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Despite the suspicions surrounding the China-Iran deal, which the Iranian regime called “strategic” to emerge from economic crises.
Last June, Iranian media revealed a controversial agreement between Iran and China, which includes bilateral cooperation in the economic, political, cultural and military fields for the next 25 years, and Beijing pledged to invest $ 400 billion to improve the Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and transportation.
Some observers were quick to point out that this agreement shows not only China’s ambition, but also the failure of the Trump administration’s so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran, which has pushed Iran to turn to China, and others have indicated that It will give Tehran a firm stance when negotiating with the administration of President-elect Joe Biden.
But Foreign Policy magazine believes they are exaggerating China’s willingness and ability to help Iran by defying the United States. He noted that although China has been Iran’s largest trading partner since 2009, it is still a secondary partner of China. Even in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are ahead of Iran when it comes to trade with China.
According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, Sino-Iranian trade peaked in 2014 at $ 51.85 billion, equivalent to 1.2 percent of Beijing’s total foreign trade volume, and then declined since then. In the same year, China’s trade with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reached $ 69.15 billion and $ 54.8 billion, respectively.
In contrast, the volume of Sino-US trade in that year reached $ 555 billion, equivalent to 12.9 percent of China’s total foreign trade. Therefore, the magazine believes that Beijing will not sacrifice all this to get closer to Tehran.
The magazine emphasized that Tehran is for China, only one of the relationships that Beijing needs to manage in the region.
The idea of a comprehensive Sino-Iranian deal was proposed in early 2016 by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his official visit to Iran. Immediately afterward, Chinese companies began arriving in Tehran, but were greeted with a lukewarm welcome from Iranians, who prefer everything Western.
Fear of sanctions
After the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions on Tehran, many Chinese companies also suspended their projects or left Iran just as their Western counterparts did, due to the blocking of payment channels and increased risks. when investing in the Iranian market.
So, after the deal was announced, an Iranian businessman who was dealing with China sarcastically questioned media reports and indicated in the Iranian press that Chinese banks refuse to negotiate with Iran and close the bank accounts of Iranian students. and Iranian companies in China due to pressure from US sanctions, and said: “And how? He will participate in an agreement that will save Iran from US sanctions. “
As for the military association included in the agreement, which provides for Beijing to establish a military base on the Iranian island of Kish, the American magazine has questioned it, due to the popular Iranian rejection of any presence on its soil, in addition to the desire of China for not bringing Iran too close in its security field. Since 2008, Iran has wanted to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-led Eurasian economy and security alliance.
Despite apparent recent support from Russia, China has not allowed Iran to become a full member of the organization. Beijing is likely to continue to prevent Iranian membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the future, in order to preserve its relations with the Middle Eastern countries and not align itself with any party in this dispute, which will affect its interests.
Iranian maneuver
The magazine confirmed that this alleged deal is primarily an Iranian maneuver at China’s expense, and that it is an “Iranian public relations ploy”, and that it is trying to calm the national public opinion of discontent due to the economic situation that China supports Iran, and to show that America’s maximum pressure campaign has failed.
He added that Beijing knows that if it chooses to cooperate closely with Iran, any future escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran (which could easily happen) would further strain the already delicate relations between Beijing and Washington. So if the United States plays its cards carefully, China is unlikely to side with Iran.
He explained that it will be the ultimate goal of China’s foreign policy in the coming years is to repair its relations with the United States, so any possible agreement with Iran will only be subject to this greater need.
Notably, the deal came under severe criticism from the Iranians, and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad described the deal in a speech he delivered in late June as a “suspicious secret deal” that the Iranian people would never accept.
The opposition cited earlier Chinese investment projects that left African and Asian countries ultimately owed to the Beijing authorities, and their main concern is proposals to establish ports, including two along the coast of the Sea of Oman. , one of them in Jask on the outskirts of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf, which would give the Chinese a strategic point in the waters through which most of the world’s oil passes.
