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After the sanctions against Gebran Bassil, Lebanese attention should be directed to two main issues: the formation of the government, its course and its results. And demarcation. Do you continue or hinder?
Punishments and basilian revenge
Basil’s explicit statement is that he held Saad Hariri responsible for stripping him of the diplomatic immunity that he enjoyed when he was Foreign Minister. Bassil said that Hariri “advised him, with the formation of his second government, to be minister of foreign relations, so that he enjoys diplomatic immunity to avoid sanctions, for which he agreed.” Bassil went on to say what it means almost literally: “After his resignation, Hariri insisted on rejecting Bassil’s participation in any government, for which he would be subject to sanctions, unless he made severe political concessions.
Holding Bassil Hariri responsible for imposing sanctions on him will push him to seek opportunities to get back at him. It is a revenge that is no longer available as before.
But the sanctions could help Aoun and Bassil gain more and more Hezbollah support for them. And since Washington puts a clear veto on Hezbollah’s participation in the government, it will not be easy for Hariri to form a government with the party and avoid sanctions. There is political information on Lebanese political officials who are being informed of the existence of new sanctions lists, which affect figures from different political forces, including figures from the Future Movement on the black list. As for the decision to issue these sanctions, it is linked to a political circumstance and a political moment. Therefore, these threats remain a sword hanging over any political party in Lebanon.
One of Bassil’s reasons for obstructing the formation of the government and the ceiling he raised was his explicit declaration to adopt unity of standards in formation and his adherence to an expanded government. This means eliminating the government 18 and the principle of rotation, with the exception of one ministry. In other words, a zero return in training negotiations.
As for Hezbollah, it is considered that only the president of the republic has the keys to sign the government decrees. The information indicates that Aoun has not yet made a decision: will he step up his positions or will he adopt facilitation? But Basil’s words, which covered him with a tendency to facilitate, do not suggest that, and confirm that the contract will be long and the obstacles great.
Demarcation between Aoun and Nasrallah
The second file that will also be on the line is the delineation file. The next negotiation session next Wednesday will determine its fate, and if it will continue in a constructive way, or if the sanctions against Bassil will lead the President of the Republic to cling to the Lebanese claim of an area of more than two thousand kilometers. That is, starting from the area designated by the United States, which is 860 km. This makes negotiations difficult, so no progress is made. It should be noted that the negotiation session coincides with a position to be launched by Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to define the characteristics of the next phase.
The events point to many difficulties facing Lebanon, based on the results of the US elections and the loss of Donald Trump. There is more pressure and US sanctions.
The Israeli operation?
Next month will be the month of separation in the Central Bank’s financial reserve file. This means a further financial and economic collapse and a rise in the dollar exchange rate. This cannot be separated, in the event that border demarcation negotiations are hampered, from the possibility that Israel will use the few remaining weeks of Donald Trump in the White House to carry out a military or security operation in Lebanon: target Hezbollah military sites or any prominent figure in it.
These possibilities are mentioned in the calculations of the political forces, locally and abroad, and must be watched and monitored.
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