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Based on what economists estimate is intersecting, Lebanon no longer has a chance to waste time, in line with what has been practiced in recent years. For every minute or second, it is very expensive, and Lebanon, as it is, cannot pay anything.
And based on what an international expert revealed to Al-Gomhoria, the IMF may impose preconditions before agreeing to start financing the plan. This will raise the limit of the challenge for the government, as it will be required to start implementing the reforms before obtaining any statement from the fund. Therefore, the situation would be similar to the Cedar money that should have flowed, after Lebanon started implementing agreed reforms, which did not happen. Consequently, there is concern that Cedar’s experience with the International Monetary Fund will be repeated, and that Lebanon is left alone to face its fate.
Arrangements
As agreed by experts in economics and finance, the need is to speed up the government to reform the steps, and the immediate appointment of authorities that regulate electricity, communications, and civil aviation, especially since several international institutions viewed this delay as a scandal, and accused officials in Lebanon of acting against the interest of their country and trying to sabotage it, and in A Parallel Line Closing Out Scandalous Gaps in the Lebanese Administration, Especially the Completion of Appointments in the Governance of the Banque du Lebanese and the Committee on Banking Supervision and Financial Markets, and most important of all is the confirmation of the independence of the Lebanese judiciary, and this requires first of all the liberation of the judicial problems prepared by the High Council of the Judiciary on the basis of efficiency and class. And if the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, had indicated that there are gaps in him without specifying what it is, then these formations were previously returned to the Judicial Council, which insisted on them while preparing them for politicization, which maintains the Training ball on the court of the President of the Republic.
The weak point
However, Lebanon’s weakness in these negotiations is not only financially, economically, socially and lively eroded, but the Lebanese negotiator does not enjoy the immunity required for his position in these difficult negotiations, due to the unified political reality behind the government. , in addition to this internal separation on an international Critical fund, between reassuring the deal with the Fund, since resorting to it is the only way available to Lebanon, and between what it calls “impossible conditions”, protection and confiscation of a decision, based on previous experiences between the Fund and various countries that were under the tutelage of the Fund.
Rounds of negotiations
Meanwhile, sources in the Finance Ministry told Al-Jumhuriya: “We cannot say that we are optimistic or pessimistic about the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, although many reasons lead to optimism.”
He noted that “the Lebanese side is ready to start serious negotiations with the IMF, prepare its full files for this right and prepare to enter multiple rounds of negotiations, knowing that the positive signals we receive from the fund lead us to believe that we cannot face a long way from negotiations. “
In response to a question, sources said: “The archive is ready and they are confident that the government’s rescue plan has all the specifications that make it compelling for the International Monetary Fund and for the entire international community, especially since many of the plan’s participants were not far from the bottom. “
As for whether Lebanon is concerned about the IMF, sources said: “So far, we do not see that there is a reason to worry about the International Monetary Fund. We do not want to anticipate. In any case, we are going to negotiate under the roof of the plan. rescue, which we see as a roadmap. ” The way out of the crisis, and not under any other roof, be it political or non-political.
The sources drew attention to “that if we finish easily and quickly with the International Monetary Fund, this facilitates us to negotiate more with the creditors, and then we go directly to” Cedar “to benefit from its benefits. In this case, it is not excluded that some countries come to extend the hand of direct assistance “. For Lebanon. “
Lebanese interest
Furthermore, it is clear that the government is putting all its eggs in the basket of negotiations with the fund, hoping that it will achieve the desired results. Serail government circles told Al-Jumhuriya: “We are about to enter into historical and Egyptian negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, and we are counting on achieving the qualitative change in the economic situation towards the détente that we envision with the implementation of the government plan. “
In response to a question about the IMF’s concerns, the circles said: “There is a fear among some parties that the IMF will impose severe conditions on Lebanon, to the point of imposing guardianship on it, and there are those who fear the recent words of the undersecretary of State David Schenker, who hoped to Put the economy of Lebanon under the supervision of the International Monetary Fund. What we can assure is that Lebanon will negotiate with the fund on its terms, which begin and end in the interest of Lebanon and, therefore Therefore, what is in the interest of Lebanon in which we agree, and what is not in this interest with which we will not agree, or with anything that conflicts with its national sovereignty. This is simply the case. “
Diplomatic encouragement
Furthermore, ministerial sources concerned about the “republic’s” economic plan reflected relief from the movement of Western and international ambassadors and diplomats, which has intensified in recent days. She said: “The ambassadors and diplomats expressed their express appreciation for the content of the plan, and we feel a clear encouragement and readiness to provide assistance to Lebanon. But with a renewed emphasis on Lebanon to initiate reform measures.”
A chance of recovery … is possible
This matter, according to information from the “Republic”, was reaffirmed by a senior official before several ministers, who said: “It is known that the collapse of the Lebanese economy is no longer a hypothesis, but has become a tangible reality , and the government has said that it established the rescue plan to avoid disastrous situations for the country, We share this opinion on disastrous scenarios, with the assurance that we have a series of observations on the plan that will be presented at the right time, especially during the discussion of related issues in the House of Representatives. “
He added: “Faced with this reality, I am sure that the government cannot answer the fateful question posed by every Lebanese: how long can the citizen still resist? Therefore, it is not enough to reassure the citizen with words, but with the steps that should accompany the Lebanese negotiator’s work with the IMF. The International has excluded him from auctions of political games, which unfortunately have been carried out for many years with the worst children’s games. “
The senior official stated: “Despite the level reached by the collapse, the opportunity for recovery is still possible and available, and the government has a series of corrective initiatives that should be accelerated, and perhaps the first is to immediately seek the construction of the Necessary political consensus on the reform axioms, What is released money, or rather IMF loans, after which “Give in” will be launched.
Most important of all, the official added: “These axioms restore part of his face in Lebanon, which was lost with the lack of confidence of the international community, due to impurities and sins that were committed at all levels, the most important of which is the permissibility of loans and foreign aid, swallowing them and distributing them to the lucky ones and the breakers. ” In recent years, Lebanon has always received “reprimand messages” from multiple international levels, expressing strong indignation that the aid provided by these countries has gone to the pockets of some officials and their supporters.
Harsh conditions
Furthermore, a western diplomatic source told Al-Jumhuriya that Lebanon should improve the management of its negotiations with the IMF, in order to achieve rapid results, because the fund is not fully dedicated to Lebanon and will not give it all its time, as there are dozens of difficult countries waiting.
In response to a question about whether the international community is in the process of providing aid to Lebanon, the source clarified: “Today, the international community is experiencing concern about the” Crown “crisis and its negative effects on the economies of the world, and before the stage of concern about stagnation or recession due to the impact of trade wars between the main countries that drive the economy. If this is the image of the international community and its priorities, Lebanon is certainly not among them , and here openness requires that the international community and beyond “Corona” be less willing to be generous to Lebanon. From here, whenever Lebanon has only the IMF it must surely expect Exponential conditions from the bottom. “
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