Prime Minister Saad Hariri seeks to enter Serail before the US elections. To be a prime minister strengthened with an integrated government and a media and political impulse that will place him in a position of the strongest that is outside of it, waiting for what the initiatives of any new administration will lead towards the Middle East, without jumping on him when arrangements are made. This does not mean that Washington is in a rush to write or pay attention to portfolio distribution. Only the Lebanese set their appointments according to the American calendar.
On the other hand, Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement are in no hurry to give Hariri what he wants, if he does not delay this arrival until after October 3, without implying that the party wants to exclude the designated president, but also looks at him out of Serail, without his own eyes. To him within her, linked to the results of the American elections. Hariri’s long-standing desire to return is known and has no interpretations, so it becomes necessary for Hariri to make further concessions, which the two sides insist on obtaining, and the president-designate is ready to present them, which will be seen. reflected in the distribution of shares and ministries and his abandonment of the list of conditions and demands that he had set for the excused President Mustafa. Writer. Whatever the party wants, it will receive, either to increase its participation or to guarantee the participation of its allies. At that time, Hariri will come out to justify his positions and justify giving the Finance Ministry just one time. So why does Hariri want to return to government at any cost, even though collapse is inevitable, as is the bankruptcy of the state and the Lebanese alike, and the impossibility of any form of bailout?
We can talk about Hariri’s desire and the national movement to return to government, given that it is the government of the last two years of President Michel Aoun’s mandate, and the possibility that it is the government that takes over the country after the presidential vacuum . However, this possibility did not push, for example, the Lebanese Forces to offer some settlement to enter it, preferring to remain outside it. Perhaps the forces this time are risking in the right way, since who will guarantee the survival of this government for two years, in parallel with the continuous internal collapse? And who awaits the ransom as long as the foundation of the settlement is built on the same falsehood on which the government settlements were built and the same economic and financial approaches? And what rescue could Hariri bring to Lebanon, when international political and practical realities indicate otherwise?
Politically, according to informed circles, Paris is closer to abandoning its initiative, which has practically nothing left. The only thing that worries France, at the moment, is to contribute to getting some aid, which has become a main concern, and among the priorities, such as administration and humanitarian and social institutions. France’s concern for its internal conditions is not the reason for its position, but rather that Lebanese politicians have proven unsuccessful in coming up with obvious solutions to the rescue, three months after the port explosion, which detonated the engines of French intervention. Washington, for its part, is interested in nothing more than the possibility of reaching an agreement between itself and his opponents in the region and Lebanon, to achieve their interests, beginning with the demarcation of the borders and ending with any regional understanding. This means that the US interest in the arrival of Hariri is completely equal to its interest in the arrival of President Hassan Diab, no more, no less. As for Saudi Arabia, in contrast to everything those around Hariri are trying to promote, it is still in its position to abandon meddling in Lebanon and specifically in the affairs of the prime minister.
Hariri was practically afraid of being out of government, because any supposed and expected collapse while out of Serail without a set of work, security, judiciary and authority means that he would be a prisoner of the middle house, without coverage, while his presence within it is reinforced with all his authoritarian tools. Especially those of security, it makes him an arbitrator who is free of any reaction that affects him as it affects others within the government.
A year ago, Hariri succumbed to street pressure, after the element of surprise confused him among the crowds that flocked to the Plaza de los Mártires, as well as the ruling class. However, after a year, the uprising broke up and some of those who participated in it participated in political and personal alignments. Hariri gave Hariri a dose of support to catch his breath and revitalize some of those around him, noting that the economic and financial situation has become more dangerous and severe than it was a year ago. All this coincides with the collapse of the health and life sector, and an absence, which has become a fact, for any serious attempt to rescue the situation, rather the opposite, as evidenced by the acrobatics of the Banque du Liban and its ruler in coordination with Hariri on the issue of the low price of the dollar and continuing the policy of bankruptcy of the state, selling its assets and the daily threat. Lifting subsidies and cutting electricity. And Hariri is supposed to be aware that the Lebanese’s slide into poverty and the deterioration of the situation will be reflected in the likely situation on the ground for the gradual collapse of security. As much as it benefits from the collapse of the Lebanese pound and the leaders of the popular neighborhoods, as it recently did, it will not be able to control the streets where poverty operates and its reflection is intensified in the largest segment of the Lebanese. This brings him back to the need to strengthen himself with the government palace, just as his partners in the government settlement are strengthened, at the stage of Lebanese awareness that they have become impoverished, and that there has been an integrated political and banking system since the decade. of 1990 that has brought them to this state.
