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Raquel is old
Not all efforts and mediation succeeded in propagating the coming government before the holidays. A holiday that has already entered the country and the government to the point of paralysis, in the midst of increasingly serious crises that threaten chaos that no internal or external party can control. Is the external factor driving this tunnel? Or is it the only hope of the country in the external role in the face of the intransigence of the political parties at home, which has led and continues to lead to the failure of the government, the State and the entire country?
After Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri, after his thirteenth meeting yesterday with the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, since his assignment, a climate of optimism about the birth of the government, promising successive meetings with Aoun to leave with a government formula before Christmas, blew up this atmosphere yesterday, after the fourteenth meeting, speaking Noting that there are still “obvious complications”, stating that there should be a government after New Year’s Day. Referring to the role of politicians, he said that they should look at the situation in the country, which means, according to monitoring sources, that it is throwing the ball of obstruction at political parties, especially the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, confirming various political parties, in return. That “history” is in the hands of Hariri, since the birth of the government depends on his agreement with Aoun.
While some speak of Hariri being under external pressure to limit Aoun and Bassil’s participation in government, and that there is a US push to reduce Hezbollah’s influence in government, either through its government involvement or through his allies, especially those of Basil, diplomatic sources say: There is an exaggeration of the external role in terms of government formation, highlighting that the quota dispute, especially between Aoun and Hariri, is what delays the formation, while the outside wants a government in Lebanon but within the framework of the French initiative and without Hezbollah controlling it.
These diplomatic sources make it clear that Americans are now occupied with the domestic situation and the period between the end of President Donald Trump’s term and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, and therefore the American role in Lebanon during this stage will mainly support the French role. The Americans, despite their objection to Hezbollah, which is listed as a terrorist according to Washington, are not insisting that the party not be a final representative in government, as there is an existing reality, according to French President Emmanuel Macron, which is that Hezbollah is a Lebanese party with him. A broad popular and representative representation that cannot be canceled. Rather, it can work to limit their presence and influence in government, according to the same sources. Therefore, the negotiations between the Americans and the French are based on the extent to which the “party” is restricted. These well-versed sources on American affairs indicate that the concern of Americans in this context is that “Hezbollah” should not be in control of the government, and that this issue is discussed between the Americans and the French and not between the Americans and anyone else. official in Lebanon directly, knowing that the Americans are the biggest concern. In Lebanon, it is the demarcation of the maritime borders with Israel, which requires the presence of a government. Based on this, sources say that Washington can impose sanctions on Lebanese personalities and parties at the appropriate time, which may be ready in the first place, either to form the government or to push the demarcation negotiations according to its point of view. sight, or to restrain Hezbollah.
Noting that these sanctions are coordinated with the French, who now take over the Lebanese dossier, and even the French who deal with the government in Lebanon are the ones who could set the date for these sanctions.
Although it is not possible to form a government that does not satisfy the French and Americans, according to diplomatic sources, these sources indicate that this is not new in Lebanon, pointing out that the names of several ministers in the next government are in Paris and therefore with Americans. However, this does not mean that the authorization has been blocked from outside, the conditions of the French and Americans have been made known: a government that carries out the necessary reforms and is not controlled by Hezbollah. Other than that, authorship remains subject to the interior, and is now faltering due to the dispute over “ministerial quotas.”
While some link the government’s inability to see the light so far with the US policy towards Lebanon, which it imposed to besiege Hezbollah, by preventing the entry of the dollar into the country, which caused the current crisis to worsen, sources Diplomats confirm that this theory is not correct, and that there is no US blockade. Washington wants to prevent the entry of dollars into Lebanon to use the sanctions policy, like the sanctions it imposed on the Central Bank of Syria, so that it cannot negotiate in dollars or carry out any international transaction, thus avoiding the pumping of dollars, while expatriates alone pumped into Lebanon in 2019 about $ 7 billion. This year, they raised more than $ 4 billion.
These sources claim that the Americans and the French do not want the collapse of Lebanon, without this meaning that they are working to restore the prosperity and beacon of the Middle East to Lebanon. Rather, his equation is “neither collapse nor prosperity”, because his own interests are greatly affected in the event of a collapse of Lebanon. . The French speak and act on behalf of Europe, so how will they say to Europeans: “We failed”, and there are more than a million and a half “Muslim” refugees waiting for the ships to migrate to Europe, in light of European fear? to “Islamize the continent”, in addition to the fact that France does not have a foothold in the East? Half alone in Lebanon. As for Washington, it wants to demarcate the maritime borders, and if Lebanon collapses, who will sign the agreement, when it doesn’t have to be prosperous to sign?
Based on this, the Americans and the French say to officials in Lebanon: “Make reforms, so that they give you a little money so that the country can rise again, so that it does not collapse and get out of control, like it happened during the days of the civil war. Therefore, the goal of the Americans and the French now is to have a government and political infrastructure in Lebanon to cope with, and they are doing all their efforts so that Lebanon does not collapse. This is “our only hope now,” according to diplomatic sources.
