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Hadeel Farfour wrote in “Al-Akhbar”:
Actual infections with the coronavirus are estimated, according to a new study by the “Islamic Health Authority”, seven times more than announced by the Ministry of Health. While it is likely that the community immunity rate in Lebanon, before the start of vaccination operations, as of Monday, reached 35% of residents. It is striking in the study that the community immunity rate varies between regions. Residents of Nabatiyeh and Beirut provinces, for example, have antibodies that are 30% and 40% lower, respectively, than the rest of the regions.
As of mid-December, the “community immunity” rate was estimated at 16%, according to a study conducted by the Islamic Health Authority in cooperation with the Ministry of Health. This was before the “explosion” of daily injuries and the great outbreak of the epidemic, which yesterday recorded 63 deaths, bringing the total number of victims to 3,866, and 3,136 new infections (18 of them imported) from 20,706 examinations. .
The director general of the authority, author of the study, Dr. Abbas Hoballah, explained to “Al-Akhbar” that if the data of this study were based and projected on the great spread witnessed by the country in the last two months, “We suggest that the percentage of injured may have reached 35% ”, noting that the authority in a second study is preparing that it will complete the course of the first and keep up to date with the evolution of the epidemiological reality.
It is true that the study that monitored the percentage of immune antibodies in 2,177 samples preceded the spread of the mutated British strain of the virus which has a 70% greater spreading capacity than the “parent” virus and is currently controlling infections. , these numbers would shed light on aspects of several that should be stopped.
To begin with, the study concludes that only 2% of those with “hugged” IgG antibodies were aware of their infection, while 98% were unaware of their exposure to the virus “either because they had no symptoms or because some of them did not recur. to carry out the pcr test and other reasons ”.
It was estimated that until December 15 the number of infected by the virus was 774 thousand, or 16% of the total of residents whose number (according to the study) was estimated at four million and 842 thousand, highlighting that the Ministry of Health Health figures on confirmed cases up to the same date referred to 105,430 infected. In practice, this means that the number of actual injuries exceeds those confirmed by the Ministry of Health by more than seven times, and that the Ministry of Health has tested only about 13.6% of actual injuries. This reinforces what those involved in the Corona file are circulating that the number of actual injuries exceeds those proven and announced, which would “shake” the accuracy of the mortality rate and the hospitalization rate. As is known, these two percentages are determined based on the number of confirmed, declared, not real injuries.
In addition, there is data to which the study refers “that would help in the vaccination process”, according to the love of God, noting that the study concluded, for example, that residents of the governorates of Nabatiyeh and Beirut have 30% and 40% less antibodies respectively than the rest of the regions. “What can help in the next stages to determine priorities in the granting of the vaccine to regions without others.” The same applies to large municipalities, as the study indicates, for example, that the community immunity rate in the Salam neighborhood reached 18.6%, while it reached 12% in Ghobeiry. Therefore, “these data can be relied upon to return the survey and assess the situation to distribute the vaccines.”
In addition, the Minister of Health, Hamad Hassan, announced yesterday that the vaccine will arrive in Lebanon next Saturday afternoon, “so the vaccination will begin on Sunday and the implementation of the national plan will begin on Monday,” noting that achieving the community immunization by means of the vaccine gives hope to face the epidemic.
Is it possible for the Ministry of Health to adopt a criterion of availability of immune antibodies in former patients to determine the first to receive the vaccine? As previously announced by the Ministry, it does not seem that the option of postponing the vaccination of the first infected is strongly possible, and it can be further excluded with the discussion of the existence of mutated strains that do not prevent a “second” contagion. since the criterion of “screening” in the first stage continues to be related to age groups that are over 65 years or more, as well as people with chronic diseases, health sector workers, among others.
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