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Weeks before the presidential elections in the United States, the leaders of the region provide support to their partner in Washington, who is seeking to win a second term, which is expected to continue burning bridges with Iran, and one of the manifestations of this support is to provide an unprecedented foothold for Israel in the rich Gulf.
Trump’s close relations with the Gulf states contrast with the tepid relationship that linked these oil-rich countries to his predecessor, Barack Obama, who, in concluding the deal with Iran on its nuclear dossier, raised the concerns of Saudi Arabia and his neighbors.
According to Randa Slim, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, the Trump administration has made the relationship between the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council “more people-centered and less institution-centric.”
With Trump lagging behind in opinion polls behind Joe Biden, who served as vice president of the Obama administration, the region may again be on the cusp of further change, especially as Biden, if he wins, is likely to revert to more positions traditional human rights issues that are subject to many violations. In several Gulf countries, according to non-governmental organizations, and arms agreements.
“The historic visit in May 2017 was the beginning of an exceptional relationship with a US president. It opened many doors,” a Gulf official told AFP, requesting anonymity.
“The decision-makers here logically want those doors to remain open, but they are not blindfolded. They are preparing for the other scenario,” he adds.
Warm welcome
He received a gold medal and addressed Muslim leaders, sparking a confrontation with Iran and avoiding the issue of human rights in the kingdom.
In the years that followed, his impulsive and unconventional strategy generated a precipitous chain of events that reshaped the regional landscape. It also made the Iranians tougher, cementing in them the conviction that “negotiations with their neighbors in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are weakening Iran, not strengthening it,” according to Salim.
Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, ordered the assassination of influential Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and reduced his country’s military role and presence in a region he believes has lost its strategy. historical.
These policies have found general good resonance in the Gulf, despite Trump’s lack of decisive action in major events, including the attacks on Aramco in 2019, for which he blamed Iran.
Ilham Fakhro, Senior Gulf Analyst at the International Crisis Group Institute, says: “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates share the perception that the Obama administration has abandoned its traditional allies in the Gulf.”
“Saudi Arabia has greatly improved its relations with the Trump administration, partly due to Washington’s decision to impose maximum pressure” on Iran and its oil sector, he adds.
With the election date approaching in November, Trump scored a major external victory by sponsoring a deal to normalize relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. The Kingdom of Bahrain, affected by Saudi policies, also signed a similar agreement to normalize relations.
Analysts saw the timing of the two deals without the Palestinian blessing, an attempt to provide Trump with a valuable foreign policy victory ahead of the election, despite the limited impact of this on the electoral process itself.
‘Dance hard’
Trump is also “more willing to ensure that arms sales to these countries advance and rapidly,” according to the expert. The Biden administration is unlikely to make such efforts to deliver arms to the Gulf states.
Figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute show that US arms sales to Saudi Arabia between 2017 and 2019 were the second highest sales to an administration after Bill Clinton between 1993 and 2000, indicating that the first Trump’s tenure can achieve record sales by counting 2020 sales.
Furthermore, the White House opposed the anti-Saudi decisions in Congress, in the context of its controversial war in Yemen and the assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
In his book, “Anger,” famous journalist Bob Woodward recounted that Trump told him in an interview in response to a question about the relationship of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who took office a few weeks after Trump’s visit to the Kingdom, with the murder of Khashoggi at his country’s consulate in Istanbul, I saved him. “
However, the Gulf region, especially Saudi Arabia, is preparing for the possibility of re-dealing with the democratic administration.
“As long as Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince, and if he assumes the throne in the next four years, relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, at best, will enter a state of deep stagnation and continue to suffer the consequences of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, “says Randa Salim.
The Biden administration is likely to try to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
“It will be difficult for the Saudis, but in the end they will have to live with it,” said James Dorsey, an expert on Middle East affairs.
He continued: “It will be a difficult dance.”
