Hariri paid the Shiite duo in advance the bill for assigning the delivery, on his terms … More than half the government has been completed.

Hariri is engaged in a slow and gradual game of concessions
From a government of 14 ministers to a government of 20 ministers
The Shia duo’s true Sunni ally is Hariri
It is not hidden that Berri was the de facto father of the overthrow of the Diab government
The duo have already won their part in a government they have not yet insisted on forming.
Government formation is no longer in the hands of the president-designate
– The Shiite duo became a key partner in creating the government.

Nicolas Nassif –

The secrecy surrounding the efforts suggests Government formation with a different way of announcing it in the near futureIt doesn’t look like any of its predecessors. In fact, what is happening now is also different, and perhaps unprecedented. More than half of the government is already fulfilled Earlier, the mandate was given to Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

Although the first week of the assignment has not yet expired, despite two successive meetings between the President-designate Saad Hariri and the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, following the end of the author consultations, and this rarely occurs in Similar circumstances, there is no real data to indicate a close relationship between confidentiality and haste. Little was left of the mute, and the wheel, which had run out of speed before commissioning, mattered.

Everything that has been rumored about the formation of the government thus far refers to nothing that differs from the image of Prime Minister Hassan Diab’s government, except its boss. Like the predecessor, the successor is immersed in a slow and gradual game of concessions, after ensuring that the high ceiling conditions it set for its approval to head the government are suitable for allocation, not composition: de a government of 14 ministers to a government of 20, if not more, from specialized ministers only to specialized ministers. They are vaccinated by politicians or motivated by politicians, from a comprehensive rotation to a rotation that warns of exceptions, from the insistence that the designated president is the only one who has the competence to appoint ministers to their delivery, which is entrusted to the blocs. What has now become post-assignment characteristics is the closest thing to a cross between what Diab refused before forming his government and then grudgingly accepted, and what President-designate Mustafa Adeeb stipulated, and then he apologized for it. And the intelligence it suggests was that Hariri was able to return to Saraya for the fourth time, which is now not his own creation, but someone else’s.

This knowledge lies in a few facts:

First, he has more credit with the Shiite duo than his opponents and supporters expected. toThe two have not, since at least 2005, a Sunni leader in the same way that Hariri did over and over again.Despite the disappointments. It has been proven for a long time since the Doha Agreement that it is the only party capable of preventing Sunni-Shiite sedition, as much as it can manufacture it. He had succeeded before the events of May 7, 2008, and since then he has not tried again. Since Hariri’s arrival as prime minister in 2009, he has only caused a crisis with the Shiite duo, and with Hezbollah in particular, only twice:

First, in December 2010, due to the International Tribunal and false witnesses, which led to the overthrow of his government by the third +1, and the second in November 2017 when Riyadh forced Hariri to violently attack Hezbollah, condemn it and then resign. Therefore, the presence of Hariri in Saraya by the Shiite duo rarely worries, who has also realized – when they separate – that the attempt to compensate him will stumble, as happened with the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati in 2011 and the government of Diab in 2020, both exceptions in the bilateral relationship with the head of the Future Movement, who in turn did not cut the lines of dialogue with Hezbollah. God.

From that, the firm belief that the true Sunni ally of the Shiite duo is only Hariri, regardless of the other Sunni figures sitting on its banks. The duo never wanted the two, who were holding the game of political and military balance in the street and power, to give either of their allies a chance to assert a new Sunni successor to Hariri or act as if he were his rival.

Second, the role that the Speaker played in facilitating Hariri’s return as prime minister, starting from the pre-appointment stage, was not hidden from obtaining a decent number of votes. Nor is it hidden that Berri was the de facto father of the overthrow of the Diab government when he summoned him to appear before Parliament.

On the other hand, Hariri, who wanted to return to Saraya at any cost, made sure there was no way to do so before concluding his understanding with the Shiite duo about their ministerial involvement as the main condition for trusting him.. What he refused to give to the couple during Adeeb’s assignment, then partially lenient on him with the money bag, then he devoted himself to his request for Adeeb to resign after stating that what the prime minister-designate apologized for giving him The Shiite duo was easy for Hariri to do. Therefore, before their assignment, everyone made sure that the duo had already acquired their part in a government that they had not yet insisted on forming. This meant keeping the bag of money in his custody, as only he would appoint his ministers.

Before his assignment, Hariri completed half of his government

Third, it is unrealistic to believe that Hariri’s insistence, at least so far, to continue his boycott of the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, and his indifference as head of the largest parliamentary bloc, puts him out. from the negotiating table to form the government. The man makes himself present in advance through the President of the Republic, the other constitutional partner in the formation of the government and holder of the last signature of his decrees. However, what happened in Hariri’s current assignment is that he established a custom that was not previously noticeable in this way, although it was actually true and hidden by the veneer of constitutional authority shared by the President of the Republic and the President. designated.

This time, a government of more than half its ministers is forming. By himself, the Sunni part, so the Christian part returns to the President of the Republic.

The important thing about what has been circulating in recent days is that the only obstacle so far to the formation of the government is the so-called “Christian knot”, which is being negotiated directly with the president and indirectly with Basilio. What this means is the recognition of a new reality that is derived once again from the balance of forces on the ground, namely That government formation is no longer in the hands of the president-designate, as Sunni leaders like to believe – The president of the republic does not have constitutional authority either, but The Shiite duo became a key partner in creating the government.. Without him, Hariri would not have been able to get the votes for his assignment, even though Hezbollah hid behind the name of the assignment, which actually meant recommending the name in advance. The Shiite duo eventually managed to lay the groundwork for the Triangle to form a government.