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Following the visit of the President of Armenia to the United Arab Emirates and his meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, and his brother Tahnoun, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia not to back down from the Karabakh agreement, thereby which led the media to question the matter that the UAE is planning in the Caucasus.
The ceasefire agreement announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin was not just a humanitarian truce, as has happened twice since the outbreak of the last round of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno Karabakh region, which the former occupied for almost three decades, but rather an agreement on the withdrawal of Armenia from the occupied territory. Or what remains of it after the Azerbaijani forces have already liberated most of it by force of arms.
But the announcement of the agreement unleashed a wave of anger towards the Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan, who was elected in 2018 and kept saying that “Karabakh is Armenia” during his election campaign and after his victory in office, despite the fact that the region is an Azerbaijani land occupied by Armenia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, four UN Security Council resolutions were issued confirming the inevitability of Armenia’s withdrawal from the occupied territory.
On the day the deal was announced, which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev described as a surrender document, dozens of angry Armenians stormed the government headquarters, calling Pashinyan a traitor, and a few days later it was announced that a Attempt to assassinate the prime minister had already been thwarted and that the repercussions of the agreement still continue in Armenia, and most likely. The Pashinyan government will be overthrown, according to observers.
What is the UAE’s relationship to the conflict?
Since the outbreak of the latest round of conflict between the two countries on September 27, the United Arab Emirates has announced its support for Armenia, which is pouring, according to observers, within the framework of the policy adopted by the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi to seek to expand the regional influence of his country and hostility towards Turkey on the other hand, since Ankara is a great ally of Azerbaijan. Their support played an important role in achieving victory in this round and reclaiming the occupied lands of Baku.
Here it is important to stop at the internal situation in Armenia, where the opposition parties demanded the government to revoke the agreement, while President Armen Sarkisyan turned away from the crisis, claiming that he was aware of the negotiations through the media and asked “Political consultations” to find a way out of the crisis.
In light of the fierce opposition to the agreement in Armenia led by the president himself, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan demanded to resign and hold snap elections, Sarkisian made a “working visit” to the United Arab Emirates, during which he met with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.
“As part of the visit, Sarkisian held a meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, during which the two sides discussed ways to strengthen beneficial bilateral cooperation between them, especially in the fields of economy and investment, “the Armenian presidency said in a statement.
See also: They crawled like dogs on the run. “Watch” everything you want to know about the defeat of Armenia in Karabakh, thanks to the Turkish “Bayraktar”
While Serkisan was in the Emirates, Azerbaijani Vice President Hikmat Hajiyev announced that Armenia will be given an additional deadline, until November 25, to evacuate the occupied city of Kalbjar, due to weather conditions in the region.
Many observers believe it is difficult to exclude Bin Zayed and the Armenian president’s discussion of the Nagorno Karabakh agreement, which was preceded by Turkish warnings to Yerevan that the terms of the agreement must be respected by injecting civilian blood.
In this context, observers believe that the UAE may try to persuade the currently defeated Armenians to try to revoke the agreement after a short period and return to the fight, especially since the agreement may overthrow the current government led by Pashinyan, and the exodus of many Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to be the gateway to that withdrawal. .
Kelsey Norman, a researcher at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, expressed this possibility in an interview with the US site Responsible Statecraft, saying that “the country that receives displaced persons or helps them to integrate and settle, or makes it difficult for them to life so that they continue to insist on returning to their homes. Maneuver them whenever you want.
It seems clear that the possibility that Yerevan will withdraw from the agreement is increasing with the passage of time, and this is what Vladimir Putin warned on Tuesday, saying that the withdrawal of Armenia from the Karabakh agreement would be suicide for her, explaining in a communicated to Russian official television that the agreement contributed to bloodshed. : “The legal status of the Karabakh region has not been agreed. Future generations will determine the status of the region.”
Putin spoke for the first time about the merits of the agreement, saying: “I convinced the Azerbaijani president to stop the conflict, and his only condition was the return of the refugees to their areas, including the city of Shusha,” and indicated that Armenia did not accepted this, at first. He explained: “Pashinyan saw in this condition a threat to the interests of Armenia and said that the conflict would continue.”
Regarding the Turkish military presence in the Karabakh region, Putin said: “Turkey always supports Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan is an independent and sovereign state and has the right to choose its allies.”
He added: “The Turkish presence in the Karabakh region can be assessed from various aspects, but it is difficult to accuse Ankara of violating international law.” Putin claimed that his country had agreed with Turkey to establish a center to monitor the progress of the agreement, and that Azerbaijan would determine the location of this center.
It should be noted that the President of Armenia visited Abu Dhabi and met with his crown prince Mohammed bin Zayed and national security adviser Tahnoun bin Zayed, while the UAE faces accusations about its support for the war in the region in dispute with Azerbaijan, which threatens the ceasefire between the two countries.
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