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However, the uncertainty of the Emiratis and Saudis about the reelection of Trump for a second term to rule the “superpower” benefits the Qataris, at least temporarily.
That sentiment spreading through the corridors of the palaces of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi does not contradict Trump’s interests. Rather, it can be beneficial for the man seeking additional earnings that increase the momentum of his campaign, who suffers the burdens of “Covid-19” and its consequences for the economy. The concern of Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed is to increase the preferences for Joseph Badin, should he take over the leadership, to close the file of conflict between brothers and enemies in the Gulf, not out of love for Qatar or hatred to Saudi Arabia, since both are reliable allies, but because that record is one of the legacies of Republican President Trump. . Just as the latter played to break much of what was considered an achievement of former US President Barack Obama, and his current candidate for deputy Biden, internally (health insurance, for example) and abroad (the nuclear agreement , for example), the supposed future Democratic president is expected to resort to the same formula to destroy the remains of his opponent. In a country that is witnessing a traditional party entrenchment, reaching unprecedented ranks today, it is affecting the electoral process that Trump doubts his credibility.
It is believed that the premise of Biden’s arrival, in light of opinion polls that gave the Democratic candidate a sustainable lead over several months, could push Trump to pressure his allies in Najd and Abu Dhabi, saying: Thank you. for your support for me to normalize with Israel, but this is not enough to achieve a qualitative achievement that is satisfying. White voters around me, and while I am accused of stoking the conflict in the Gulf, they have to give me more electoral papers, closing the file of conflict with their neighbor Qatar, perhaps this will help me keep the chair and take care of their interests against Qatar , it is better than being forced to conclude a reconciliation with your enemy. The little archer is under pressure from Biden, next on a possibly black horse, in the next election, less than six weeks later. A few days ago, the White House announced that Trump and the Saudi King, Salman bin Abdulaziz, discussed “ways to improve regional security, and urged Riyadh to negotiate with other Gulf countries to resolve the dispute,” which has been repeated. , since Trump’s support, in June 2017. A Saudi-Emirati plan to withdraw ambassadors from Doha and declare Qatar a rogue state that supports terrorism.
If Trump was re-elected, bin Salman and bin Zayed breathed a sigh of relief and fell into the hands of Tamim bin Hamad
It remains that the reconciliation file is open to all possibilities, including the fact that a meeting point has not been reached between the two parties in dispute. One of the hypotheses that may find resonance in this context is that Riyadh should reestablish its relations with Doha, albeit at a limited level, allowing the Qatar peninsula to bring its land and air departures back to life (it is believed that Saudi Arabia, in addition Egypt, they are the two countries over which Qatar has priority. To restore relations). Depending on the advanced scenario, Abu Dhabi, Manama and Cairo could announce the opening of their airspace to all aircraft passing through Saudi airspace or arriving at the Kingdom’s airports, just as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain did for aircraft. Israelis crossing UAE airspace, with one fundamental difference: that the relationship between Doha and Riyadh will not come. The heat that characterizes the announced alliance between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv.
In any case, the hypothesis that Biden will arrive will be ineffective on November 3. If Trump is re-elected, bin Salman and bin Zayed will breathe a sigh of relief and fall into the hands of Tamim bin Hamad, whose country will have to face another four years of politically and economically painful boycott. However, perhaps Doha has the right to thank heaven that a Saudi invasion did not take place, after, as reported in the old Western newspapers and by the Emir of Kuwait, it was at the table of the Saudis and their allies. .
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