addition to Syria. and Iraq. .
For example, Israel managed to curb Iran’s ability to build its own military bases in Syria, but was unable to avoid building a network of surface-to-surface missile systems, attack drones, and a host of military experts and allied organizations. In short, this means that Iran will take its time before returning to the revised nuclear deal, as requested by US President-elect Joe Biden.
From this angle, we must read the stumbling block of the government’s birth in Lebanon. Facilitating the formation requires paying “Hezbollah” prices, otherwise, time will be enough to destroy what remains of the Second Republic and force everyone to go to the founding conference, thus approving the triangle. This means that “Hezbollah” wants to recognize that its real influence in Lebanon is an essential aspect, which is to ensure the required political stability, but a price must be paid for that, and that it must be formally enshrined in the Lebanese constitution.
On the other hand, and after Biden’s victory, Europe began to work to define and draw up a common policy with Washington, especially with regard to the Middle East. Germany proposed a gradual plan, asking Biden to ease sanctions on Iran, but in parallel with Iran reducing its nuclear activities in a verifiable way.
Berlin shares Washington’s conviction that the nuclear deal alone should not be the sole objective of the negotiations. Germany says Iran supports the region’s forces in Yemen, Lebanon and elsewhere, and that this must change, in addition to reducing the Iranian missile program. This is what German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas meant when he said in an interview with Der Spiegel that an annex to the nuclear deal should be prepared.
However, Iran was eager to highlight its bad mood after the assassination of its chief scientist, and showed its anger as it criticized Europe, which promised too much and did little to implement, and that its resistance to Trump’s policy was weak. .
Tehran believes that the Biden administration is doomed to weakness and that it will reel under the weight of internal conflicts, which will confuse it about its foreign decisions.
During the last days a retreat was held at Harvard University, which brought together European and American experts at the request of their governments, but in an informal format, with the aim of developing a new strategy, based on defining cooperation between them on issues global. The understanding was based on three principles, based first on rebuilding trust between the United States and Europe, and second on a commitment to a common strategy to face global challenges, and third on making military capabilities, technological, political and economic a more effective force.
In the recommendations, the support and strengthening of the “NATO” alliance, seeks to contain the usurpation carried out by both China and Russia, and work to dissuade them, as well as nullify the wrong decision to withdraw US forces from Germany, and redistribute American forces in Europe.
And in Afghanistan, the politics of exit and entry together. He linked the troop reduction with concrete progress in intra-Afghan peace negotiations. But the most important thing is the agreement regarding Iran, since the understanding has been defined on the diplomatic solutions with Iran, not the military one, and the need to end Iran’s ambition to obtain nuclear weapons and the ballistic missile program. And that Washington should rejoin the negotiations with Iran, if the latter agrees to revert to all the restrictions of the agreement signed in 2015, stressing that the new agreement must be stronger, deeper and more achievable, while also addressing the ballistic missiles and holds together against the clutches of Iran. Regional in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that Iran will usher in the new American era by torpedoing the existing settlement in Iraq, which took place in the days of Trump and brought in Mustafa Al-Kazemi as prime minister, which Iran reluctantly agreed to.
In Lebanon, Iran will seek to gain explicit international recognition of its influence in the Lebanese state, and here comes the crisis of government formation as an excellent path in this direction.
In 1989, at the height of the “war of abolition” between General Michel Aoun and the “Lebanese forces”, and a few months after the end of the devastating “war of liberation” with the approval of the “Taif Agreement”, Aoun he was shocked by the urgent supplies of fuel and materials entering his region under Syrian patronage. . It may be thought at that time that Damascus was supporting him to eliminate the “forces”, and that he wanted to reopen a new page, but the reality is that Damascus, after touching an imbalance in the field equation in favor of the “forces” , wanted to prolong the duration of the battle, providing General Aoun with the required oxygen. Exhausting all the military might of the army and the “forces” alike, and secondly prolonging the destructive war, which will allow for an international understanding with Washington to dedicate Syria’s role throughout Lebanon in the later stage. This is what happened and it did lead to a complete Christian defeat and the transition to the Second Republic.
History is said to repeat itself, but according to different circumstances. Faith weakened learning the lessons of the painful past.
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