Hariri wakes up to the shock of the “European initiative”

This afternoon, Prime Minister Saad Hariri will visit Baabda Palace. He would enter through the front door, to formalize the visit. You probably have an arrangement on hand, regardless of whether it is complete or not. There are two stories. The first confirms that it will present to the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, a de facto formation of 18 ministers, and the second indicates that it will be able to present some new names in addition to the names that it previously presented to the President of the Republic. Talking about the de facto formation practically confirms the refusal to consult with Michel Aoun about Christian names. Precisely for this reason, Hezbollah and Amal did not give Hariri any names. In fact, it seemed clear that Hezbollah would not release the names until Hariri agreed with the President of the Republic, because “it will not allow a monopoly on aid.”

However, in the Baabda Palace there is consolation in the fact that the designated president fulfills his constitutional duty, rather than the stalemate that characterized the last phase. The Hariri measure is supposed to open the constitutional door for the President of the Republic to discuss names and portfolios, in preparation for his signature on the authorship decree. Here, if cooperation between the two parties is not carried out to complete the team, the attempt will end with each party re-adhering to its terms.
On the other hand, and regardless of the expected result, Hariri’s measure is considered part of a Lebanese measure that anticipates the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron. How successful is this step? That awaits today’s meeting and what comes next. Likewise, the visit cannot be isolated from the meeting held today at the headquarters of the European Union, with the aim of crystallizing a European initiative that inherits the French initiative towards Lebanon.
It was previously reported among Hariri circles that this initiative emerges as the essence of the German-American coordination in the first place, treating the French initiative as incapable of meeting the requirements and conditions to support Lebanon. This initiative, in which the author sources trust to make a hole in the continuous stagnation, faces a fundamental dilemma, which is to consider that one of the drawbacks of the French initiative is that it did not deal firmly with either Hezbollah or Iran. , with which Paris opens many lines of communication. The US ambassador to Germany was previously the spearhead in pressuring him to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist. He will not be far from the new initiative, given that he is known for his extremism and extremism when dealing with the case of Iran and Hezbollah. But what added value can the new initiative bring? Informed sources confirm that any initiative that is related to the confrontation with Hezbollah will be doomed to failure beforehand. The French are aware that the sanctions against the two ministers, Ali Hassan Khalil and Yusef Fenianous, led to militancy with President-designate Mustafa Adib, and they realize that the imposition of sanctions on Minister Gebran Bassil contributed to the militancy. of the Free Patriotic Movement. Therefore, any initiative aimed at isolating Hezbollah will not suffer the same fate.

Hezbollah refuses to be singled out with Aoun: no names before agreeing with him

According to a diplomatic document that reached the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France, which had no alternative plan for Lebanon, was convinced that “the only plan left is to wait for the total collapse of Lebanon financially and economically, to force all the parties to sit together to consider what can be done in the next stage. ” Collapse. “This scenario was most likely compelling to many at home. But is the new initiative based on the same premise? If so, the presumption would be to exploit this collapse to achieve results that were not possible before, in politics before economics. If this initiative takes shape today, it may be the last attempt by the Trump administration to impose its vision of solutions in the region. This can be a guarantee that those affected will not respond to a scenario that the coalition German-American decided in advance to direct it against a group of Lebanese.

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