[ad_1]
Tony Issa wrote in “The Republic”: In the archive of the year 2020, in its entirety, perhaps the most worrying phrase for the Lebanese people is the one mentioned by the French Chancellor Jean-Yves Le Drian, and he wanted to repeat it: “Pay attention. Lebanon, as it is happening now, will reach a state of decomposition. “This description carries deep and very dangerous connotations, because it does not only mean the possibility of the collapse of the institutions, as in some stages of the civil war, but also the dissolution of Lebanon as a state or as an entity.
The French are rumored to have come to conclusions, based on information, facts and analysis, that present-day Lebanon, in its historical form, is in danger of disappearing for the first time in 100 years, under the pressure of the tensions and transformations that looming in the Middle East, and under the influence of regional and international conflicts, which can lead to Triturado.
The French fear that the economic, financial and monetary collapse is the entrance to the social, security and political collapse, that is, the collapse of the current state (the Taif state) and the current entity (the 1920 entity) and the rise of an alternate state (or states), and an alternate entity (or entities).
In this context, the following scenario is being discussed: if the French initiative to find a circumstantial settlement to the Lebanese situation is unsuccessful, and if Lebanon remains crushed under the pressure of the confrontation between Iran on the one hand and the United States and its Arab allies and Israel on the other hand, will then head towards disaster without controls, and with all senses. .
The poor, who today make up about 55% of the population, and of whom almost half go hungry, will increase their proportion and widen the gap between them and the rich. International “ration boxes” will not help reduce social tension. The evidence is reports from law enforcement of a notable increase in levels of regular crime during the year 2020.
Circles fear that the year 2021 will be a bad continuation of the current one, if circumstances demand that regional and international contenders continue their escalation and their mutual bets to improve conditions and achieve victories, which will postpone the chances of consensus, especially in the versus Washington-Tehran – even if the administration of President Donald Trump goes. And on the Israeli axis.
In this case, Lebanon will not have a chance to survive. Social attrition will lead to instability, while public sector employees, including members of security-conscious institutions and agencies, will suffer a total dissolution of their salaries, hampering their ability to perform their duties well.
As for the power system and the political class, it is most likely that it will be overwhelmed by open corruption files, in the eyes of the international community, and will find itself in a state of isolation and siege due to the successive sanctions of United States, which contain information that a “heavy” batch of them is being prepared, and they will go to all corners of the system.
In this state of total impotence and wear and tear, the fate of the State and the institutions will be on the table for discussion, and the regional and international powers interested in Lebanon will rush to consecrate their presence, so that they prevail in the “new Lebanon”, or so that they are not completely defeated, at least.
Here, observers speak about the following scenario: In light of this comprehensive attrition, international powers will rush to classify Lebanon as a failed state, requiring that the country and all of its capabilities be placed under international tutelage for a specified period. . During this period, solutions to the economic and social impasse will be worked out, negotiations with Israel on the borders will end and a new national contract will be approved between the Lebanese.
Of course, this scenario meets fierce opposition from Hezbollah, which considers its encirclement, and will face it with all its might. There are those who believe that disagreement here can lead to internal disagreement that is sectarian and sectarian in character, and requires swift sectarian negotiations and the approval of a new national formula.
Read the full article Press here.
