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The continuation of the military clashes and their intensification for the third consecutive week between the Armenian and Azeri forces around the Nagorno Karabakh region, as well as the failure of the ceasefire from its first day, opened the door to wide expectations of possible scenarios. what the crisis will lead to, based on the history of the events, their development and current repercussions, and their links with alliances. Regional.
On Monday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar called for the withdrawal of Armenian separatists from Nagorno-Karabakh, in a telephone conversation with Russia’s Defense Minister, who sponsored a truce announced on Saturday in the region, but which will soon was raped.
“Azerbaijan cannot wait another 30 years to reach a solution,” Akar said, referring to the first ceasefire that was reached in 1994 and led to the conflict freezing after a war that left some 30,000 people dead.
The Turkish newspaper “Habr Turk” confirmed that Ankara’s exclusion from the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is unrealistic, stating that Moscow may deploy its forces in the region under the pretext of chaos, as part of its efforts for Karabakh independence.
The Turkish newspaper explained that the region has become an indirect war zone that no one can fully control, and the vacuum created by the United States opens the way for Russia to increase its influence, noting that the war that resumed on 27 September has dangerous dimensions in terms of weapons and politics. Internal and geopolitical situation.
The ethnic dimension
From Istanbul, the researcher specialized in Turkish affairs, Saeed Al-Hajj believes that “the lack of response from Azerbaijan and Armenia to the Russian calls for calm and dialogue, favors the continuation of the confrontations between the two parties, mainly because Turkey is completely partial to Azerbaijan, while Russia and Iran call for a ceasefire “in exchange for the almost total absence of the United States and the silence of the European Union.”
Al-Hajj excludes expanding the fighting into open warfare, because this may turn it into a broader regional war, which Russia will not allow due to the geopolitical and economic importance of the region, as well as the intertwining and complexity of the system of alliances in it.
Al-Hajj told Al-Jazeera Net, “Baku is confident at the current stage to achieve rapid achievements on the ground that can become pressure documents on Armenia in any subsequent political process, because the nature of the mountainous region and its rugged roads they make it difficult to achieve a decisive military victory. “
He added: “It is unlikely that the Minsk group, in resolving the conflict in the Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia, is currently playing an influential role in resolving the crisis, while Turkey is critical of it and the United Nations. in light of its inability to advance the implementation of Security Council resolutions. “
The researcher on Turkish affairs believes that “Turkey is taking advantage of the absence of the United States, and is trying to establish an alternative regional or international framework to contribute to a solution of which it is a part.”
On this basis, Al-Hajj suggested that there would be Turkish-Russian understandings on the Caucasian crisis, similar to the understandings that were established between the two countries in Syria and Libya in the absence of the United States. Because the two countries have the potential to influence both sides of the conflict.
Consequently, the scenario of maintaining the status quo and moving between periods of calm and escalation is the most likely at present, while events on the ground could lead the two parties to a state of negotiation between the two parties with mediation. Russian or Russian-Turkish in the medium term, according to researcher Saeed Al-Hajj.
The Idlib stage
On September 30, 2020, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu proposed the idea of resolving the Karabakh conflict the “Syrian way”, establishing safe passages and conducting joint patrols in the areas of the proposed demarcation of the lines of separation between forces.
In the context, the Turkish military expert Ismail Hakki believes that the Russian military base in Armenia (which includes 5,000 troops) can play the role of Hmeimim’s base in Syria and become a guarantor to initiate a peaceful dialogue to resolve the conflict in Karabakh. .
Hakki told Al-Jazeera Net: “Turkey and Russia have the fundamental role to reach a settlement of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, so the only way to reach a settlement in the South Caucasus is through negotiation. , in line with the United Nations resolutions demanding the restoration of Baku’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and the respect of Baku’s rights. ” “The Armenians living in the region and the return of the refugees, making the Idlib scenario the most likely one for the future agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the foreseeable future.”
Armenia is likely to approve of this scenario in the event that the Azerbaijani army continues to take back large areas of the region, amidst the superiority of the Azerbaijani army with Turkish military support.
He added: “Among the proposed scenarios are the targeting of giant Turkish projects, including the railway line (Baku Tbilisi, Kars), the power transmission line (Baku Ceyhan) and the Silk Road plans that Turkey is discussing with. Beijing and Moscow alike, in case of inconvenience from the United States and the instruction to move stones there.
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