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It is customary to know who won the presidency on election night, as most of the results of the previous presidential elections were released in succession at night, after the polls closed and the vote counting began. Except for the famous 2000 elections in which US President George Bush and the Democratic candidate Al Gore competed. At that time, the Supreme Court was forced to intervene after a recount in Florida, where the result was very tight, and decided the race in favor of Bush on December 12 of the same year. The reason at the time was the great convergence in the votes obtained by the two candidates, which made Florida the decisive primary in the contest.
The electoral college system that a candidate needs to win the presidency makes some states essential to the decision. That is why the focus is absent from the popular vote, and the focus is on the states that will change the equation.
Also, what is different this year is that the voting-by-mail process has been greatly expanded due to the Corona virus, which will pose a challenge for some states to count the votes and cast them in an acceptable time. While some states (Colorado, for example) are used to voting by mail, other states will experience this experiment in large numbers for the first time in their history. Mail ballot counting laws also differ from state to state. While some states (like Florida) allow votes to be counted as soon as they arrive before Election Day, other states require waiting until Election Day to count these votes. Here the delay can occur.
However, these data do not mean that the outcome of the contest will not be decided quickly, so all eyes are directed to certain states that will release the results on election night, which can decide the contest in advance.
According to polling company “538 – Five Thirty Eight” yesterday, which compiles the results of most national polls on its site, Biden has a 52% chance of winning nationwide, while Trump’s chances reach 43.3%. However, states with the highest number of votes in the electoral college can reverse the electoral equation, even if a candidate wins the popular vote, which is what happened in 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton obtained 2.87 million more votes. than his Republican rival Trump, but he did not. He only gets 227 votes in the electoral college, compared to 304 for Trump.
In an effort to see if the race will be decided early, political analysts are turning their eyes to the next few states that are expected to announce the winner Tuesday night.
Florida
This state has 29 electoral votes, making it the most important state on election night. If the results are published at that time and the difference is large between the two candidates, they can decide the presidential race.
If the state were to win in favor of Trump, his chances of winning would increase by several percentage points. In this scenario, Biden could maintain his leadership at the national level, but would need to win swing states like Michigan (16 electoral college votes), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). These states are not used to counting votes by mail and will not start counting the results until Election Day. In addition, the state of Pennsylvania will receive voting cards after Election Day, as long as the voter puts them in the mailbox on November 3, which means that election results in this scenario will not be issued on Tuesday evening. night and that the election result may be delayed. Days or even weeks, in case of legal challenges for the results of the screening tests in any of these states. If Biden wins Florida, his chances of winning will increase.
Arizona
It is the other state that can issue results on election night. This state changed its laws this year to start counting votes early, after a long delay in 2016, when the result took days to be published. While this state has only 11 electoral votes, its announcement of a decisive outcome Tuesday night could dramatically change national expectations. And expectations indicate that Biden’s chances of winning will be significantly reduced if the Republican president wins again in Arizona.
North Carolina
Opinion polls in this state, which participates with 15 votes in the electoral college, show a close race between Trump and Biden, especially since more than half of its voters (7.3 million) cast their votes early. Biden’s victory in this state is important and will greatly increase his chances of winning, while Trump’s victory there will improve his chances of winning a second term.
Texas
Many polls rank this historically red state on the undecided state list. Texas, which participates in the electoral college with 38 votes, has put in place many conditions to allow some voters to vote by mail due to the Corona virus, as they require the voter to be 65 years or older, or have a compelling excuse to vote for mail. Therefore, many in this state will vote in the present state snap elections or on Election Day, which will likely result in the results being released on Election Night. Biden still has little chance of winning the state (one in three). But in an unlikely scenario, a Biden victory in Texas would ensure the US wave is swept away and the race decided in his favor immediately.
