Hariri’s initiative did not translate into optimism

Indira Matar – Beirut –

In Lebanon, no real results have yet been obtained for the great “concession” made by former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, agreeing to exclude the Finance Ministry from the rotation and keep it for the Shiites “for once”. Despite the positive atmosphere yesterday, optimism remained very cautious, with fears that a new contract will hinder authorship whose source is foreign, as usual. Hariri’s initiative is being studied by Shiites and nothing has materialized, while the President of the Republic returned last night to mention his direct role in the formation of the government, while President Mustafa Adeeb highlighted that when he promised. to establish a government of specialists that satisfies all and works to implement the economic, financial and monetary reforms included in the French initiative, which all parties have agreed to.

So Hariri ingested poison, according to his description, but his attempt to facilitate the birth of the Salvation Government may fail, especially since saboteurs who used the “financial” linkage to disrupt the first one can resort to an alternative linkage, as they used in the passed the linking of the Sunni Consultative Meeting after dissolving the knot of Druze representation in the previous Hariri government. Hezbollah may renew its obstruction, especially after Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s speech yesterday to the United Nations, in which he said that the explosion in the port of Beirut was a consequence of the dominance of the Iranian-affiliated terrorist Hezbollah to make decisions in Lebanon by the force of arms, which caused the rupture of the constitutional institutions of the State, and that This weapon must be disarmed.

France, the owner of the big initiative, praised Hariri’s small initiative, saying that he had expressed his sense of responsibility and national interest and that his statement represented an opening that everyone should appreciate to establish a task government now. the same.

A shy “Shiite” welcome

On the other hand, all eyes remained on the Shiite duo to see if he would meet Hariri in the middle of the street or if he would raise the roofs to win more concessions. No official position deviated from the two that would decide the fate of the initiative. Their circles had shown a timid welcome to the initiative, as it was an advanced step, but it was not enough, considering that the idea of ​​handing over a list of 10 names from the Shiite community to take over the Ministry of Finance whenever Adeeb chose the more advanced name. However, he expressed reservations about including the initiative as a “cheat”, especially with regard to the phrase “one time” that Hariri insisted on. The duo’s circles indicated that the political aide to the Hezbollah secretary general, Hussein Khalil, would bring the notes on Hariri’s statement to President Aoun and inform him of them.

In context, some of those who met with President Nabih Berri conveyed their optimism about him, while sources reported that Berri welcomed Hariri’s statement and said he relies on it positively, stating that Berri said that a move would take place in the next few hours, and he responded to one of the representatives saying: “It is not a long time because what remains.” In us we carry ».

As for the president of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, who acquitted Berri of being suspended, saying he was under pressure (from Hezbollah), he tweeted on his Twitter account, saying: “The time has come to take yesterday’s newspaper and build on it and facilitate training away from narrow calculations. Every minute passes Not in the interest of Lebanon. Do not give more time to the current government of epidemics and disasters ”.

It is not surprising

Hariri’s “personal” initiative, as he described it, so as not to embarrass the club of former prime ministers, seemed at first glance to be rejected by his entourage and his allies rather than his opponents. Opposition political sources described Hariri’s move as a new concession that “did not surprise us.” He continues the downward path that marked his political career, despite his appendix to the phrase “for the last time.” Sources recalled that all the settlements Hariri made pay were exorbitant prices and were negatively affected, starting with the presidential settlement.

In the opinion of these sources, Hariri’s “offer” will not be limited to allocating funds to a Shiite, but will lead to more concessions, which will lead to the appointment of other Shiite ministers. This will whet the appetite of other parties to join ministries that they consider exclusive to them, or to appoint their representatives in the government, especially the team of the President of the Republic and the Free Patriotic Movement; In the end, we will face a modified version of the Hassan Diab government.

The President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, has repeatedly announced that he is adhering to the bag rotation, but his “acceptance” of the Shiite duo’s conditions will cost him as much as Hariri. Because submitting to the Hariri settlement means withdrawing in consequence of what was previously approved, and thus you will have two options: or approving the principle of rotation with the exception of the Ministry of Finance and here the Ministry of the Interior can claim (which will take the part of Hariri ), or it can demand the stabilization of the shares, that is, maintain «Foreign Affairs and Energy.

Based on these data, it does not appear that we are going to witness the rapid birth of the government, despite the paving of its roads to some extent. What is the position of the Americans in case of appointing a finance minister with the approval of Hezbollah, who stipulates that he will be excluded from any government formation? Can the Adib government go on a mission to save Lebanon economically and financially, without the American blessing?

He sought to change the formula

On the other hand, sources close to the Movement of the Future indicated that Hariri’s abdication occurred after a phone call with the French president. It is a proposal the French ambassador made in France, and he mentioned after a promise Hariri received from Macron that this concession would be accompanied by the rapid facilitation of loans from the Cedar conference. The “Future” circles considered that Hariri’s play reduced the obstruction team’s margin and sent the obstruction ball back to their court. His initiative, which Paris praised today, will help in training or expose the truth of everyone’s intentions.

A member of the political bureau of the “Future Movement”, former MP Mustafa Alloush, seemed pessimistic that this initiative would achieve any progress on the governmental path. He said: “The Hariri initiative is a nationwide attempt to present a way out of the impasse, but it appears that nothing has changed in the positions for various reasons.” “Maybe the Shiite duo and other parties want to go change the formula,” Alloush said.